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Post by AztecBill on Aug 27, 2014 9:24:26 GMT -8
Bill you do a tremendous job with the stats and feel that RPI is very important. It may look good if the Lobos OOC's record is say 12-2 but people see who they are beating. IMO you can not just put lipstick on the Mountain Goat teams of the MW and fool the people making decisions for MM . The selection group wants to see your schedule and what quality teams have you beaten and if you slipped against poor teams. How much is a victory over them or the other goats going to be worth? On the other hand losing to them could hurt @ Wyoming last year. . The selection group knows that coaches have an opportunity to put together their OOC and challenge their team. Coach Fisher must know something or why would he put together a decent to challenging OOC schedule , because he believes the Aztecs need it to get a decent seed in MM . He has requested that the MW go to a shorter conference schedule but been told NO ,or maybe we go to a full 20 game schedule . The Rebels also saw this and put together a monster OOC , that I believe will help rather then hurt them in the end . Aztecs and Rebels are saying they feel they belong with the top 25 . The middle group UNM , CSU , BSU... what message are they putting out there and IMO only hurts the Aztecs and themselves in the end . You have far too much faith in the selection group. They look at a lot of things and are influenced by numbers whether you think so or not. If UNLV had won one more game changing our top 100 wins from 6-3 to 9-3 would they say, "well 3 of those games were against UNLV who barely made the top 100"? No! They would be impressed. Funny thing about beating a team 3 times knocking them out of the top 100 is that losing to them once may make you better in their eyes. If we lost to UNLV once, that would change our top 100 wins from 6-3 to 8-4, since it would move UNLV into the top 100. They do look at RPI. Having one that is in the teens makes an impression. If you are in the mid 30s having a couple of good wins is much more important. If the Lobos are 12-2 OOC this season they will barely make the top 100 of RPI. RPI reflects a lot of what you say they look to. But when they see we beat a lobos team that is #94, they will not look to see how that #94 was achieved, they will give us credit for winning 3 games against the Lobos who are #94. I am not nearly as convinced as you that the MWC will be so bad this season. Winning all those games in 2012 OOC was a surprise. We will have to play the games to get a feel of where we stand. Most everyone here thought the MWC would again be better than the Pac-12 last season and are sure we won't be this season. Both feelings are based upon the prior year. This is a new season. We were wrong last year, we could be wrong again this season.
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Post by standiego on Aug 27, 2014 13:21:12 GMT -8
CSU- MBB OOC games, are they supposed to be a top 4 MW team ? Ft Lewis Montana Georgia State Mercer Mizzu State Anchorage Shoot Out Anchorage " At Colorado Ark- Fort Smith At New Mexico State At Denver Charleston Southern UTEP North Colorado So if they come into MW play 12-2 , is someone impressed ? Yes I do believe it is easy to look at teams OOC schedule and see who they play and what their results were.
The MW was close to the PAC a few years ago but the pendulum has moved back to the PAC being a much better conference. Arizona , UCLA ... Results of MM are to me the measuring points.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 27, 2014 13:27:15 GMT -8
CSU- MBB OOC games, are they supposed to be a top 4 MW team ? Ft Lewis Montana Georgia State Mercer Mizzu State Anchorage Shoot Out Anchorage " At Colorado Ark- Fort Smith At New Mexico State At Denver Charleston Southern UTEP North Colorado So if they come into MW play 12-2 , is someone impressed ? Yes I do believe it is easy to look at teams OOC schedule and see who they play and what their results were. The MW was close to the PAC a few years ago but the pendulum has moved back to the PAC being a much better conference. Arizona , UCLA ... Results of MM are to me the measuring points. Results in "MM" have too few data points to be conclusive, unless you think the PAC-12 was better than the MWC in 2013 because UNLV lost to Cal.
For the Aztecs, it is much better if our conference mates all played the weakest Div I teams they can. So I am not upset with CSU or UNM's schedule at all.
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Post by pbbroker on Aug 27, 2014 13:28:02 GMT -8
I am so incredibly happy that Coach Fisher scheduled a game on 12/4/14 (or 12,414). The idea of a game on this date was embraced on this forum and was a topic of discussion on the old Ben Higgens and Chris Ello show (which I dearly miss). And the fact that we play USD - Perfect!! I can't wait to see what kind of special festivities they have planned. Better yet, the SPORTSBOOK @ USD is taking action on it, so no trips to TJ for wagers.
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Post by sdcoug on Aug 27, 2014 14:18:14 GMT -8
CSU- MBB OOC games, are they supposed to be a top 4 MW team ? Ft Lewis Montana Georgia State Mercer Mizzu State Anchorage Shoot Out Anchorage " At Colorado Ark- Fort Smith At New Mexico State At Denver Charleston Southern UTEP North Colorado So if they come into MW play 12-2 , is someone impressed ? Yes I do believe it is easy to look at teams OOC schedule and see who they play and what their results were. The MW was close to the PAC a few years ago but the pendulum has moved back to the PAC being a much better conference. Arizona , UCLA ... Results of MM are to me the measuring points. I'd be impressed if they went 12-2! Although not the toughest schedule overall, there are plenty of potential pitfalls & some very competitive & respectable teams. Starting at the top - Montana should be much improved and battle for the Big Sky tourney berth. Georgia St was a couple points from an NCAA tourney berth & won the regular season last year. Mercer beat Duke in the dance (although they lose a ton); they could face UCSB, who I think will be fighting for their conference title; Colorado on the road is a brutal game - NCAA tourney team most likely; at NMSU isn't a gimme (tourney last year); UTEP is respectable and trending up. Going 12-2 (or 11-2 assuming Ft Lewis is exhibition) isn't going to hurt them IMO, nor us, nor the MWC. Failing a few times (e.g. 9-4) will hurt them though so little margin for error.
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Post by HollywoodAztec on Aug 27, 2014 15:00:28 GMT -8
Northridge will not be an automatic win. They lost by two points in their conference final of going to the big dance. They are coached by Reggie Theus and return almost their entire team. We will be playing a lot of new kids for that game. We will win, but this is no gimme game out of the shoot. I hope Northridge has a nice season. That would be a schedule plus. I wonder if this is part of a home and home or a buy. With one exhibition game scheduled, I suspect the Aztecs will have a closed scrimmage. That should help getting ready for Northridge. Theus is doing a good job in resurrecting his reputation. He could potentially be the next HC at UNLV if Rice doesn't pan out. Question - why do we keep scheduling SD Christian? Can we not entice any of the other SoCal schools in Big West or WCC to come?
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 27, 2014 15:04:40 GMT -8
I hope Northridge has a nice season. That would be a schedule plus. I wonder if this is part of a home and home or a buy. With one exhibition game scheduled, I suspect the Aztecs will have a closed scrimmage. That should help getting ready for Northridge. Theus is doing a good job in resurrecting his reputation. He could potentially be the next HC at UNLV if Rice doesn't pan out. Question - why do we keep scheduling SD Christian? Can we not entice any of the other SoCal schools in Big West or WCC to come? I would rather play them than Ball State. That one hurts. Playing SD Christian is a free pass on RPI Killing options. They replace a game we would have to purchase. We would spend $75K and hurt our RPI. The game would probably be no better.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 27, 2014 15:13:52 GMT -8
The MWC has been much better recently as can be seen in the table below. MWC teams AP Ranking high water mark Team | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | Total | Average | SDSU | 5 | 15 | 13 | 4 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 4 | 9.25 | UNM | 17 | 10 | 18 | NA | 8 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 4 | 13.25 | UNLV | NA | 18 | 11 | 20 | 18 | NA | NA | 19 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 5 | 17.2 | CSU | NA | 22 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1 | 22 | BYU | NA | NA | NA | 3 | 12 | 25 | 20 | 21 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 5 | 16.2 | Utah | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 25 | NA | NA | NA | 13 | NA | 22 | NA | 12 | 15 | 5 | 17.4 | AFA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 13 | NA | NA | 25 | NA | NA | NA | NA | 2 | 19 | Total | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 16.33 |
We have had more teams ranked higher in recent years. We had 5 teams ranked in the first 7 years (average ranking 17.4) and 21 teams ranked in the last 8 years (average ranking 15.1). SDSU (9.25), UNLV (16.8), and UNM (13.3) have each been ranked in 4 of the past 5 years.
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 27, 2014 15:36:14 GMT -8
Is it time to buy USD games instead of offering a home and home ??
Right now playing them every year is a favor to them.
UCLA wouldn't give Long Beach State a home and home, why should we with USD ?
Change the contract to an optional home and home which they get only if they have a sufficiently good record. Otherwise it is played at Viejas for a fee.
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Post by adammclane on Aug 27, 2014 18:31:20 GMT -8
I hope Northridge has a nice season. That would be a schedule plus. I wonder if this is part of a home and home or a buy. With one exhibition game scheduled, I suspect the Aztecs will have a closed scrimmage. That should help getting ready for Northridge. Question - why do we keep scheduling SD Christian? Can we not entice any of the other SoCal schools in Big West or WCC to come? Because Coach wants to invest in local teams. He says it every year. They play USD, SD Christian, and PLNU because it's good for those teams. Notice we didn't take Saint Katherine's again though.
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Post by Gundo on Aug 27, 2014 20:43:09 GMT -8
Question - why do we keep scheduling SD Christian? Can we not entice any of the other SoCal schools in Big West or WCC to come? Because Coach wants to invest in local teams. He says it every year. They play USD, SD Christian, and PLNU because it's good for those teams. Notice we didn't take Saint Katherine's again though. St. Kate is playing UNLV, SJSU and Fresno St this year. They are also playing Santa Clara, so other D1 MW schools are facing them. But they are such a cup cake.
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Post by ignoranus on Aug 28, 2014 7:20:29 GMT -8
usd usually gives the Aztecs a good test for the city championship. And is a D1 opponent. Also, the travel expense for the road game certainly helps the annual budget. May make it easier to pay stipends in the future.
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Post by sleepy on Aug 28, 2014 12:24:24 GMT -8
First read -- without getting into the RPI nuts & bolts -- is that this is a pretty lackluster home schedule. Moreover, the best OOC home game is played at 2:00 on a Tuesday. I really hope the rest of the MWC surprises me and turns out to be beasts, although the preliminary indicators are that teams such as UNLV and the Hobos will sink a bit, so that there will be at least some intrigue.
Those making the road trips and the MWCT will end up watching the most competitive games, cause we sure won't see much in the way of competition at Viejas.
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Post by lovethelibrary on Aug 28, 2014 14:44:51 GMT -8
IMO if USD ever turned around their program and turned into a true competitive rival, it would be great for basketball in San Diego and ultimately great for SDSU as well. Keeping them on the schedule is a benefit to SDSU, even if they ding the RPI a little bit right now.
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Post by sdcoug on Aug 28, 2014 15:40:34 GMT -8
IMO if USD ever turned around their program and turned into a true competitive rival, it would be great for basketball in San Diego and ultimately great for SDSU as well. Keeping them on the schedule is a benefit to SDSU, even if they ding the RPI a little bit right now. USD had an average RPI last year; definitely not a team that hurt ours. They were on par with Butler & FL Gulf Coast, and better than Long Beach St but I'd guess many wouldn't have an issue playing those teams? It's a great match-up & hope its one that continues.
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Post by HollywoodAztec on Sept 2, 2014 15:00:25 GMT -8
Question - why do we keep scheduling SD Christian? Can we not entice any of the other SoCal schools in Big West or WCC to come? Because Coach wants to invest in local teams. He says it every year. They play USD, SD Christian, and PLNU because it's good for those teams. Notice we didn't take Saint Katherine's again though. I admire what Fisher is doing and how realizes the importance our team brings to the local universities of San Diego. As you said, it's good for those teams. However, isn't UCSD a more competitive team to play against than either SD Christian or PLNU? I'd imagine that a school with ambition to join the Big West would attract better players than the two aforementioned schools, thus giving us more competitive games.
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 2, 2014 16:26:52 GMT -8
IMO if USD ever turned around their program and turned into a true competitive rival, it would be great for basketball in San Diego and ultimately great for SDSU as well. Keeping them on the schedule is a benefit to SDSU, even if they ding the RPI a little bit right now. USD had an average RPI last year; definitely not a team that hurt ours. They were on par with Butler & FL Gulf Coast, and better than Long Beach St but I'd guess many wouldn't have an issue playing those teams? It's a great match-up & hope its one that continues. USD takes a slot of a home and home that we could get with someone else. They would take a slot that we use to pay someone else. They would replace a team like Ball State and a team like Utah, Cincinnati, Washington, Kansas (4 current home and homes) would replace them.
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Post by sdsudevil on Sept 2, 2014 16:36:10 GMT -8
USD had an average RPI last year; definitely not a team that hurt ours. They were on par with Butler & FL Gulf Coast, and better than Long Beach St but I'd guess many wouldn't have an issue playing those teams? It's a great match-up & hope its one that continues. USD takes a slot of a home and home that we could get with someone else. They would take a slot that we use to pay someone else. They would replace a team like Ball State and a team like Utah, Cincinnati, Washington, Kansas (4 current home and homes) would replace them. In the vein of a big game, I see your point. That game is awesome for the City though, and it is our real true rival in basketball. Just because we have pwned them recently shouldn't mean we stop having them as a perennial HnH. I hope they just get better, to make it more interesting.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 2, 2014 16:42:14 GMT -8
As mentioned before, that December 27th or Christmas week is the Torrey Pines Holiday Classic, which the entire staff tends to be at. They would not schedule anyone that week who they had to seriously watch film and plan for, simply isn't time to do so.
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Post by AzTex on Sept 2, 2014 17:31:10 GMT -8
USD takes a slot of a home and home that we could get with someone else. They would take a slot that we use to pay someone else. They would replace a team like Ball State and a team like Utah, Cincinnati, Washington, Kansas (4 current home and homes) would replace them. In the vein of a big game, I see your point. That game is awesome for the City though, and it is our real true rival in basketball. Just because we have pwned them recently shouldn't mean we stop having them as a perennial HnH. I hope they just get better, to make it more interesting. Last year's game was about as interesting as I can stand.
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