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Post by AztecBill on Dec 18, 2013 15:50:10 GMT -8
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Post by aztecmusician on Dec 24, 2013 10:23:54 GMT -8
I am still waiting for that legit Major League bat the Padres need to be a consistent run producing team.
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 26, 2013 10:45:35 GMT -8
I am still waiting for that legit Major League bat the Padres need to be a consistent run producing team. Which position do you think will be below average next year? Assuming Venable in CF and Deno/Smith platoon in RF .
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 26, 2013 14:36:40 GMT -8
That doesn't really answer my question. If we are above average at every position we will be well above average overall i.e. scoring. So which position would we not be above average?
One position that you think we are below average offensively.
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 26, 2013 15:15:20 GMT -8
Again you choose not to name a position. What one position would you improve? They needed to improve RF and choose to platoon again with Deno.
I think Venable in CF, Quentin in RF, Headley at 3B, Gyorko at 2B, and Caberea at SS could all be well above average.
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 26, 2013 15:32:41 GMT -8
I didn't think you would name a position. Once you start looking position by position it is hard to pick one in which the Padres don't have an interesting option. It has been pitching and injuries that have limited our success.
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Post by aztecmusician on Dec 26, 2013 18:45:29 GMT -8
I didn't think you would name a position. Once you start looking position by position it is hard to pick one in which the Padres don't have an interesting option. It has been pitching and injuries that have limited our success. Catcher is weak right now. I know there are some prospects in the farm system, but right now Hundley isn't a MLB caliber bat and honestly Grandal probably isn't going to be available for the start of the season, and he has some issues with balls in the dirt IMO. Deno and Smith are both journeymen role players. Quentin can only be counted on for 300 ab's and the bench is loaded with .230 hitters. There isn't enough offensive talent on this team to overcome the Dodgers or avoid the prolonged slumps which have plagued The Pads the past 5 seasons. In short, this team was built to win in 2013, but the talent hasn't developed quickly enough to make any noise vs. the NL West. Maybe .500 is possible.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 11:31:01 GMT -8
The Padres offense is pretty damned good. I don't think they should tinker with it too much.
2013 San Diego Padres team batting ranks (out of 15 NL Teams)
Runs: 12th Slugging: 13th OPS: 13th
Batting AVG: 12th Hits 11th
They were a respectable middle of the pack (8th) in homeruns.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 11:34:44 GMT -8
I didn't think you would name a position. Once you start looking position by position it is hard to pick one in which the Padres don't have an interesting option. It has been pitching and injuries that have limited our success. In case it wasn't clear, I hereby name every position except second base and catcher as being below satisfactory for a winning team. For next season I do think that Alonso will continue to develop. I am intrigued to see Everth's production this season. On one hand, he came up the ranks very young, and it's not surprising to see his production increase as he hits his physical prime. OTOH, how much of an influence were the 'roids? Nobody can really say. So we'll see. Of course, he COULD still be on the jucie and maybe just has a more discreet supplier of HGH, as John has alluded to.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 15:08:36 GMT -8
John,
The Padres were a mediocre offensive team last season, and with the current personnel they may not be much better in 2014. I will say they will need a lot to go right, including health and getting some career years from several players. Avoiding another PED suspension would be great also.
I do think the pitching staff has the potential to be very good.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 15:10:07 GMT -8
Once you start looking position by position it is hard to pick one in which the Padres don't have an interesting option. How do you define "interesting"? Circus freaks are "interesting." Derrel Thomas, Enzo Hernandez, and Tim Flannery were "interesting" players. So is Cameron Maybin. (I love the way he wears his hat! Plus he's always grinning! What infectious optimism!) LOL at that first sentence.
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Post by bringbackluginbill on Dec 27, 2013 15:52:22 GMT -8
The Padres offense is pretty damned good. I don't think they should tinker with it too much. 2013 San Diego Padres team batting ranks (out of 15 NL Teams) Runs: 12th Slugging: 13th OPS: 13th Batting AVG: 12th Hits 11th They were a respectable middle of the pack (8th) in homeruns. Not very good even considering they play in a pitchers park... runs is pretty disappointing tbh. I guess the stolen base is as meaningless as the experts say... This team will win or lose based on pitching and defense. That was the difference last year, the padres aren't going to blow anyone out so they need to preserve every run they can. Id say they really don't have a "interesting" outfielder on the entire roster. Headley and Alonzo are possibly the least interesting 3rd base and 1st base combo in the majors. Not to say they don't have strengths and they aren't both excellent fielders but I don't think we need to start looking for a location near centerfield to build another statue for either of these guys. I think that's the whole point of this thread here... Where is the Trout? Where is the Mccutcheon? or the Votto or the Cabrera or the Cano? Where is the STUD bat that is going to drag people out of the gas lamp bars and drive them into Petco?? Padres fans have been waiting a long long time to have that player in the lineup every night. You all know the type of player I am talking about when he comes into Petco on the other team and you are 5 beers deep but you wont get up to pee until this guy finishes his at-bat. That's what the padres need... Maybe it will be Gyorko but that jury is still out
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 27, 2013 17:43:13 GMT -8
The Padres offense is pretty damned good. I don't think they should tinker with it too much. 2013 San Diego Padres team batting ranks (out of 15 NL Teams) Runs: 12th Slugging: 13th OPS: 13th Batting AVG: 12th Hits 11th They were a respectable middle of the pack (8th) in homeruns. They were 4th in home runs on the road. They were 7th in runs scored on the road. That is top half of the NL. Look at pitching on the road where they don't have the benefit of petco park. That makes it clear pitching is (has been) the problem. I think they will do better than 7th in scoring this year on the road. Having Grandal and Cabrera a full year and having Alonzo healthy and hopefully getting more Quentin at bats and Headley being more productive will lead to more runs.
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 28, 2013 7:33:48 GMT -8
But so will our opponents. I only use road numbers because that is an apples to apples comparison.
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 28, 2013 16:33:56 GMT -8
But so will our opponents. I only use road numbers because that is an apples to apples comparison. Not quite. Opponents' road numbers are affected by their games at Petco. You're adding Petco to theirs and withholding it from the Padres'. It'll be very hard to convince me that this current roster hits well enough to win the division or even go .500. The point was in response to your statement that the Padres have to play at Petco. The Padres Petco scoring is higher as a ratio to road games than our opponents ratio Petco and not against the Padres. Last year was one of the few years that was true. It is due to keeping players that play well in Petco Park.
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 28, 2013 16:47:42 GMT -8
But so will our opponents. I only use road numbers because that is an apples to apples comparison. Not quite. Opponents' road numbers are affected by their games at Petco. You're adding Petco to theirs and withholding it from the Padres'. It'll be very hard to convince me that this current roster hits well enough to win the division or even go .500. I think we would agree on the offense if we both agreed on what each individual player would do. I tend to be optimistic. Cabrera plays the whole year and has a year similar to last year. Alonso has a healthy hand and improves over 2012 like you would expect from a 25 year old. Gyorko improves like you expect from a 23 year old. Grandal has a year between 2012 and 2013. Improving as you would expect from a 23 year old. Venable has similar year as 2013. Quentin gets 500 PA. Headly has a year closer to 2012. Denorfia and Smith platoon and have normal years, which is above average for each. None of the above would be a big surprise. Having each would be. Hopefully we can get 6 of the list. If we do we will have a really good offense.
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 29, 2013 18:12:03 GMT -8
RBI, Homeruns, and Batting average tells us little.
Get into the new century and talk OBP and SLG.
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Post by aztecmusician on Dec 29, 2013 19:47:22 GMT -8
RBI, Homeruns, and Batting average tells us little. Get into the new century and talk OBP and SLG. Question: Do any of the current Padres hitters rank in the top 10 in WAR? Top 25? Answer: Nope. Chris Denorfia ranked 39th with a WAR of 3.9
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 29, 2013 20:26:29 GMT -8
Padres have four batters in the top 90 WAR batters. Since there are 30 teams that is more than their fair share of three.
WAR is a nice attempt but defense is so hard to weight, I think it is not very accurate due to that.
Padres also have 6 players in top 150. That is one above average of 5 per team.
WAR is also volume dependant so a player like Cabrera gets short changed. Padres had a number of players who should get more time this year. Alonso also had a hand injury all year that reduced his power. He should hit more homeruns but mostly more doubles, since he is a line drive hitter.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 9:27:45 GMT -8
The Padres offense will likely be rather mediocre, unless a LOT goes in their favor. A nice start would be Headley rebounding, and Cabrera having a season that puts him in the top 5 statistically among NL shortstops in runs, steals, OBP, and OPS. There is no marquee bat in this lineup, so the pieces have to come together for this to work.
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