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Post by Section T(urn Up) on Dec 30, 2013 9:54:05 GMT -8
RBI, Homeruns, and Batting average tells us little. Get into the new century and talk OBP and SLG. I've been in the new century for at least five years now. I just reject the use of arcane stats that only serve to rationalize bad baseball. But okay...we'll talk about OBP and SLG. SLG first. Do you really mean to tell me that Will Freaking Venable is the 13th best slugger in the NL? That you'd rather have Venable than Jay Bruce or Pedro Alvarez? OBP matters only if you have people who can drive them in so there's no reason to go there...but just for you, I will. Chase Headley's OBP is better than Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Gonzalez, and Hunter Pence. Why haven't those guys' GM's come to Byrnes offering them for Headley? Look the bottom line is that we don't have many (if any) position players who would start on a championship team. I'm not even sure we have any starting pitchers who would, although I guess Cashner could eventually be one if his arm doesn't fall off before then. I don't really want to get into all of this, but in 2010 the Giants won with Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe in their everyday lineup. Yes, their pitching staff was insane, but baseball isn't the NBA. You don't need 3 super stars to win. Somewhere in this mess someone said that a team full of above average players won't win a championship, but that's not true. It definitely can. Whether it does or not comes down to a few playoff series where a lot of different things can happen. The Padres are in a tough spot where the top end projection of their players probably has them as a playoff team but a dark horse to win the WS. However, nobody is bad enough that they are an obvious weak link. Argue to the contrary if you must, but there just isn't an obvious weakness to plug (and more importantly, nobody out there that is an obvious solution). |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 10:53:32 GMT -8
I've been in the new century for at least five years now. I just reject the use of arcane stats that only serve to rationalize bad baseball. But okay...we'll talk about OBP and SLG. SLG first. Do you really mean to tell me that Will Freaking Venable is the 13th best slugger in the NL? That you'd rather have Venable than Jay Bruce or Pedro Alvarez? OBP matters only if you have people who can drive them in so there's no reason to go there...but just for you, I will. Chase Headley's OBP is better than Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Gonzalez, and Hunter Pence. Why haven't those guys' GM's come to Byrnes offering them for Headley? Look the bottom line is that we don't have many (if any) position players who would start on a championship team. I'm not even sure we have any starting pitchers who would, although I guess Cashner could eventually be one if his arm doesn't fall off before then. I don't really want to get into all of this, but in 2010 the Giants won with Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe in their everyday lineup. Yes, their pitching staff was insane, but baseball isn't the NBA. You don't need 3 super stars to win. Somewhere in this mess someone said that a team full of above average players won't win a championship, but that's not true. It definitely can. Whether it does or not comes down to a few playoff series where a lot of different things can happen. The Padres are in a tough spot where the top end projection of their players probably has them as a playoff team but a dark horse to win the WS. However, nobody is bad enough that they are an obvious weak link. Argue to the contrary if you must, but there just isn't an obvious weakness to plug (and more importantly, nobody out there that is an obvious solution). Good point on the Giants, and your post in general is accurate. Though to be fair, Juan Uribe had a fantastic season by his standards, I want to say he hit 25 or 30 homers that year and drove in a bunch of runs. Cody Ross was the 4th OF, if I recall correctly. And as you mentioned, they had a terrific staff and of course...Buster Posey. A terrific middle of the order bat who posted an OPS over .850 that season. They didn't have a killer regular season (91 or 92 wins I believe) but they got hot at the right time and the team came together perfectly. You don't need superstars to win, but you need good baseball players including some that are at the upper end of the spectrum at their respective position. Right now, we don't even have a Posey. And we haven't had one since Adrian. |
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 30, 2013 11:40:37 GMT -8
Headley had that type of year.
Padres were average last year with young players who should get better, with key players missing much of the year, and Headley regressing. They should be better this year. I measure their success via runs on the road versus the rest of the league. This past year they were 7th. I think they will be better this year. If things go more right than wrong, much better.
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 30, 2013 16:18:12 GMT -8
Miami and St Louis average to average.
"Everything" doesn't have to break. 5 of 8 positions breaking our way will do it.
I have a higher degree of hope about Grandal then you do. He was great at 23 and a couple of bad weeks at 24. He was very highly rated. At 25, it is not a pipe dream that he will be a top 5 catcher.
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Post by aardvark on Dec 30, 2013 23:45:35 GMT -8
Not quite. Opponents' road numbers are affected by their games at Petco. You're adding Petco to theirs and withholding it from the Padres'. It'll be very hard to convince me that this current roster hits well enough to win the division or even go .500. I think we would agree on the offense if we both agreed on what each individual player would do. I tend to be optimistic. Cabrera plays the whole year and has a year similar to last year. Alonso has a healthy hand and improves over 2012 like you would expect from a 25 year old. Gyorko improves like you expect from a 23 year old. Grandal has a year between 2012 and 2013. Improving as you would expect from a 23 year old. Venable has similar year as 2013. Quentin gets 500 PA. Headly has a year closer to 2012. Denorfia and Smith platoon and have normal years, which is above average for each. None of the above would be a big surprise. Having each would be. Hopefully we can get 6 of the list. If we do we will have a really good offense. Bill--one you won't get is Quentin and 500 PA. He couldn't get 500 PA's if he was playing a video game. |
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 31, 2013 0:38:35 GMT -8
I think we would agree on the offense if we both agreed on what each individual player would do. I tend to be optimistic. Cabrera plays the whole year and has a year similar to last year. Alonso has a healthy hand and improves over 2012 like you would expect from a 25 year old. Gyorko improves like you expect from a 23 year old. Grandal has a year between 2012 and 2013. Improving as you would expect from a 23 year old. Venable has similar year as 2013. Quentin gets 500 PA. Headly has a year closer to 2012. Denorfia and Smith platoon and have normal years, which is above average for each. None of the above would be a big surprise. Having each would be. Hopefully we can get 6 of the list. If we do we will have a really good offense. Bill--one you won't get is Quentin and 500 PA. He couldn't get 500 PA's if he was playing a video game. Quentin's main value is his offense against left handed pitchers. That is why I hope, and call for, Quentin resting once every two series when a right handed pitcher starts. Smith is a great candidate to give him that rest. Resting a player once a week on a particular day regardless of the opposing pitchers handedness is thoughtless. We can also rest him late in games where he isn't expected to have any important PA. That would also improve defense. Maybe limiting his playing time will help keep him active. |
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Post by aardvark on Jan 2, 2014 12:46:53 GMT -8
Bill--one you won't get is Quentin and 500 PA. He couldn't get 500 PA's if he was playing a video game. Quentin's main value is his offense against left handed pitchers. That is why I hope, and call for, Quentin resting once every two series when a right handed pitcher starts. Smith is a great candidate to give him that rest. Resting a player once a week on a particular day regardless of the opposing pitchers handedness is thoughtless. We can also rest him late in games where he isn't expected to have any important PA. That would also improve defense. Maybe limiting his playing time will help keep him active. I would settle for 120-125 games from him. He's only hit that level twice in his career. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 11:07:05 GMT -8
"The Rangers, Red Sox and Rockies are three of "at least a half-dozen teams" who have asked the Padres about Chris Denorfia. Colorado's interest has presumably dried up due to their acquisition of Drew Stubbs. San Diego GM Josh Byrnes isn't willing to discuss trading Denorfia as long as he feels the Padres can be contenders, and Byrnes thinks his club's offseason moves could put them in the playoff mix. The Rangers also showed interest in Denorfia last July before the trade deadline. www.mlbtraderumors.com |
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