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Post by FLAztec4Life on Sept 4, 2012 7:26:09 GMT -8
Are we really talking about a kicker?!?!? WOW........
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Post by Trujillos & Beer on Sept 4, 2012 7:36:15 GMT -8
Are we really talking about a kicker?!?!? WOW........ Were we really talking about kickers last year when they contributed to three Aztec losses? Yes, we were. ..Sent from my Samsung GS3.. |
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Post by FLAztec4Life on Sept 4, 2012 7:58:45 GMT -8
Maybe Katz should learn the Doug Flutie Drop Kick.
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cc
Bench Warmer
Posts: 81
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Post by cc on Sept 4, 2012 8:43:35 GMT -8
My concern is the way Rocky has thrown the kicker under the bus. A true freshman, geez. Having Canepa basically say the kid is a bust is so unfair. There is going to be a backlash I am afraid. That bother me. |
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Post by MontezumaPhil on Sept 4, 2012 10:22:37 GMT -8
Just what is the real scoop here? Is Canepa right that Long doesn't believe in his kickers (a quote from the coach in Canepa's column indicated as much), or has Rocky gone all computer-football on us and now thinks the two pointer is the smarter play?
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Post by bearfoot on Sept 4, 2012 10:51:06 GMT -8
Just what is the real scoop here? Is Canepa right that Long doesn't believe in his kickers (a quote from the coach in Canepa's column indicated as much), or has Rocky gone all computer-football on us and now thinks the two pointer is the smarter play? BINGO! Wondering: If Rocky knew his best (only) kicker was injured, did he choose to avoid putting him in a position to loose his nerve? If this is the case, then it might go along with coach keeping his players away from the press after the Michigan game. I know it isn't quite the same, but it still goes to not putting too much pressure on kids he believes can't take it. I think I remember Abel kicking better early in the season than after the Wyoming mess. |
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Sept 4, 2012 14:29:34 GMT -8
I think Canepa was Right on Time. Spot on. Balls on, even.
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 4, 2012 15:14:41 GMT -8
My concern is the way Rocky has thrown the kicker under the bus. A true freshman, geez. Having Canepa basically say the kid is a bust is so unfair. There is going to be a backlash I am afraid. Maybe Rocky knows the kicker needs a little kick in the butt. Do you now profess to know the personality of the kicker better than Rocky does? When a team is 2 TDs down and scores a TD the correct thing to do is go for 2 unless the percentage chance of making the 2 point conversion is less than 40%. That is simple math. If Rocky thought our chance was better than 40%, he should have gone for 2. Do some of you think you know better than Rocky about the chance of making the conversations? |
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 4, 2012 15:22:04 GMT -8
My concern is the way Rocky has thrown the kicker under the bus. A true freshman, geez. Having Canepa basically say the kid is a bust is so unfair. There is going to be a backlash I am afraid. Maybe Rocky knows the kicker needs a little kick in the butt. Do you now profess to know the personality of the kicker better than Rocky does? When a team is 2 TDs down and scores a TD the correct thing to do is go for 2 unless the percentage chance of making the 2 point conversion is less than 40%. That is simple math. If Rocky thought our chance was better than 40%, he should have gone for 2. Do some of you think you know better than Rocky about the chance of making the conversations? Here is a table of average expected points using the following plan. First TD go for 2. If it is good, go for 1 for the next TD. If it is not good, go for 2 again. This is the plan if you are 14 points behind. | 37% | 38% | 40% | 45% | 50% | <---Chance of making 2 point conversation | | 39.7% | 38.4% | 36.0% | 30.3% | 25.0% | <---Making ZERO Points | | 23.3% | 23.6% | 24.0% | 24.8% | 25.0% | <---Making TWO Points | | 37.0% | 38.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 50.0% | <---Making THREE Points |
As you can see 38% is the cross over. If you think you can make the conversion 38% of the time, it is a push. If you think you can make it more often, you should implement the plan. The key is the percentage you will score 3 points versus the percentage you will score 0 points. If you will score 3 points more often, it is a good bet. This assumes you have a 50/50 chance of winning in OT. If you think that chance is less than 50/50 you should adjust downward and take more chances with less chance of success. If you think you have a better chance than 50/50 in OT, take less chances. At a 50% conversion rate you will win twice as often as lose. So if you think you will win 2/3 of the time in OT, than that should be your crossover point. Note: The table above assumes 100% kick success. It is close enough that it wouldn't make a significant difference. |
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Post by myownwords on Sept 4, 2012 15:26:00 GMT -8
My concern is the way Rocky has thrown the kicker under the bus. A true freshman, geez. Having Canepa basically say the kid is a bust is so unfair. There is going to be a backlash I am afraid. Maybe Rocky knows the kicker needs a little kick in the butt. Do you now profess to know the personality of the kicker better than Rocky does? When a team is 2 TDs down and scores a TD the correct thing to do is go for 2 unless the percentage chance of making the 2 point conversion is less than 40%. That is simple math. If Rocky thought our chance was better than 40%, he should have gone for 2. Do some of you think you know better than Rocky about the chance of making the conversations? AztecBill, when is it EVER a good thing for a coach to "call out" a kid on a college team? To tell the world they suck. To, in essence, put the blame on the kicker(s), for the non-kick theory that Rocky was "forced" into. Though he didn't use the kid's name, the effect was the same. Pro coaches rarely put such pressure on grown professional men. Rocky was publicly more generous with Dillion Baxter's behavior. |
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 4, 2012 15:28:54 GMT -8
Maybe Rocky knows the kicker needs a little kick in the butt. Do you now profess to know the personality of the kicker better than Rocky does? When a team is 2 TDs down and scores a TD the correct thing to do is go for 2 unless the percentage chance of making the 2 point conversion is less than 40%. That is simple math. If Rocky thought our chance was better than 40%, he should have gone for 2. Do some of you think you know better than Rocky about the chance of making the conversations? AztecBill, when is it EVER a good thing for a coach to "call out" a kid on a college team? To tell the world they suck. To, in essence, put the blame on the kicker(s), for the non-kick theory that Rocky was "forced" into. Though he didn't use the kid's name, the effect was the same. Pro coaches rarely put such pressure on grown professional men. Rocky was publicly more generous with Dillion Baxter's behavior. When a coach recognizes a personality that will thrive in an "I'll show him" type of mind set. This is an advanced leadership move that shouldn't be tried at home. |
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Post by myownwords on Sept 4, 2012 15:30:34 GMT -8
AztecBill, when is it EVER a good thing for a coach to "call out" a kid on a college team? To tell the world they suck. To, in essence, put the blame on the kicker(s), for the non-kick theory that Rocky was "forced" into. Though he didn't use the kid's name, the effect was the same. Pro coaches rarely put such pressure on grown professional men. Rocky was publicly more generous with Dillion Baxter's behavior. When a coach recognizes a personality that will thrive in an "I'll show him" type of mind set. This is an advanced leadership move that shouldn't be tried at home. That's fine, we disagree. |
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 4, 2012 15:34:24 GMT -8
When a coach recognizes a personality that will thrive in an "I'll show him" type of mind set. This is an advanced leadership move that shouldn't be tried at home. That's fine, we disagree. Do you think there is no one out there that works better with an "I'll show him" mindset or do you think Rocky can't know that? |
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Post by myownwords on Sept 4, 2012 15:39:32 GMT -8
That's fine, we disagree. Do you think there is no one out there that works better with an "I'll show him" mindset or do you think Rocky can't know that? When you're talking about 17-year old kids, no, I think it's bad form and bad coaching. Do it within team structure, but not the public. Again, the pros rarely even do that. Does Rocky know more than they do? In addition, I have very little confidence in our HC, so I'm not the best person to whom you should ask your question. |
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Post by halfnip on Sept 4, 2012 15:43:52 GMT -8
Dammit, Bill...You and your friggin' statistics.. ;D
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 4, 2012 16:07:14 GMT -8
Do you think there is no one out there that works better with an "I'll show him" mindset or do you think Rocky can't know that? When you're talking about 17-year old kids, no, I think it's bad form and bad coaching. Do it within team structure, but not the public. Again, the pros rarely even do that. Does Rocky know more than they do? In addition, I have very little confidence in our HC, so I'm not the best person to whom you should ask your question. You asked me by name "when is it EVER". That gives me a lot of leeway in my answer  I tend to agree with you. |
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Post by myownwords on Sept 4, 2012 16:25:04 GMT -8
When you're talking about 17-year old kids, no, I think it's bad form and bad coaching. Do it within team structure, but not the public. Again, the pros rarely even do that. Does Rocky know more than they do? In addition, I have very little confidence in our HC, so I'm not the best person to whom you should ask your question. You asked me by name "when is it EVER". That gives me a lot of leeway in my answer I tend to agree with you. Yes I did give you alot of leeway with that. I just prefer that the "discipline", such as it is, stay's within the team's sphere. Sort of like family. I thought Rocky handled the Dillon situation with class. The kickers? Not so much. |
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 4, 2012 16:44:38 GMT -8
You asked me by name "when is it EVER". That gives me a lot of leeway in my answer I tend to agree with you. Yes I did give you alot of leeway with that. I just prefer that the "discipline", such as it is, stay's within the team's sphere. Sort of like family. I thought Rocky handled the Dillon situation with class. The kickers? Not so much. I just went to GoAztecs.com to find quotes to see what he said. All I could find is a vid where he said the kickers weren't making field goals at a sufficient rate in practice. Is that it or was there something more? |
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Post by sdsuaztecs on Sept 4, 2012 16:47:33 GMT -8
Let President Obama figure it out. He knows best.
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Post by Trujillos & Beer on Sept 4, 2012 17:06:10 GMT -8
Let President Obama figure it out. He knows best. After being owned over and over again you want to start talking politics? As if you haven't been owned enough. ..Sent from my Samsung GS3.. |
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