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Post by AztecBill on Jan 13, 2011 10:27:23 GMT -8
New Mexico
Record 12-4 = .7500
Opp Record: .5073
Yummy .6691 ((.7500 * 2/3) + (.5073 * 1/3))
SDSU
SOS .5534 #51 .5636 #40
New SOS .5601 #42 .5698 #34
RPI .6651 #4 .6727 #2
Win RPI .6700 #3 .6774 #2
Loss RPI .6610 #7 .6683 #5
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 13, 2011 10:29:05 GMT -8
Prior Opponents Upcoming Games | Team | Date | Opponent | Prediction | Result | | Gonzaga | 13-Jan | Pepperdine | W | WIN | | Wisc. Green Bay | 13-Jan | Loyola (IL) | L | WIN | | IUPUI | 13-Jan | North Dakota St | W | WIN | | Miami (OH) | 13-Jan | Buffalo | W | WIN | | St. Mary's | 13-Jan | San Francisco | W | WIN | | California | 13-Jan | Washington St. | W | WIN | | San Diego | 13-Jan | Santa Clara | L | LOSS | | Cal Poly | 13-Jan | CSU Fullerton | W | WIN | | UCSB | 13-Jan | UC Irvine | W | WIN | | San Francisco | 13-Jan | at St. Mary's | L | LOSS | | Long Beach | 15-Jan | Pacific | W | LOSS | | Gonzaga | 15-Jan | Loyola Marymnt | W | WIN | | Wisc. Green Bay | 15-Jan | Illinois | W | WIN | | IUPUI | 15-Jan | South Dakota St | L | WIN | | St. Mary's | 15-Jan | Santa Clara | W | WIN | | Wichita St. | 15-Jan | at Drake | W | WIN | | San Diego | 15-Jan | San Francisco | L | LOSS | | Cal Poly | 15-Jan | UC Irvine | W | LOSS | | UCSB | 15-Jan | UC Riverside | W | WIN | | San Francisco | 15-Jan | at San Diego | W | WIN |
They are predicted to go 15-5 from now through Saturday. If that happens our SOS will go well above the .5601 calculated above. So far they are a game ahead of the 15-5 prediction. Wisc. Green Bay was predicted to lose but won. All the others did as predicted.
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Post by monty on Jan 13, 2011 10:38:19 GMT -8
Would be a nice RPI win, would be another top 100 win, another road win, would only have 5 conf. road games left. This is a really big game for the overall picture.
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Post by haleiwaaztec on Jan 13, 2011 11:34:13 GMT -8
If we win at NM, our chances of winning the MWC Regular season just went up quite a bit. It would be equal to BYU winning at UNLV.
To me this game is 50/50 but it is the first game all year where I wouldn't be 'devestated' if they lost.
Look, we all know SDSU is going to lose a few games this year, it just can't be at home or to AF or Wyoming on the road (already beat TCU & Utah - yeah) or round 1 or 2 of the MWC or NCAA Tournament.
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 14, 2011 8:37:55 GMT -8
Updated
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Post by andyfromwashington on Jan 14, 2011 8:54:36 GMT -8
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 14, 2011 8:59:14 GMT -8
Yes. It is a fluke of scheduling that 9 of our 10 prior opponents played at home last night. Only San Francisco played on the road. But they played within a 15 minute (without traffic) drive. They played across the bay at another prior opponent, St Mary's. Saturday 8 of 10 prior opponents play at home with one playing another prior opponent. Only Wichita State plays on the road in a game we care about. They are predicted to go 8-2. |
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Post by longtimebooster on Jan 14, 2011 8:59:17 GMT -8
... but it is the first game all year where I wouldn't be 'devestated' if they lost. I'd be devastated. So would you. It would hurt much more than you'd think. Look, we all know SDSU is going to lose a few games this year ... Uh, no, we don't know that. Don't be quitting on the perfect record so easily. There's not a team left on our schedule that we can't beat. So don't be wandering around mumbling about how it's certain that we're going to lose a few games. It's not certain. Personally, I think we have a better-than-even chance of running the table. |
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Post by longtimebooster on Jan 14, 2011 9:04:02 GMT -8
Bill, since there's only one team in front of us, shouldn't we be considering KU, as well? What happens if KU loses to Nebraska at home or to Baylor on the road?
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 14, 2011 9:29:24 GMT -8
Bill, since there's only one team in front of us, shouldn't we be considering KU, as well? What happens if KU loses to Nebraska at home or to Baylor on the road? If they lose and we win, we pass them. If we both win, we will close the gap between us a little. Nebraska played the type of schedule that I wish some lesser MWC teams would. They were 11-0 at home OOC against very weak teams. That makes their record very yummy. Beating them will increase the Kansas SOS even though Nebraska is not as good as Long Beach State, who instead played a very tough schedule including road games. That is a very big flaw in RPI. Most of the Big 12 played weak teams at home during OOC play. Baylor played 10 home games against teams with an average RPI of 192. They played 4 game at neutral sites and only won one game - that was against USD. But they come into conference play 11-3 and the entire Big 12 benefits SOS-Wise from playing them. Baylor's RPI is 103 but their positive effect on others SOS in in the top 40. The Big 12 is full of teams like that. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 15, 2011 19:04:34 GMT -8
IUPUI (counts twice), Green Bay, UNLV, and Utah have all won so far. IUPUI was predicted to lose. UNLV and Utah don't mean squat to our RPI in the long run because we will play the teams they beat. But currently it adds a point or two.
Current RPI .6815 #2
We have opened up an .0084 point lead over #4 BYU. We are still .0124 behind #1 Kansas. Our lead over #3 Syracuse is still very small .0010. The rest of our prior opponents are expected to win tonight so our RPI will rise some more.
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Post by longtimebooster on Jan 15, 2011 19:06:49 GMT -8
Speaking of RPI, did anyone see the RPI listings of all the conferences. The Big East was No. 1, followed by the Big 10 and Big 12. The MGC was No. 4, ahead of the ACC and SEC. Amazing.
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 15, 2011 19:40:31 GMT -8
Speaking of RPI, did anyone see the RPI listings of all the conferences. The Big East was No. 1, followed by the Big 10 and Big 12. The MGC was No. 4, ahead of the ACC and SEC. Amazing. We are also ahead of the PAC-10 but that is not amazing. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 15, 2011 21:40:12 GMT -8
Today we went from .0134 behind Kansas to .0064 behind Kansas - picking up .0070 RPI points on them. We started the Day #3 and are now #2. We passed Syracuse again.
Starting today.
1. Kansas .6865 - .0000
2. Syracuse .6809 - .0056
3. San Diego St. .6731 - .0134
4. Brigham Young .6692 - .0173
Now.
Pos. Team .RPI .Diff .DeltaChange
1. Kansas .6878 - .0000 +.0000
2. San Diego State .6814 - .0064 +.0070
3. Syracuse .6798 - .0080 - .0048
4. BYU .6757 - .0121 +.0052
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