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Post by aztec70 on Dec 29, 2010 12:55:41 GMT -8
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Post by davdesid on Dec 30, 2010 14:28:10 GMT -8
>>>Obama holding his own.<<< Doin' fine. He's working real hard, and might even get his golf handicap down below the unemployment rate. tinyurl.com/23epjrl |
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Post by AztecWilliam on Dec 30, 2010 15:26:07 GMT -8
Huckabee is holding his own among the possible GOP aspirants. He's so good as a TV host that it would almost be a shame for him to run.
Actually, in this poll the rest have fallen but not too much. November, 2012 is still a long way off and a lot can happen. Obama, compared to his stratospheric support in 2008 has fallen quite a bit. He has managed to fritter away lots of his assets, largely by misreading the American public.
Nevertheless, it's hard to beat an incumbent. In addition to the many advantages an incumbent always has, Obama has almost 100% support from one key demographic group, African Americans. Short of photographic evidence that he secretly enjoys torturing dogs, that is not likely to change.
What the Republicans need is a candidate as appealing as Ronald Reagan. Yeah, I know, the odds of that are long indeed. So, what will happen in 2012? Here's my prediction:
I think that Obama will win, but by a narrower margin than last time. Congress is the interesting area. The Dems have 23 Senators up for reelection, the Rep. only 10. With an effective 53-47 lead, the Democrats will be in danger of losing the Senate.
If the Reps. hold all 10 of their seats, they would have to flip just 4 of the 23 Dems up for reelection. If the Reps. lose one of theirs they would have to flip 5 Dems. If they lose 2 of theirs they would have to flip 6, and so on. Since it's tough even in a good year for anyone to run the table, let's assume the Republicans win 8 of their 10 current seats. That would give them 45. What are the odds that they could then win 6 of the 23 Democratic seats? Pretty good, I would say, since that would be a winning rate of only 26%.
Bottom line is that the Republican Party seems to have a very realistic chance to win back the Senate in 2012. If they don't pull that off they should have a net pick up of at least a couple of seats which would make effective GOP control better than 50/50. (Reagan had effective control of the House with a portion of the Dems siding often with the Elephants.) Even if they were to end up with only 43 or 44 seats (which I see as much less than 50/50) they would be able to block Obama legislation.
How about the House? As of January, it will be 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats. With redistricting likely favoring the GOP (did you notice how many state legislatures they will control?) it's hard to imagine, now anyway, that the GOP will lose control. The Dems would have to have a net gain of 25 seats, which of course would not be an earth shattering accomplishment.
As I said, much can happen between now and Nov. 2012. Still, if I had to bet, I'd say the GOP retains the House and controls the Senate by a couple of seats. But I'm also suggesting that Obama wins reelection. That would make for a couple of very interesting years in D.C., don't you think?
AzWm
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Post by Bob Forsythe on Dec 31, 2010 15:34:14 GMT -8
>>>Obama holding his own.<<< Doin' fine. He's working real hard, and might even get his golf handicap down below the unemployment rate. tinyurl.com/23epjrlYeah, I guess cutting brush in West Texass and playing golf in Maine and hanging out at Camp David for a grant total of 1020 days is really productive: jonox.livejournal.com/25625.html=Bob |
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Post by Bob Forsythe on Dec 31, 2010 15:35:05 GMT -8
Oh please God, make it Palin.
=Bob
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Post by davdesid on Dec 31, 2010 15:58:08 GMT -8
>>>Obama holding his own.<<< Doin' fine. He's working real hard, and might even get his golf handicap down below the unemployment rate. tinyurl.com/23epjrlYeah, I guess cutting brush in West Texass and playing golf in Maine and hanging out at Camp David for a grant total of 1020 days is really productive: jonox.livejournal.com/25625.html=Bob Nice try, =Perfesser, but no cigar... tinyurl.com/269k6u6Aw hell, forget the cigars and go right to your favorite dish... SMOKED CROW  |
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Post by aztecwin on Jan 1, 2011 8:03:26 GMT -8
Someone will emerge to challenge. My guess is that we will have a good enough economy and Obama will go along with the Republicans on money issues to facilitate his getting reelected along with more Republicans in both the House and Senate.
I hope that I am right on all but Obama getting four more.
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Post by Montezuma on Jan 1, 2011 8:39:36 GMT -8
How can the economy recover if gas prices continue to rise? I think most Americans cap out on how much they are willing to pay to drive for thing other than work. The last time gas rose up to over $4 a gallon many people did not go out much and resturants and shopping malls suffered. I know I spend less money on fun when price of gas gets too high. Inflation is peaking its ugly head into the scene too. Obama is a disaster and we cannot afford another 4 years of this community organizer. I am so happy is willing to us millions of our tax dollars for his Spain and Hawaii vacations. Trips to Camp David and Crawford Texaz never costs us that much.
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Post by aztecwin on Jan 1, 2011 8:50:37 GMT -8
How can the economy recover if gas prices continue to rise? I think most Americans cap out on how much they are willing to pay to drive for thing other than work. The last time gas rose up to over $4 a gallon many people did not go out much and resturants and shopping malls suffered. I know I spend less money on fun when price of gas gets too high. Inflation is peaking its ugly head into the scene too. Obama is a disaster and we cannot afford another 4 years of this community organizer. I am so happy is willing to us millions of our tax dollars for his Spain and Hawaii vacations. Trips to Camp David and Crawford Texaz never costs us that much. Good point! This peak will pass as have the others. There is not a doubt that we think a little more about driving around when a tank of gas for my truck is over 80 bucks. I want to get rid of Obama more than most, but would be willing to put up with him if he would get out of the way and let Republicans get the economy going. That assumes of course that Republicans have got the message about spending and regulation. If not, we are in deep kim chi. |
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Post by davdesid on Jan 3, 2011 17:45:37 GMT -8
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Post by The Great Aztec Joe on Jan 3, 2011 18:22:00 GMT -8
Huckabee is holding his own among the possible GOP aspirants. He's so good as a TV host that it would almost be a shame for him to run. AzWm Oh my gosh, a choice between an incumbent Black from Chicago running against a country hillbilly by the name of Huckabee. Is the United States the laughing stock of the world? |
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Post by uwaztec on Jan 3, 2011 20:12:00 GMT -8
Huckabee is holding his own among the possible GOP aspirants. He's so good as a TV host that it would almost be a shame for him to run. AzWm Oh my gosh, a choice between an incumbent Black from Chicago running against a country hillbilly by the name of Huckabee. Is the United States the laughing stock of the world? Not really..would be if Palin was the GOP candidate though. |
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Post by aztecwin on Jan 3, 2011 22:25:46 GMT -8
Oh my gosh, a choice between an incumbent Black from Chicago running against a country hillbilly by the name of Huckabee. Is the United States the laughing stock of the world? Not really..would be if Palin was the GOP candidate though. Palin will never get the nomination. She is way to valuable as a fund raiser and as a lightening rod for liberals to hate. |
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