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Post by Boise Aztec on Aug 15, 2024 13:54:22 GMT -8
The new league will be a "professional" league in all senses...it won't necessarily be a feeder to the NFL...but rather a competing Saturday league. Instead of Jerry Jones / Spanos Family / the City of Green Bay et al. owning a Saturday league team...Notre Dame / OSU / 'Bama et al. will own the Saturday league teams The players will no longer be students with eligibility issues...there will be long-term contracts just like the NFL and the players filling the Saturday league will come from the remaining college programs with some of those players entering (transferring to) the NFL and some players entering (transferring to) the Saturday league. Eventually the Saturday league and the NFL will compete for the same talent...with high school players first going to a G5 (or G8 by then) school...in the same way that professional baseball players move up through the farm system. The media would absolutely love this system pitting the Saturday league against the NFL...especially once the talent evens out in a few years...it won't kill the golden goose but make it fatter... Maybe, but I'm not sure. College football will get much less profitable. The average NFL salary is 2.8M meaning teams are paying in the $150M range in player payroll. College sports are profitable because there is no payroll, which is going to change. But not only will they get squeezed on salary, the NFL teams get $400M in TV revenue more than double the player payroll. By contrast the Big 10 hands out $60M in revenue to each team from all sources. Fewer teams will increase TV revenue somewhat but nowhere near where it needs to be to compete with the NFL. If 60 teams went together and had a single negotiation for all NCAA football and basketball rights they would at least double what they make right now, maybe triple… the folks aren’t free… for every football player and to some extent basketball players… say 100 total scholarships for argument… there are 300 to 500 “student athletes” that don’t contribute to the income, but do create expenses… There is this “cry” saying that folks are getting rich off of the kids… it is only true for maybe 1%… a few coaches and almost all of them are head coaches and most of them are in football… the schools aren’t getting rich, the vast majority of coaches do ok, but they aren’t rich… maybe a few announcers could be considered rich… the networks aren’t rich, they are constantly trimming payroll… |
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Post by Boise Aztec on Aug 15, 2024 13:56:16 GMT -8
Of course Whittingham thinks the "super league" will be 40-60 teams. Because with this many teams, his team makes the cut. lol. Why would the top 22 teams split the pie 40 or 60 ways? I think it will be bigger in the 40 - 60 range. The long term ties and legal ties with schools in the B1G and SEC will make it hard to cut schools out, I think they come in as a whole. The Big12/ ACC schools may get pinched. A lot will determine on the TV provider and how much content they want to pay for and what windows they need. 40-60 teams is a lot to try and put on TV every week. Additionally, with the big $ TV contract do they need west coast schools or as with the NFL, with the EAST coast teams kick off at 9pm. I think I agree, so far most state governments have allowed this all to happen, but what we saw with Cal and UCLA is only a small shot across the bow… If Florida leave FSU behind for some super league… won’t happen… |
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Post by Den60 on Aug 15, 2024 18:34:49 GMT -8
I think it will be bigger in the 40 - 60 range. The long term ties and legal ties with schools in the B1G and SEC will make it hard to cut schools out, I think they come in as a whole. The Big12/ ACC schools may get pinched. A lot will determine on the TV provider and how much content they want to pay for and what windows they need. 40-60 teams is a lot to try and put on TV every week. Additionally, with the big $ TV contract do they need west coast schools or as with the NFL, with the EAST coast teams kick off at 9pm. I think I agree, so far most state governments have allowed this all to happen, but what we saw with Cal and UCLA is only a small shot across the bow… If Florida leave FSU behind for some super league… won’t happen… Cal and UCLA are linked via being part of the University of California system. The Calimony is being done inside that system. Cal and UCLA are basically part of the same university, just different campuses. Last I looked, Oregon left Ore. St. behind and so did Washington to Wazzu. The networks are driving the bus in CFB now. |
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Post by aardvark on Aug 15, 2024 18:58:58 GMT -8
My best uneducated guess is a football super league outside of NCAA happens in 4-6 years. They start smaller with 30-ish of the top branded teams and possibly add 5-10 schools over time if the money is right. All about providing quality games across multiple time zones during an entire Saturday. They have their own playoff/championship. Schools not invited stay in NCAA and find their way into conferences that are more regional to reduce travel costs. Smaller conferences/schools at that point may end up having to shut down football/athletics. No surprise, I think SDSU is on the outside looking in unless we somehow completely catch fire over next 3+ years. Even then it may be the same old LA schools not wanting SoCal competition. My biggest concern would be MW not getting a new media rights contract, or a really bad one. That's why I think it's important SDSU get into a higher tier conference now (Big 12, ACC, rebuilt PAC 12) so when chips start falling we're in a more stable situation with better quality conference members that can secure a media rights contract. There are really 22 "power/name" schools, but I think 32 will be the number they go with. 32 is the same as pro football. I think they will mimic what pro football does except with a few more playoff teams (say 16 playoff teams). Plenty of inventory for the networks. Plenty of money to go around and not too many mouths to feed. The leftover teams will then redraw the conferences to make them more regional. I think this may be better off for the G5 teams. I don't think it will be 32. Then again, I always thought it would 4, 16-team conferences. Now--I'm thinking 48, but I have no idea how they split them up. |
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Post by aardvark on Aug 15, 2024 19:02:28 GMT -8
The new league will be a "professional" league in all senses...it won't necessarily be a feeder to the NFL...but rather a competing Saturday league. Instead of Jerry Jones / Spanos Family / the City of Green Bay et al. owning a Saturday league team...Notre Dame / OSU / 'Bama et al. will own the Saturday league teams The players will no longer be students with eligibility issues...there will be long-term contracts just like the NFL and the players filling the Saturday league will come from the remaining college programs with some of those players entering (transferring to) the NFL and some players entering (transferring to) the Saturday league. Eventually the Saturday league and the NFL will compete for the same talent...with high school players first going to a G5 (or G8 by then) school...in the same way that professional baseball players move up through the farm system. The media would absolutely love this system pitting the Saturday league against the NFL...especially once the talent evens out in a few years...it won't kill the golden goose but make it fatter... Maybe, but I'm not sure. College football will get much less profitable. The average NFL salary is 2.8M meaning teams are paying in the $150M range in player payroll. College sports are profitable because there is no payroll, which is going to change. But not only will they get squeezed on salary, the NFL teams get $400M in TV revenue more than double the player payroll. By contrast the Big 10 hands out $60M in revenue to each team from all sources. Fewer teams will increase TV revenue somewhat but nowhere near where it needs to be to compete with the NFL. The NFL salary cap this season is $255.4 million. |
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Post by Boise Aztec on Aug 16, 2024 7:45:38 GMT -8
I think I agree, so far most state governments have allowed this all to happen, but what we saw with Cal and UCLA is only a small shot across the bow… If Florida leave FSU behind for some super league… won’t happen… Cal and UCLA are linked via being part of the University of California system. The Calimony is being done inside that system. Cal and UCLA are basically part of the same university, just different campuses. Last I looked, Oregon left Ore. St. behind and so did Washington to Wazzu. The networks are driving the bus in CFB now. Agree about Oregon and Washington… but some of the long time partners in the current SEC and B1G are a different story… but I could be wrong…. Will state allow Michigan to leave Michigan State Can Florida leave FSU for a super conference? |
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Post by Den60 on Aug 16, 2024 12:41:04 GMT -8
Cal and UCLA are linked via being part of the University of California system. The Calimony is being done inside that system. Cal and UCLA are basically part of the same university, just different campuses. Last I looked, Oregon left Ore. St. behind and so did Washington to Wazzu. The networks are driving the bus in CFB now. Agree about Oregon and Washington… but some of the long time partners in the current SEC and B1G are a different story… but I could be wrong…. Will state allow Michigan to leave Michigan State Can Florida leave FSU for a super conference? I see Michigan St getting in at 32 teams. Florida is in the SEC and Florida St is in the ACC so they are already in different value conferences. But, I think FSU does get in at 32 teams. One team that I think might surprise is UCLA. Just don't see the networks needing a second school in LA. Schools like Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue and Nebraska should be worried in the B1G For the SEC, say goodbye to Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Arkansas and Kentucky might have to prove themselves as well. Later on I will redo my list of 32 schools I think make the cut for the new professional college football league. |
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Post by aztecm on Aug 16, 2024 12:59:35 GMT -8
Agree about Oregon and Washington… but some of the long time partners in the current SEC and B1G are a different story… but I could be wrong…. Will state allow Michigan to leave Michigan State Can Florida leave FSU for a super conference? I see Michigan St getting in at 32 teams. Florida is in the SEC and Florida St is in the ACC so they are already in different value conferences. But, I think FSU does get in at 32 teams. One team that I think might surprise is UCLA. Just don't see the networks needing a second school in LA. Schools like Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue and Nebraska should be worried in the B1G For the SEC, say goodbye to Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Arkansas and Kentucky might have to prove themselves as well. Later on I will redo my list of 32 schools I think make the cut for the new professional college football league. If we're talking 30-40 schools breaking off and making their own league I think most of the major big time in-state schools are safe (UofM/MSU - Florida/FSU) as those rivalries actually continually draw eyeballs, not just from alumni. What I could see is a school like UNC for example getting some heat for leaving NC State/Duke. I also think you can point to the CALimony UCLA is paying and say as long as schools involved are compensated then it is what it is. |
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Post by Den60 on Aug 17, 2024 8:27:20 GMT -8
Here is what I come up with for teams potentially part of a P2 breakaway:
Definitely In (20 total):
Notre Dame
TOSU
Michigan
Michigan St.
Penn St.
Wisconsin
USC
Washington
Oregon
Bama
Georgia
LSU
Texas A&M
Florida
Tennessee
Texas
Oklahoma
Clemson
Florida St.
North Carolina
Consideration (19 total):
Minnesota
Illinois
Iowa
UCLA
Purdue or Indiana
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Missouri
ASU (Market)
Utah
Colorado (Market)
Nebraska
Auburn
Miami
North Carolina St.
Virgina or VA Tech
Pitt
Louisville
Either Cal or Stanford
Likely Out (8 total):
Northwestern
Rutgers
Maryland
Indiana or Purdue (Possibly Both)
Mississippi St.
Arkansas
Arizona
Cal or Stanford (Possibly Both)
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