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Post by docmm on Feb 7, 2023 7:38:47 GMT -8
February 7
ESPN has its' first "Bubble Watch" column of the season. It breaks down teams into 3 categories: 1) Locks 2) Should Be In 3) Work To Do
Aztecs are in the "Should Be In" group
Should be in
San Diego State Aztecs
In recent years when Bubble Watch has had occasion to track San Diego State, the story has tended to center on defense. No longer. In 2023, Brian Dutcher's men are getting the job done primarily on offense. Matt Bradley's season-long number for 3-point accuracy (33%) obscures the fact that his shooting has warmed up markedly since the calendar flipped to 2023. Additionally, the Aztecs are recording easily the highest shot volume of any team in Mountain West play, thanks in no small part to the offensive rebounding of Nathan Mensah, Keshad Johnson and Jaedon LeDee. Pencil in SDSU for a No. 7 seed.
In the "Work To Do" category are the rest of the MWC teams: Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah State
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Post by RiffelBooks on Feb 7, 2023 8:34:27 GMT -8
They clearly haven't seen Bradley play since the head-knocker with AG. Plus, the opportunity exists to grab a 5 seed, though that will require a lot of winning vs pretty good competition on the road.
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Post by docmm on Feb 7, 2023 11:18:06 GMT -8
They clearly haven't seen Bradley play since the head-knocker with AG. Plus, the opportunity exists to grab a 5 seed, though that will require a lot of winning vs pretty good competition on the road. Bradley and AG do seem to have responded differently to the head injury accident. Just because someone is not "officially" concussed, doesn't mean there can't be lingering issues with your brain and body. Matt has definitely been worse off but that may be because his shooting has more finesse to it. I'm hoping some time helps him get back to where he was. He's shooting only 33% overall FG% and 24% 3-pt% since he got stitches in his head. Before the injury, he was shooting 41% and 36%. I'm sure it's not all from that but it had to have had some impact. |
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Post by docmm on Feb 9, 2023 9:08:32 GMT -8
Feb 9 ESPN Update
Should be in
San Diego State Aztecs
"Projected No. 6 seed San Diego State secured a two-point win at Utah State the same way the Aztecs have succeeded all season long. Brian Dutcher's players crashed the offensive glass against the Aggies and pulled down 38% of their misses. Jaedon LeDee came off the bench and put up a 14-10 double-double with four offensive boards in just 21 minutes. Road games remain to be played at Fresno State, New Mexico and Boise State, but there's a fair probability the currently 19-5 SDSU could soon secure lock status here at the Watch." (updated Feb. 9)
After all the struggles against the top of the conference, I hope to God we put these next three away in a much easier fashion: UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State. PLEEEEZE! Getting to 22-5 would probably put us in the Top 14-18 in the AP and Coaches Polls and our NET would get into the Teens. That would pretty much assure us of at least a halfway decent seed and a lock for MM.
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Post by CbLsD on Feb 9, 2023 9:15:50 GMT -8
Not sure what time the NET rankings are updated but as of now it looks like we stayed in the same position (22) even though we had a quad one win last night.
That seems odd.
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Post by standiego on Feb 9, 2023 9:28:06 GMT -8
be careful you can get whip lash on every game results for SDSU - they still have a lot of important games to play
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Post by standiego on Feb 9, 2023 9:28:42 GMT -8
be careful you can get whip lash on every game results for SDSU - they still have a lot of important games to play
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Post by sdmotohead on Feb 9, 2023 9:46:41 GMT -8
Out of the top teams in the conference it appears Reno has the easiest schedule at the end. Only real tough game is @utard St.
Boosie St still has to play New Mexico, us, and @utard st.
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Post by mayham81 on Feb 9, 2023 9:50:02 GMT -8
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Post by docmm on Feb 9, 2023 11:04:48 GMT -8
Not sure what time the NET rankings are updated but as of now it looks like we stayed in the same position (22) even though we had a quad one win last night. That seems odd. You're correct, they're already updated. What I think happens is if the final outcome of the game is reasonably close to what the NET anticipates, you don't move up or down much. It's when you win or lose by a lot more than expected that you change positions significantly. For example, we were expected to lose by 3 points against Utah State, we won by 2, so that's not a big swing. However, had we kept up that 10-point cushion we had at the 5:00 mark, I think we would have moved up a couple slots. |
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Post by docmm on Feb 10, 2023 10:44:35 GMT -8
Nevada moved up to #30 in NET today, which makes us, for now anyway, have a 4-4 Q1 record. Our last three MWC games were all Q1 games, which is incredible for this conference this late in the season. By this time usually, most teams have lost too many games to MWC teams with NETs in the 150-300 range.
Our New Mexico loss went from a Q1 to a Q2 but the Boise and Utah State Ws more than made up for that. And we have 2 more Q1 games possibly, if Boise(#27) and New Mexico(#38) can stay in the TOP 75 NET, which shouldn't be difficult.
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Post by standiego on Feb 10, 2023 11:18:28 GMT -8
Aztecs still have some very difficult Road games that are very important to the Aztecs AT the Lobos and AT BSU - think they could even be back to back games not easy on the guys - as they seemed gassed at the end of the USU game
In addition Aztecs at times seem to play down to the opponents in Home games - hopefully no Banana Peel games
Nevada still has to play AT USU - what team do think Aztec fans should cheer for ?
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Post by CbLsD on Feb 10, 2023 11:54:15 GMT -8
The boys have put themselves in a really nice position. We play two more quad one games at Boise and at UNM. The MWT could provide two more quad one matchups. We’re 4-4 in quad one games as of today. If we can find a way to win three of the four we’d be 7-5 in quad one games and in the teens in the NET.No doubt this is a tall task but seems realistically doable.
Jerry palm just put us as the second ranked number 6 seed. I could see us being as high as a four seed and as low as a 10 depending on how things shake out.
Just keep winning boys!
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Post by docmm on Feb 10, 2023 16:12:35 GMT -8
The boys have put themselves in a really nice position. We play two more quad one games at Boise and at UNM. The MWT could provide two more quad one matchups. We’re 4-4 in quad one games as of today. If we can find a way to win three of the four we’d be 7-5 in quad one games and in the teens in the NET.No doubt this is a tall task but seems realistically doable. Jerry palm just put us as the second ranked number 6 seed. I could see us being as high as a four seed and as low as a 10 depending on how things shake out. Just keep winning boys! I agree with that hopeful rosy outlook. One would like to think that after the last three consecutive difficult games in a row, the next three games should be Ws. But with this team, you never know. The game at the Pit should be the hardest one left. And I'm not convinced that Boise's Shaver is going to be 100% by the time we play them. It sounds like Shaver and Naje Smith may sit out Saturday's game against that very depleted Wyoming squad. So a 5-1 record is certainly a possibility, bringing us to 24-6. We win the MWCT and we go to MM at 27-6 and no worse than a #4 seed and maybe even a #3. Right now in the Bracket Matrix, we're in all 99 brackets as the third team on the #6 seed line. After the next three Ws, I think we would go down to the #5 seed line. As a #4 seed, you might play teams like Akron, Utah Valley, Drake or Southern Miss. After Florida Gulf Coast, we know anyone can beat anyone buy it would be nice to open the Tournament with a #13 seed. As a #5 seed, you might play teams like VCU, Liberty, College of Charleston and Oral Roberts at the #12 seed line. This season there are a lot of storied programs that are typically high seeds but this year will more likely be around the #8-#11 seed lines: Kentucky, Memphis, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, USC, West Virginia, Arkansas, Michigan State etc They have lots of "talent" but either because of injuries or just not getting it together but are entirely capable of going on a tear. We shall see. |
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Post by namssa on Feb 16, 2023 8:07:41 GMT -8
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Post by azteccc on Feb 16, 2023 8:50:10 GMT -8
They put bubble watch behind the ESPN+ paywall?! Hahahah |
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Post by standiego on Feb 16, 2023 9:15:13 GMT -8
A lock is nice But as fans know getting a decent seed is quite important
In addition working on some definite weaknesses so the Aztecs can win some MM games
One and done in MM should not be considered a good successful year
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Post by docmm on Feb 16, 2023 10:42:56 GMT -8
It's nice to see that but unfortunately, the "lock" is not from the Selection Committee. There's a world where injuries or repeated bad games have the Aztecs end the season with a 1-3 record and lose the opening game in the MWC.
Granted, it's highly unlikely but not impossible. The Committee loves teams that are on a roll by Selection Sunday and conversely, aren't fans of teams that come limping to the finish line.
The Ohio State W won't mean much and we did lose to all the good OOC teams we played.: Arizona, Arkansas and St Mary's. I think we're in but you never know what those P5 people on the Committee will do to get in a 15-13 Michigan State or 16-14 West Virginia team in over us if they can justify it.
I'll feel a lot better if we win the MWCT and/or hear our name on SS.
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Post by vision on Feb 16, 2023 12:22:38 GMT -8
Better for the MWC if the Aztecs win out and win the MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT. That way perhaps we can get a couple other teams in the NCAA, and the Aztecs get a better seed. Will the MWconference get more money if the Aztecs advance with 3 wins in the field of 64. or if the MWC gets 3 teams in that all lose the first round?
I think you get $$ for each game you play for the next couple seasons. so if you advance to the sweet16 you would get 3X whatever the amount is....
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Post by CbLsD on Feb 16, 2023 12:33:57 GMT -8
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