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Post by AztecWilliam on Apr 29, 2010 9:38:05 GMT -8
So much of today's political talk is devoted to this one question: What will happen in the off-year elections to be held this November? Most people, at least outside the DNC, predict big Democratic losses in the House (we will ignore the Senate races in his discussion). Absolutely nobody is predicting Democratic House gains. Alright, fine; the Dems will lose House seats, and probably not just five or ten. Big losses are coming, but just how big? Jay Cost presents a really meaty treatment of this question with lots of historical data and comments that provide useful context. Worth taking a look. www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2010/04/predicting_the_2010_midterm_el_1.htmlAzWm |
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Post by aztecwin on May 1, 2010 20:08:45 GMT -8
It would be much clearer if it were closer and not November. Speaking of the Senate, a loss of more than three seats would really denut the Democrats.
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Post by AztecWilliam on May 1, 2010 22:21:20 GMT -8
It would be much clearer if it were closer and not November. Speaking of the Senate, a loss of more than three seats would really denut the Democrats. I am almost, repeat almost, ready to bet a few clams that the GOP will pick up at least 5 seats in the Senate. If things do not go south for the Republicans, a pickup of 6 or 7 is realistic. A pickup of 10, which they need to (barely) take control of the upper house is possible but a really long shot. A pickup of 30-35 seat in the House would be impressive, and possibly enough to derail most of Obama's most egregious proposals. But it would still leave the Dems in charge. On the other hand, a pickup of 40-45 would put the Republicans in charge but with such a tiny majority that they might find it difficult to do much, either. That would be no tragedy except for the fact that Obama would run against the "do-nothing" Republicans, which is what Truman did in '48 (even though the Republicans actually did get a lot done in their two years in the majority). In order to really make their mark, the GOP would have to come close to taking the Senate (with at least a dim hope that a couple of scared Democrats would side with them much of the time) and win the House with a pickup of 50-60 seats. That latter outcome is actually possible, depending on what happens in the next 6 months. And in politics, six months is half an eternity. AzWm |
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Post by waztec on May 2, 2010 7:27:02 GMT -8
As the economy goes, so goes the election.
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Post by aztecwin on May 2, 2010 14:34:28 GMT -8
As the economy goes, so goes the election. As we are able to grasp and remember the cause and effect of the drivers of the economy, so goes the election might be a little bit closer to it, but in general, you are right. |
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