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Post by soccer94 on Nov 12, 2019 12:05:51 GMT -8
Obviously it is really early with very little data, but Jeff Sagarin's College Basketball Ratings have us really high. Sagarin #6 sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htmOther ratings not quite so much. AP #40 BPI #57 Massey #60 Kenpom #81
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Post by standiego on Nov 12, 2019 12:24:40 GMT -8
way too early and not exactly played a high quality team - let's check back after the T in Las Vegas
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Post by azteccc on Nov 12, 2019 12:26:04 GMT -8
Obviously it is really early with very little data, but Jeff Sagarin's College Basketball Ratings have us really high. Sagarin #6 sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htmOther ratings not quite so much. AP #40 BPI #57 Massey #60 Kenpom #81 KenPom is weighted using last year until mid-January. Massey uses last year until end of season. BPI model never fully removes last season but lowers the weight as season progresses. AP is voter based and not reliant on last year at all. Can’t find Sagarin preseason modeling, but I’d take an educated guess and say it weighs last year significantly lower, early. Moral of the Story - Computer models, both predictive and backward-looking, are utterly useless this early. Between the noise and reliance on last year’s results, they tell almost nothing of note.
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Post by DeeMoney on Nov 12, 2019 12:31:33 GMT -8
Aztecc summed it up perfectly above. Although I will add, that this spot is basically representative of how good the BYU win was. Hopefully it carries some weight in March
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Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 12, 2019 12:34:44 GMT -8
Sure it is early, but if you look at his Top 50 there are only three real outliers...
#35 La Tech #43 UNC Greensboro #49 Oakland (Michigan)
Everyone else looks like they belong in a typical Top 50...
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Post by sdmotohead on Nov 13, 2019 17:41:25 GMT -8
Well that didn't take long. We dropped to #32 on Sagarin's today.
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Post by Pasadenaztec on Nov 13, 2019 17:50:04 GMT -8
Well that didn't take long. We dropped to #32 on Sagarin's today. Probably has something to do with global warming.
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Post by soccer94 on Nov 14, 2019 8:36:42 GMT -8
Two days and one win later.
Sagarin #6 - Now #27
AP #40 - No Change until Monday. Our only two votes came from Jeff Call from the Desert News in Salt Lake City who was apparently impressed by the BYU game and had us at #24. I suspect we will have a few more votes this coming week. There is a bit of copycatting in the polls as many of the writers are lazy, so once one writer puts you in, others will follow.
BPI #57 - Now #51
Massey #60 - Now #51
Kenpom #81 - Now #73
While none of this really matter now and there is very little data, it is always better to be a little higher to begin with than to have to fight your way up later similar to the CFP. Nice to see we are moving up in everything but Sagarin, and it is fair to say we were probably a little too high at 6.
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Post by longtimebooster on Nov 14, 2019 8:42:44 GMT -8
Well that didn't take long. We dropped to #32 on Sagarin's today. Probably has something to do with global warming. Yes, and the flooding in Venice.
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Post by docmm on Nov 14, 2019 13:23:13 GMT -8
Two days and one win later. Sagarin #6 - Now #27 AP #40 - No Change until Monday. Our only two votes came from Jeff Call from the Desert News in Salt Lake City who was apparently impressed by the BYU game and had us at #24. I suspect we will have a few more votes this coming week. There is a bit of copycatting in the polls as many of the writers are lazy, so once one writer puts you in, others will follow. BPI #57 - Now #51 Massey #60 - Now #51 Kenpom #81 - Now #73 While none of this really matter now and there is very little data, it is always better to be a little higher to begin with than to have to fight your way up later similar to the CFP. Nice to see we are moving up in everything but Sagarin, and it is fair to say we were probably a little too high at 6. I feel like the Kenpom is the most legit and accepted by those supposedly in the know. If we continue to win and win by a nice margin, we should continue to be ranked higher an higher in Kenpom. Would love to be at least at about #40-50 by the Thanksgiving Tournament. I love that Dutch let his guys press and score in the last 4 minutes of the game. So many times in the past, Fish would take out his starters with a 20-25 point lead and by the end of the game, the margin would be down to 9-11 points. Regardless of what people say that means or doesn't mean to pollsters, a bigger margin of victory can never hurt you in the eyes of those who rank you.
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Post by aztecking on Nov 14, 2019 13:52:19 GMT -8
Two days and one win later. Sagarin #6 - Now #27 AP #40 - No Change until Monday. Our only two votes came from Jeff Call from the Desert News in Salt Lake City who was apparently impressed by the BYU game and had us at #24. I suspect we will have a few more votes this coming week. There is a bit of copycatting in the polls as many of the writers are lazy, so once one writer puts you in, others will follow. BPI #57 - Now #51 Massey #60 - Now #51 Kenpom #81 - Now #73 While none of this really matter now and there is very little data, it is always better to be a little higher to begin with than to have to fight your way up later similar to the CFP. Nice to see we are moving up in everything but Sagarin, and it is fair to say we were probably a little too high at 6. I feel like the Kenpom is the most legit and accepted by those supposedly in the know. If we continue to win and win by a nice margin, we should continue to be ranked higher an higher in Kenpom. Would love to be at least at about #40-50 by the Thanksgiving Tournament. I love that Dutch let his guys press and score in the last 4 minutes of the game. So many times in the past, Fish would take out his starters with a 20-25 point lead and by the end of the game, the margin would be down to 9-11 points. Regardless of what people say that means or doesn't mean to pollsters, a bigger margin of victory can never hurt you in the eyes of those who rank you. Margin of victory is a component of Kenpom and Kenpom is now one the metrics used by the tournament committee to rank and seed teams. It makes sense to try and maximize that margin, it will only help.
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Post by DeeMoney on Nov 14, 2019 17:15:42 GMT -8
Two days and one win later. Sagarin #6 - Now #27 AP #40 - No Change until Monday. Our only two votes came from Jeff Call from the Desert News in Salt Lake City who was apparently impressed by the BYU game and had us at #24. I suspect we will have a few more votes this coming week. There is a bit of copycatting in the polls as many of the writers are lazy, so once one writer puts you in, others will follow. BPI #57 - Now #51 Massey #60 - Now #51 Kenpom #81 - Now #73 While none of this really matter now and there is very little data, it is always better to be a little higher to begin with than to have to fight your way up later similar to the CFP. Nice to see we are moving up in everything but Sagarin, and it is fair to say we were probably a little too high at 6. I feel like the Kenpom is the most legit and accepted by those supposedly in the know. If we continue to win and win by a nice margin, we should continue to be ranked higher an higher in Kenpom. Would love to be at least at about #40-50 by the Thanksgiving Tournament. I love that Dutch let his guys press and score in the last 4 minutes of the game. So many times in the past, Fish would take out his starters with a 20-25 point lead and by the end of the game, the margin would be down to 9-11 points. Regardless of what people say that means or doesn't mean to pollsters, a bigger margin of victory can never hurt you in the eyes of those who rank you. In fact there was a Kenpom article years back that Fisher's teams usually won more than their metric predicted- this lends itself to supporting the case of Fisher letting scores of blowouts grow close.
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Post by oldie on Nov 15, 2019 13:16:32 GMT -8
Probably has something to do with global warming. Yes, and the flooding in Venice. definitely, presedent T had something to do with it
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Post by namssa on Nov 15, 2019 20:28:02 GMT -8
BYU with a nice win at Houston tonight. That should help.
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Post by docmm on Nov 17, 2019 6:31:00 GMT -8
Kenpom was #81 then #73 now #71 Slowly but surely
Creighton @ #38 Utah State @ #56 New Mexico @ #91 Utah @ #100 USD @ #159
(although BYU is stupidly at #68)
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Post by tonatiuh on Nov 19, 2019 15:19:09 GMT -8
Aztecc summed it up perfectly above. Although I will add, that this spot is basically representative of how good the BYU win was. Hopefully it carries some weight in March Anytime you beat BYU in Provo you have done something well. We have had a history of defeats in Provo in both basketball and football. This last one was only our 3rd victory over the Cougs in Provo. And, they do have an excellent winning record at home. So, it does carry a little weight.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Nov 19, 2019 16:22:37 GMT -8
Good 'ol imperfect RPI has us at #20 right now.
We already have one Q1 win on the books with our W at Provo. A 4-0 road/neutral court record between now and the start of conference play should give us another 1-2 Q1 wins and set us up with a good tournament resume if we can take care of business in Jan and Feb.
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Post by tonatiuh on Nov 19, 2019 16:39:07 GMT -8
If, we play well and possibly win the Las Vegas Invitational that should help us quite a bit since there are no cupcakes in that tournament, and
it could be very tough.
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Post by azteccc on Nov 19, 2019 22:17:00 GMT -8
Good 'ol imperfect RPI has us at #20 right now. We already have one Q1 win on the books with our W at Provo. A 4-0 road/neutral court record between now and the start of conference play should give us another 1-2 Q1 wins and set us up with a good tournament resume if we can take care of business in Jan and Feb. We need all the help we can get and to avoid the usual-as-of-late annual toe stubbing. The Mountain West sans us and Utah St. is getting a train ran through it like we offended Alonzo Harris
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Post by moctezumaii on Nov 20, 2019 6:04:45 GMT -8
Good 'ol imperfect RPI has us at #20 right now. We already have one Q1 win on the books with our W at Provo. A 4-0 road/neutral court record between now and the start of conference play should give us another 1-2 Q1 wins and set us up with a good tournament resume if we can take care of business in Jan and Feb. We can take care of business. This team seems to have a different feel than recent teams. Reminiscent of the 2012 squad which, while not overly impressive on paper, was full of real scrappers. Maybe there IS something to the notion we do better with the less heralded recruits, the chippies looking to prove everybody wrong. A junkyard dog has no pedigree, but woe to those who trespass.
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