I'd move it up to slim from none. The only way a non P5 gets in is to win their conference and lose in their tournament. This is especially so now that the new metric they primarily follow is NET. We are sitting
at around 130 with little chance to move above the top at large bid to the NIT last year that was 69. Therefore, we have a slim chance to win out, but if we did and Nevada lost one other game we would have the tie
breaker over Nevada by virtue of 2 head to head meetings and win the conference. Utah St. could win out and in this case all they could do is tie us and we'd have the 2 head to head wins against them also. So very
slim, like a Dumb and Dumber chance, but who thought we'd win 9 in a row last year.
It isn’t mathematically impossible. It is very much improbable.
Zeigler addressed this in a recent article, which echoes a comment that I made in a different thread.
Zeigler: 3. Dreaming of dancing
Let’s dispel some other misguided speculation, that the Aztecs somehow have played their way onto the NCAA or NIT bubble.
They have won five straight and eight of nine that include victories against No. 6 Nevada and 22-6 Utah State, making them the hottest team in the Mountain West and maybe the entire West. But selection committees more and more rely on computer metrics and entire bodies of work, not what you have done for me lately, and SDSU’s sins from December and early January might be too much to overcome.
Remember, this is a team that got beat by 5-22 Cal.
The Aztecs are still just 130 in the NCAA’s new NET metric, moving up from 157 following their last loss, Feb. 5 loss at New Mexico. Even with a better record (18-9 vs. 17-12), SDSU is still 13 spots below a struggling USD team that has lost four of its last five. The reason: The Toreros beat the Aztecs at Viejas Arena on Dec. 5.
Another respected metric, Kenpom.com, has SDSU at 132 — about 80 spots from the NCAA bubble and 40 from realistic NIT consideration.“
Me from a different thread:
The mid major at large bid RPI’s last year were 40, 41, 49, 52, and 67. It will be interesting to see what NET ratings, good/bad losses, and records teams will need to qualify.
Last year’s NIT featured 12 teams that were automatic qualifiers. Meaning they won the regular season title but failed to win the conference tournament.
A thirteenth team, Grambling, also won their regular season conference title but was banned from the conference tournament amd NCAAs for low graduation rates.
Most of the at-large bids went to memebers of the power conferences: PAC 12, SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and the Big East.
The at-large teams from the lesser conferences were:
Western Kentucky 27–11 (14–4 C-USA) 3rd place RPI 41
Saint Mary’s 30–6 (16–2 WCC) 2nd place RPI 40
BYU 24–11 (11–7 WCC) 3rd place lost in tournament championship game. RPI 67
Boise State (23–9, 13–5 MWC) 2nd place RPI 52
Temple 17–16 (8–10 AAC) 7th place RPI 49 and SOS: 13
It will be very difficult for the Aztecs to earn an NIT bid. They would likely need to finish #2 (maybe #3) in the conference, lose in the MW championship game, and secure enough wins against the right teams to raise their NET rating (replaced RPI) significantly.
BYU finished last year at 24-11 came in third place and lost in the WCC title game, which was good enough for a 67 RPI. The second place team in that conference had a 40 RPI and also made the NIT.
