2010's House races seen in historical perspective.

[AztecWilliam]

What will be the outcome of November's voting for members of the House of Representatives? It's a hot topic, one that is surveyed in detail in this piece. Based on what has happened in past years, there seems to be no way that the GOP won't pick up at least 30 seats. However, unless the GOP takes control of the House, I think the Democrats will not get the full message.

Sure, if the Dems have only a slim margin in the House, let's 225-210, it will be much more difficult to get controversial bills passed. But even a two or three vote plurality means that Pelosi will continue to control things.

If I had to bet now, I would bet on a gain of at least 35 in the House, and perhaps as many as 40-50. As you will see in this article, a gain of 60, 70, or even 80 is not out of the question, though too many things can happen before November to confidently predict that.

(I continue to believe that the Republicans will end up with about 45-47 seats in the Senate; not enough to take control, but enough to make life difficult for any radical agenda the Dems may still seek to push. An outright Republican takeover of the Senate is a very long shot, but the odds of that are not absolute zero.)

www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/04/14/how_bad_could_2010_really_get_for_democrats_105152.html

AzWm

[AlwaysAnAztec]

As I said in another similar thread. The Republicans will not make a substantial gain in either the house or senate until control of the party is wrested from the far right fringe. These are NOT the Tea Party conservatives but the left over GWB social conservatives. If the candidate doesn't pass their litmus tests then they won't be supported by the party. And the party controls the $$$$.

[aztecwin]

Apr 14, 2010 13:16:51 GMT -8 AlwaysAnAztec said:

As I said in another similar thread. The Republicans will not make a substantial gain in either the house or senate until control of the party is wrested from the far right fringe. These are NOT the Tea Party conservatives but the left over GWB social conservatives. If the candidate doesn't pass their litmus tests then they won't be supported by the party. And the party controls the $$$$.

The liberals should hope that is the case, but it is very doubtful. Did you notice that the Tea Party folks were able to raise enough money in just a few days to force Stupak to proclaim that he was not running? Just how many more people like that has Obama put in the position of having to defend their votes against the will of their constituents? The repubs might not regain control of either body but they will make enough inroads to cause gridlock and create enough discontent to cause Obama to be thrown out on his ear in 2012.

[AztecWilliam]

There is no way that the Dems will not suffer significant losses in both houses of Congress. A takeover of the House by the GOP is probably at least a 50/50 proposition. Six months is just not enough time to defuse the toxic feelings against Obama and his ilk.

You know, it did not have to be this way. Obama could have steered a center left course and wooed a few Republicans to support, for example, a more moderate, incremental health insurance bill. The Dems would still be in line to lose seats, but possibly as few as 15-20 in the House and maybe only 2-4 in the Senate. (I can remember an article by somebody or other that appeared last year. It made a strong case that the Dems would actually INCREASE their numbers in the Senate!)

Obama and his ardent followers badly, badly, misinterpreted the results of 2006. They clearly did not understand how fortunate they benefited from all sorts of Republican misfortune. They were intoxicated by their desire to turn the USA into a semi-collectivist welfare state a la Sweden or Denmark. This kind of overreach has happened many times in the past.

The only thing that is protecting the Dems right now from an absolute massacre in November (by which I mean a net loss of 80 in the House and ten or more in the Senate) is that the Republicans are still not terribly popular as a group. However, if things go badly for the country in the coming months the GOP may indeed mop up the floor with their opponents. One wonders what the very rigid, doctrinaire Obama might do if that scenario comes to pass.

AzWm