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Post by AztecWilliam on Feb 15, 2010 16:23:07 GMT -8
Indiana Senator Evan Bayh has just announced that he will not run for reelection this Fall. This is a huge bombshell, partly because the Dems only have, as I understand it, until tomorrow to find another candidate.
Two questions: 1) What does this mean for the next Congress, and 2) will Bayh run for President in 2016 (or even 2012)?
1) It should make it easier for the GOP to retake the Senate, though that is still a long shot. In any event, the Republicans appear ready to make a net gain of at least 4 or 5 seats, and perhaps as many as 6 or 7. (They would need 10 to regain control of the Senate, or perhaps only 9 provided that Joe Lieberman can be persuaded to caucus with the GOP.)
2.) Quite possibly. Personally, I think I would be fairly comfortable with Bayh in the Oval Office. However, if he runs in 2016, his chances of winning would be on the downside of 50% since by then the country should be good and tired of statist Democratic government.
AzWm
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Post by aztecwin on Feb 16, 2010 12:58:31 GMT -8
If Bayh were to mount a campaign against Obama in 2012 it would really cause mass confusion or worse within the Demo Party. I really doubt that it would happen but you never really know since he is so disgusted with what Washington has become.
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Post by AztecWilliam on Feb 16, 2010 22:49:44 GMT -8
If Bayh were to mount a campaign against Obama in 2012 it would really cause mass confusion or worse within the Demo Party. I really doubt that it would happen but you never really know since he is so disgusted with what Washington has become. It sure would be interesting. But I doubt that Bayh has the intestinal fire for such an undertaking. He seems rather laid back to me. Also, he has seen what the Lefties have done (rhetorically, of course) to Joe Lieberman. It is not impossible that Obama will look like damaged goods by 2012. If a potential GOP candidate with real charisma and solid credentials takes off by about late 2011 I think it not impossible that a serious rival to Obama might give it a go. It's happened before (e.g.; Gene McCarthy). NB: It's also possible that the economy will strengthen just enough to allow His Oneness to squeak through to a second term. Such a scenario also assumes that the GOP candidate is underwhelming. One really has to have an overwhelming candidate to upset a sitting president, even a weakened one. AzWm |
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Post by AlwaysAnAztec on Feb 17, 2010 10:35:16 GMT -8
The problem you 'righties' have is that unless your candidate toes the far right wing-nut line they stand no chance of being supported by the current Republican party leadership. That means that whoever is nominated will be so far on the edge that any moderate or even right-of-center Republican will not support them.
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Post by ptsdthor on Feb 17, 2010 16:21:17 GMT -8
The problem you 'righties' have is that unless your candidate toes the far right wing-nut line they stand no chance of being supported by the current Republican party leadership. That means that whoever is nominated will be so far on the edge that any moderate or even right-of-center Republican will not support them. Depending on how things turn out for the economy in the next two years, an Economic Conservative could win in a landslide regardless of their social or national security policies. All elections are unique and are dependent on the dynamics of the day. Obama never portrayed himself as a moderate on the war in Iraq and won and McCain cooperated with the Democrats all the time (read that - a moderate) and got his head beat in. The moral of the story being - never take the advice from your opponents on how best to beat them. |
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Post by aztecwin on Feb 17, 2010 16:58:16 GMT -8
The problem you 'righties' have is that unless your candidate toes the far right wing-nut line they stand no chance of being supported by the current Republican party leadership. That means that whoever is nominated will be so far on the edge that any moderate or even right-of-center Republican will not support them. I think that it has been shown that a real Conservative can win really big. Remember Reagan? Right now even a generic Republican beats Obama. A big win in this off year election by Republicans will further lesson the chance that Obama can get anything meaningful passed with out bi-partisan participation. That might help Obama since we seem to have short memories about this Health Care and Cap and Tax tries that have been made along with similar things in the past. Spending will be the biggest issue. Wait and see I guess. |
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