Events in Iran and how the U.S. is reacting.

[AztecWilliam]

You can be proactive or reactive. True in sports and true in international relations. Case in point: Iran & the U.S.A., Feb. 2010.

blog.american.com/?p=10432

AzWm

[aztecwin]

Neither Obama nor anyone in his administration have the vision, intellect, or guts to make a move that makes sense. It would not have to be a military strike if done soon. We are frozen at the wheel. It will be Israel that makes the first move and it will be soon.

[AztecWilliam]

One does not have to be a rabid anti-Democrat or right-wing nut case to be concerned over the Obama administration's handling of the key foreign policy issues that currently confront us. It seems to me that the old leftist (as in center left; the far left basically sees U.S. policy as the source of much of today's international problems) mindset is at work here.

That mindset is by no means unpatriotic or treasonous. On the other hand, not being unpatriotic or treasonous is not the same as being wise, sane, or prudent. The mildly leftist mindset to which I refer may be defined as a feeling that there surely must be some civilized, intellectually-based way of dealing with our adversaries instead on confronting them. In other words, if we only talk openly and sincerely enough we and they can reach a reasonable accommodation. Sorry, that bird won't fly.

There are some threats to our national security or, perhaps (worst case, to be sure) our national survival, that simply must be defeated with force. Force can take many forms. An all-out invasion, a la Iraq 2003, is one form. An embargo or blockade of a nation's ports is another. My disagreement with the Left, in this case represented by Obama's administration, is that said administration is loathe to use force under almost any circumstances. It's not that Obama would never use force against Iran. No, that's not the problem.

The problem is that by dithering (there's that word again), we may have waited so long to take decisive action re Iran that the situation there may explode, yielding far worse side effects than if we had taken less drastic action earlier. An example of the kind of action that we could take would be an embargo of shipments of refined petroleum products to Iran. Although the Iranians have huge reserves of oil, they have few if any refineries and must rely principally on foreign exports of gasoline.

Would a blockade of Iranian ports cause troubles? You bet it would! On the other hand, what might happen if we do nothing and Iran continues to develop both nuclear weapons and the capability of delivering those weapons? The Mullahs might or might not decide to use those weapons overtly, but it is certain that the mere possession of nukes would throw the whole region into turmoil.

And here's the worst case scenario if Iran is close to having nuclear weapons. Do you think that Israel is going to sit by and do nothing? And what if Israel decides that only tactical nukes will destroy or badly cripple the Iranian nuclear program? It does not take much imagination to decide that the word catastrophe would be the correct adjective to use in such an event.

Some have suggested that Obama long ago gave up on stopping the Iranians from getting nukes and that deterrence would be appropriate and sufficient to take care of a nuclear Iran. Unfortunately, the Israeli government is very likely to take a different view.

The Left in this country and others have criticized such figures as George W. Bush as being eager to use military force to deal with international problems. Rash use of force can indeed be a huge mistake. On the other hand, hand wringing and taking no action until the pot boils over can also be a huge mistake.

Has Obama committed himself so thoroughly to the Left's reluctance to use force that the U.S. essentially allows events to be decided by others to the detriment of all? I hope not but fear that such an outcome is more than possible.

AzWm

[aztecwin]

You have essentially laid out the case for why Israel will make the first move and that we must just hope that there is not big miscalculation by one of the parties or even the US that throws the entire region, if not the world, into a Nuke war.

Obama's "dithering" is a huge gamble!

[AztecWilliam]

I would say that it is a foolish gamble, but if I did I would again be accused of bashing President Obama.

AzWm