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Post by AztecBill on Jul 7, 2014 16:26:30 GMT -8
I have meant to look into this for a while. I suspected that using the average rainfall would place most years below the average rainfall.
I looked up rainfall in San Diego by year. Found numbers for the last 50 years:
Average 10.18 inches.
Median 9.24
Years below average rainfall - 29
Years above average rainfall - 21
We should really be using median rainfall - not average.
The rainfall outliers are more extreme above the average causing the average to be above the median. I think median is more meaningful when looking to see if a year is unusal and to report above or below seasonal rainfall levels.
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Post by Aztec89 on Jul 11, 2014 5:22:06 GMT -8
Nice.
Look for an El Nino this coming year. Maybe 14+ inches as far south as San Diego County Coast.
The reservoirs will fill, from Folsom, to Cachuma, to Lake Meade in Nevada. And the "Scientists" will sip a Latte and say: "Well, that was an aberration".
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Post by Fishn'Aztec on Jul 11, 2014 16:27:35 GMT -8
Filling Lakes Powell, Mead, Mojave and Havasu would be impressive. Here's to the El Nino!
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 11, 2014 22:59:50 GMT -8
We are in the negative phase of the PDO which produces more la ninas than el ninos. That is why it has been a while since our last one. There is a good chance of one this summer. Higher temps and more rain.
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Post by uwphoto on Jul 12, 2014 16:36:15 GMT -8
We are in the negative phase of the PDO which produces more la ninas than el ninos. That is why it has been a while since our last one. There is a good chance of one this summer. Higher temps and more rain. Haha.. "good chance of one happening this summer" its already here and acknowledged by the scientific community. I was in 73 degree water at the nine-mile bank yesterday. My friend had a hammerhead shark in 60 feet of water 30 miles south of the border and the Dana Point whale watch had one this week. Other exotics showing up. Better get up to speed Bill.  |
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 13, 2014 0:11:26 GMT -8
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Post by La Mesa Aztec on Jul 13, 2014 17:08:28 GMT -8
I have meant to look into this for a while. I suspected that using the average rainfall would place most years below the average rainfall. I looked up rainfall in San Diego by year. Found numbers for the last 50 years: Average 10.18 inches. Median 9.24 Years below average rainfall - 29 Years above average rainfall - 21 We should really be using median rainfall - not average. The rainfall outliers are more extreme above the average causing the average to be above the median. I think median is more meaningful when looking to see if a year is unusal and to report above or below seasonal rainfall levels. 10.18 is the mean, which is just one of the ways to calculate the average. The median is also an average. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 14, 2014 10:18:12 GMT -8
I have meant to look into this for a while. I suspected that using the average rainfall would place most years below the average rainfall. I looked up rainfall in San Diego by year. Found numbers for the last 50 years: Average 10.18 inches. Median 9.24 Years below average rainfall - 29 Years above average rainfall - 21 We should really be using median rainfall - not average. The rainfall outliers are more extreme above the average causing the average to be above the median. I think median is more meaningful when looking to see if a year is unusal and to report above or below seasonal rainfall levels. 10.18 is the mean, which is just one of the ways to calculate the average. The median is also an average. Average can mean something other than mean in the dictionary meaning but by common usage it is (only) the mean and that is how I used it. |
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Post by uwphoto on Jul 17, 2014 17:47:57 GMT -8
I'm officially calling the 2014 El Nino. Have not seen this many hammerhead sharks in local waters since the 1983 big El Nino. I know, not much of a reach, certainly not as much as Bill's "I would destroy Neil deGrasse Tyson in a debate about global warming" or the "Earth can accommodate 100 billion people"! |
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 17, 2014 20:30:33 GMT -8
I'm officially calling the 2014 El Nino. Have not seen this many hammerhead sharks in local waters since the 1983 big El Nino. I know, not much of a reach, certainly not as much as Bill's "I would destroy Neil deGrasse Tyson in a debate about global warming" or the "Earth can accommodate 100 billion people"! The beginning is when a certain threshold is passed. Some technical thing. |
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Post by some_aztec on Jul 17, 2014 21:16:12 GMT -8
I have meant to look into this for a while. I suspected that using the average rainfall would place most years below the average rainfall. I looked up rainfall in San Diego by year. Found numbers for the last 50 years: Average 10.18 inches. Median 9.24 Years below average rainfall - 29 Years above average rainfall - 21 We should really be using median rainfall - not average. The rainfall outliers are more extreme above the average causing the average to be above the median. I think median is more meaningful when looking to see if a year is unusal and to report above or below seasonal rainfall levels. Actually, the weather service only counts the past 30 years when computing their average. (Basically, each time a rainfall season ends in a "0", they cut off the previous decade. So when we finished the 2010-2011 rainfall year, we no longer counted the 1970s rainfall in the average) Right now, our average is 10.33 inches (~26cm) (based on the rainfall totals that fell in the 1980s, 1990s & 2000s). That being said, you calculated the average rainfall including the present few years and the 1960s which have been historically dry. (The 2000s were the 3rd driest decade on record (going back to the 1850s), with the 1960s being the second driest) -- which probably explains why your average is lower than the "official" average for the city. ------------ Also, while things are certainly shaping up to be an El Nino year, don't get your hopes up for lots of rainfall, unless it is one of the very strong ones. During typical El Nino years, most of California gets normal amounts of rainfall. It's only in the really strong events (82-83/97-98) that California tends to get lots of rain. (Granted, getting a normal amount of rain is always good in California!) (We had a weak El Nino year in 2004-2005, and received over 22 inches (56cm) of rain, while 2 years later we also had a weak El Nino and only received 3.85 inches of rain (~10cm) ) A couple of weeks ago, there was lots of optimism that a strong El Nino year was brewing. The water was warming rapidly, however, it doesn't seem like the atmosphere has been responding to the warmer-than-normal water, stalling the temperature growth. Most of the long-term models are still predicting an El Nino year, however, most are predicting a moderate to weak El Nino year. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 17, 2014 21:48:50 GMT -8
I have meant to look into this for a while. I suspected that using the average rainfall would place most years below the average rainfall. I looked up rainfall in San Diego by year. Found numbers for the last 50 years: Average 10.18 inches. Median 9.24 Years below average rainfall - 29 Years above average rainfall - 21 We should really be using median rainfall - not average. The rainfall outliers are more extreme above the average causing the average to be above the median. I think median is more meaningful when looking to see if a year is unusal and to report above or below seasonal rainfall levels. Actually, the weather service only counts the past 30 years when computing their average. (Basically, each time a rainfall season ends in a "0", they cut off the previous decade. So when we finished the 2010-2011 rainfall year, we no longer counted the 1970s rainfall in the average) Right now, our average is 10.33 inches (~26cm) (based on the rainfall totals that fell in the 1980s, 1990s & 2000s). That being said, you calculated the average rainfall including the present few years and the 1960s which have been historically dry. (The 2000s were the 3rd driest decade on record (going back to the 1850s), with the 1960s being the second driest) -- which probably explains why your average is lower than the "official" average for the city. ------------ Also, while things are certainly shaping up to be an El Nino year, don't get your hopes up for lots of rainfall, unless it is one of the very strong ones. During typical El Nino years, most of California gets normal amounts of rainfall. It's only in the really strong events (82-83/97-98) that California tends to get lots of rain. (Granted, getting a normal amount of rain is always good in California!) (We had a weak El Nino year in 2004-2005, and received over 22 inches (56cm) of rain, while 2 years later we also had a weak El Nino and only received 3.85 inches of rain (~10cm) ) A couple of weeks ago, there was lots of optimism that a strong El Nino year was brewing. The water was warming rapidly, however, it doesn't seem like the atmosphere has been responding to the warmer-than-normal water, stalling the temperature growth. Most of the long-term models are still predicting an El Nino year, however, most are predicting a moderate to weak El Nino year. Seems like you totally missed my point. Be careful to not confuse an example with a point. |
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Post by Aztec89 on Jul 18, 2014 18:59:30 GMT -8
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Post by AztecBill on Aug 11, 2014 9:46:16 GMT -8
A lot of talk about the current drought but 1976/1977 in California was a total different level of drought - to the bad side.
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 20, 2014 13:00:14 GMT -8
We are in the negative phase of the PDO which produces more la ninas than el ninos. That is why it has been a while since our last one. There is a good chance of one this summer. Higher temps and more rain. Haha.. "good chance of one happening this summer" its already here and acknowledged by the scientific community. I was in 73 degree water at the nine-mile bank yesterday. My friend had a hammerhead shark in 60 feet of water 30 miles south of the border and the Dana Point whale watch had one this week. Other exotics showing up. Better get up to speed Bill. Still no El Nino NOAA has reduced the chance of an El Nino down to 58%. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.htmlA few months ago they said it was a dead certainty that we would have an El Nino but that certainty has been reduced significantly. When we are in a negative PDO, El Ninos are much harder to achieve. There are fewer and weaker El Ninos and more and stronger La Ninas. |
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Post by AztecWilliam on Dec 22, 2014 19:02:15 GMT -8
Interesting and valuable thread. However, it really belongs in the Science, Technology, and Economics board. Expect it to get moved there shortly.
AzWm
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