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Post by AztecWilliam on Apr 30, 2014 15:40:09 GMT -8
My personal opinion is that Putin does not plan on invading all of Ukraine. I think it would be really stupid to do that, since he would be creating a giant Chechnya that would be a source of anti-Russian insurgency for years. Of course, I haven't gotten any phone calls from Vlad lately, so maybe he will do something stupid.
Let's assume for the moment that Putin seeks to swallow up eastern Ukraine, a region with a majority of Russian speakers. Let's further assume that Putin will send in Russian army units, tanks, armored personnel carriers, etc. What will the West do? So far, for a variety of reasons, our western European allies have been almost totally unwilling to take any serious actions against Russia. Will this continue if the Russian army rolls?
My feeling is that, as reluctant as the Europeans are to do anything, there may come a time when they feel they must act. I will remind you that Adolf Hitler was convinced that France and Britain would stand by and do nothing if he invaded Poland. This situation is not that grave, but there could be some very bad days ahead if Putin continues to think that he has a free hand to rewrite borders at will.
I am eager to hear what others think about this.
AzWm
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Post by John, Your Pal on Apr 30, 2014 16:46:39 GMT -8
What happens if Russian tanks roll? If it happens before November 2016, nothing at all. |
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Post by aztecwin on Apr 30, 2014 18:00:24 GMT -8
What happens if Russian tanks roll? If it happens before November 2016, nothing at all. Probably close. If between election day and inauguration day it might get messy depending on who is due to take the conn. |
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Post by AztecWilliam on Apr 30, 2014 18:20:14 GMT -8
I need to clarify my thoughts on this a bit more. I was thinking mainly that the Europeans themselves might at last figure that they have no choice but to react, and in a very significant way. Militarily? Most unlikely. But the European Union could tell the Russians that they could keep their damned gas and oil. Yes, that would create havoc in the economies in the West, but it would kill the Russian economy. And, lest you think that the Euros will never take action that drastic, remember that the appeasers and pacifists in Britain and France actually did declare war in 1939. We should not forget that the French and Brits could have issued more stern warnings and kept their military safely at home. It would have been cowardly and perhaps only delayed war somewhat, but it was nevertheless a valid option at the time.
If Putin invades Ukraine, even if just to annex the eastern portion, nobody in the West could turn the other way. I'm not sure they would take the extreme economic action, but I also cannot think that they would not know their inaction would bear very serious consequences.
AzWm
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Post by AlwaysAnAztec on May 1, 2014 7:47:45 GMT -8
AW - I tend to agree with you. Ukraine has put itself in a spot by not having any mutual self defense treaties with any western country that I am aware of. Because of that, there is no legal reason for any western country to, militarily, come to the aid of Ukraine. Now sanctions are another matter. The west telling Russia to pound sand when it comes to their oil and gas would put a crimp into the Russian economy.
Putin saying that he must come to the aid of all ethnic Russians in other countries, and acting on it, would ignite a shooting war as the Baltic States are members of NATO.
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Post by AztecWilliam on May 2, 2014 10:59:22 GMT -8
AW - I tend to agree with you. Ukraine has put itself in a spot by not having any mutual self defense treaties with any western country that I am aware of. Because of that, there is no legal reason for any western country to, militarily, come to the aid of Ukraine. Now sanctions are another matter. The west telling Russia to pound sand when it comes to their oil and gas would put a crimp into the Russian economy. Putin saying that he must come to the aid of all ethnic Russians in other countries, and acting on it, would ignite a shooting war as the Baltic States are members of NATO. More and more, I cannot imagine a situation in which a lot of people are not going to get killed if Putin intervenes militarily. Ethnic Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine will not just shrug and say, "That's the way the cookie crumbles." They will fight. I think Putin is playing a very dangerous game here, one which almost certainly will have grave consequences for him and Russia. That does not mean that he will act rationally, however. AzWm |
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Post by aztecmusician on May 6, 2014 11:12:46 GMT -8
I don't think Putin fears any economic penalties. The W European powers have little in terms of military capabilities, It could be that Putin really wants the Sudetenland errrrrr the Ukraine back in the Russian Empire.
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