Post by AztecWilliam on Mar 1, 2014 23:28:34 GMT -8
The Ukraine situation is, in my not-so-humble opinion, getting to look very, very ominous. I don't know how it will all turn out, but it will probably be ugly.
The article I am linking paints a dispiriting picture. focus is on how Putin's mind works and whether the West understands those workings. What can we do? There are at least some actions we could take, but did you hear or read the President's statement about Ukraine? It was so couched in equivocations that I doubt Putin and his gang will do more than shrug.
www.newrepublic.com/article/116810/putin-declares-war-ukraine-and-us-or-nato-wont-do-much
Here is one of the responses to the piece which I found interesting. I am commenting on the author point by point . . .
JamesSchumaker
Putin can of course invade eastern Ukraine, as you point out, just because he
can. But as President Obama has said, there will be costs. Ultimately, by
taking an aggressive step like this that violates international agreements,
Putin will be reaping the whirlwind, and the West and Russia could descend
into a new Cold War where all options, military, political, economic are on
the table. Here are just a few of the things that could happen.
(1) At a minimum, I think Putin and other oligarchs in his circle can kiss
goodbye to the billions they have stored in the West, as well as their ability
to travel to the West.
I hope the West does in fact take that action. Such action will be taken, but I'm not sure it will be.
(2) Negotiations on a number of critical areas, including Syria and Iran, will
grind to a halt, and military options will become much more palatable.
Yes, and no. Negotiations are mostly pointless, so whether they continue or not may not matter. As for military options, don't count on it if U.S. leadership is required. Since Pres. Obama is loath to use military power (and that is probably a good default position if not taken too far) I doubt even threats of military actions will be made. That's okay since we really cannot afford to start a war over Ukraine, as despicable as Russia's actions may be. What is not okay is to basically look the other way and make Putin and Russia pay any price at all for its aggression.
(3) Russia may find that other countries would prefer to take their energy
supplies from other countries, since Russia has shown that it cannot be
trusted to fulfill any agreement.
In the long run, that might work. In the short run, Russia can squeeze Western Europe very seriously by withholding fuel. Reminds me of Stalin's attempt to starve West Berlin in the 1948/49. That lead to the Berlin Airlift.
(4) Paradoxically, the price of energy could actually plummet, if the U.S.
and Saudi Arabia open the energy taps, and Russia would soon find itself
strapped for cash and its economy in free fall.
Will President Obama go on TV and essentially tell his rabid environmental supporters that their goal of banning fossil fuel usage is going to have to wait for a few more years?
(5) Russia's action could start a race among the minor powers to acquire
nuclear weapons, destabilizing the global power equation, and seriously
affecting Russia's own security.
Quite possible. However, Iran's goal of becoming a nuclear military power is probably a more serious incentive for minor powers to go nuclear. Destabilization would be a given.
(6) NATO could beef up its defenses in Poland and elsewhere, including deployment of those pesky missiles Russians keep complaining about.
President Obama would have to renounce his early deal which undercut the Poles and Czechs. And we should keep in mind that Obama's administration has just announced very serious reductions in our military spending. He does not want to have to reverse course on that matter
(7) And of course, while Russia can easily defeat Ukraine militarily, Ukrainians will resist,
and this will not stop when the Russians declare "victory." Whatever part of
Ukraine survives will be firmly in the NATO camp, and that part that Putin
occupies will become a continuing drain and source of weakness for the
Russian Empire.
Could very well happen. Putin seems to think he is on a roll and probably believes that he will be able to crush any resistance. But it's easier to get into an insurgency situation than it is to get out of one. My guess is that he has not taken the lesson of Soviet intervention in Afghanistan seriously.
It's a dark scenario, and the only real hope we have is that Putin is still a rational actor, and is just engaging in saber-rattling.
Putin works according to what he considers rational principles. His mind is not working the way ours do. Are we willing to assume that he will see the folly of further expansion and therefore stand back from the abyss?
AzWm
The article I am linking paints a dispiriting picture. focus is on how Putin's mind works and whether the West understands those workings. What can we do? There are at least some actions we could take, but did you hear or read the President's statement about Ukraine? It was so couched in equivocations that I doubt Putin and his gang will do more than shrug.
www.newrepublic.com/article/116810/putin-declares-war-ukraine-and-us-or-nato-wont-do-much
Here is one of the responses to the piece which I found interesting. I am commenting on the author point by point . . .
JamesSchumaker
Putin can of course invade eastern Ukraine, as you point out, just because he
can. But as President Obama has said, there will be costs. Ultimately, by
taking an aggressive step like this that violates international agreements,
Putin will be reaping the whirlwind, and the West and Russia could descend
into a new Cold War where all options, military, political, economic are on
the table. Here are just a few of the things that could happen.
(1) At a minimum, I think Putin and other oligarchs in his circle can kiss
goodbye to the billions they have stored in the West, as well as their ability
to travel to the West.
I hope the West does in fact take that action. Such action will be taken, but I'm not sure it will be.
(2) Negotiations on a number of critical areas, including Syria and Iran, will
grind to a halt, and military options will become much more palatable.
Yes, and no. Negotiations are mostly pointless, so whether they continue or not may not matter. As for military options, don't count on it if U.S. leadership is required. Since Pres. Obama is loath to use military power (and that is probably a good default position if not taken too far) I doubt even threats of military actions will be made. That's okay since we really cannot afford to start a war over Ukraine, as despicable as Russia's actions may be. What is not okay is to basically look the other way and make Putin and Russia pay any price at all for its aggression.
(3) Russia may find that other countries would prefer to take their energy
supplies from other countries, since Russia has shown that it cannot be
trusted to fulfill any agreement.
In the long run, that might work. In the short run, Russia can squeeze Western Europe very seriously by withholding fuel. Reminds me of Stalin's attempt to starve West Berlin in the 1948/49. That lead to the Berlin Airlift.
(4) Paradoxically, the price of energy could actually plummet, if the U.S.
and Saudi Arabia open the energy taps, and Russia would soon find itself
strapped for cash and its economy in free fall.
Will President Obama go on TV and essentially tell his rabid environmental supporters that their goal of banning fossil fuel usage is going to have to wait for a few more years?
(5) Russia's action could start a race among the minor powers to acquire
nuclear weapons, destabilizing the global power equation, and seriously
affecting Russia's own security.
Quite possible. However, Iran's goal of becoming a nuclear military power is probably a more serious incentive for minor powers to go nuclear. Destabilization would be a given.
(6) NATO could beef up its defenses in Poland and elsewhere, including deployment of those pesky missiles Russians keep complaining about.
President Obama would have to renounce his early deal which undercut the Poles and Czechs. And we should keep in mind that Obama's administration has just announced very serious reductions in our military spending. He does not want to have to reverse course on that matter
(7) And of course, while Russia can easily defeat Ukraine militarily, Ukrainians will resist,
and this will not stop when the Russians declare "victory." Whatever part of
Ukraine survives will be firmly in the NATO camp, and that part that Putin
occupies will become a continuing drain and source of weakness for the
Russian Empire.
Could very well happen. Putin seems to think he is on a roll and probably believes that he will be able to crush any resistance. But it's easier to get into an insurgency situation than it is to get out of one. My guess is that he has not taken the lesson of Soviet intervention in Afghanistan seriously.
It's a dark scenario, and the only real hope we have is that Putin is still a rational actor, and is just engaging in saber-rattling.
Putin works according to what he considers rational principles. His mind is not working the way ours do. Are we willing to assume that he will see the folly of further expansion and therefore stand back from the abyss?
AzWm
