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Post by sleepy on Aug 16, 2012 12:52:27 GMT -8
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Post by sdsustoner on Aug 16, 2012 13:09:43 GMT -8
Sit him. The stats prove pitchers who throw a ton of innings before the age of 24 are by far less likely to have a successful career to the point of not being in baseball after 30.
Look at what happened with Steve Avery. He was arguably the best of Atlanta's young guns in the early 90s. He threw twice as many pitches from his rookie year until he was 24 as his teammates Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. At 28, Avery's arm was dead as was his career. Glavine and Smoltz had HOF careers Avery was robbed of because they killed his arm.
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Post by mySTRAS on Aug 16, 2012 14:13:07 GMT -8
As a Strasburg fan... and not a Nationals fan per se... I'm now leaning towards shutting him down entirely at ~ 160.
While NOBODY can say definitively what is the right move... I'd really like to see Stras pitch for the next 10-12 years. He has a real shot to live up to ALL of the hype.
Was at the Giants/Nationals game yesterday. He threw an offspeed pitch that had Hunter Pence diving out of the batters box (for fear of being hit). The pitch ended up being a called (correctly) strike. It was freakin' hilarious. Absolutely froze Buster Posey (one of the league's best hitters) on a 3-2 curveball for a called strike 3.
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Post by 78aztec82 on Aug 16, 2012 15:41:27 GMT -8
I posed a scenario in the other thread but since then got info from some folks close to the Nats that say his surgeon and the medical staff are very strong on shutting him down. I defer to their expertise. I also think they could have paced his starts a little, skipping him every time they had an off-day (keeping the rest of the rotation on 5 days) and a little extended rest at the All-Star break. That may have set him up to pitch in the playoffs, perhaps busting the 180 innings limit just a bit.
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Post by danloc09 on Aug 16, 2012 17:33:11 GMT -8
Sit him. The stats prove pitchers who throw a ton of innings before the age of 24 are by far less likely to have a successful career to the point of not being in baseball after 30. Look at what happened with Steve Avery. He was arguably the best of Atlanta's young guns in the early 90s. He threw twice as many pitches from his rookie year until he was 24 as his teammates Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. At 28, Avery's arm was dead as was his career. Glavine and Smoltz had HOF careers Avery was robbed of because they killed his arm. Eh, you can pick examples of young pitchers doing fine also. I don't think there's definitive proof either way. |
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Post by aztecgold on Aug 16, 2012 18:52:18 GMT -8
Of course, you sit him. He is the Franchise. Why ruin his career for one year. Where they blew it was not using him sparingly throughout the year so he could be used in September and October. The Padres had a fake injury with Latos one year when they were trying to save his innings pitched and sat him out for 3 weeks one year. The Nationals should have done something like that to save his innings and have him available at the end of the year. It is on them, not Strasburg.
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Post by danloc09 on Aug 16, 2012 19:34:52 GMT -8
Of course, you sit him. He is the Franchise. Why ruin his career for one year. Where they blew it was not using him sparingly throughout the year so he could be used in September and October. The Padres had a fake injury with Latos one year when they were trying to save his innings pitched and sat him out for 3 weeks one year. The Nationals should have done something like that to save his innings and have him available at the end of the year. It is on them, not Strasburg. Why ever pitch anyone more than 160 innings? It could ruin careers! |
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Post by C'mon Man on Aug 16, 2012 19:46:49 GMT -8
There's a pretty well renowned theory or study (not sure which) that says if you increase a pitcher's innings by more than a certain % each year (I believe around 20%) then he is much more likely to develop arm/shoulder injuries.
For Stras, consider how few innings he threw per season at SDSU combined w/ his rapid accent to the bigs, which robbed him of time to develop arm strength in the minors like mortals do, then you have a recipe for disaster if he is pushed to the limit.
Smart move to shut him down. The Nats core is young and the only things that can slow them down from being a contender for the next 10 years are injuries and free agency.
C'mon Man!
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Post by danloc09 on Aug 16, 2012 19:51:55 GMT -8
There's a pretty well renowned theory or study (not sure which) that says if you increase a pitcher's innings by more than a certain % each year (I believe around 20%) then he is much more likely to develop arm/shoulder injuries. For Stras, consider how few innings he threw per season at SDSU combined w/ his rapid accent to the bigs, which robbed him of time to develop arm strength in the minors like mortals do, then you have a recipe for disaster if he is pushed to the limit. Smart move to shut him down. The Nats core is young and the only things that can slow them down from being a contender for the next 10 years are injuries and free agency. C'mon Man! I've never seen anything like that (unless you are talking about 10 year olds). For every guy who got hurt young, there's a bunch who were fine. Look at pretty much every elite pitcher right now, and lots of them have handled more innings pitched at a younger age. |
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Post by C'mon Man on Aug 16, 2012 20:05:24 GMT -8
There's a pretty well renowned theory or study (not sure which) that says if you increase a pitcher's innings by more than a certain % each year (I believe around 20%) then he is much more likely to develop arm/shoulder injuries. For Stras, consider how few innings he threw per season at SDSU combined w/ his rapid accent to the bigs, which robbed him of time to develop arm strength in the minors like mortals do, then you have a recipe for disaster if he is pushed to the limit. Smart move to shut him down. The Nats core is young and the only things that can slow them down from being a contender for the next 10 years are injuries and free agency. C'mon Man! I've never seen anything like that (unless you are talking about 10 year olds). For every guy who got hurt young, there's a bunch who were fine. Look at pretty much every elite pitcher right now, and lots of them have handled more innings pitched at a younger age. OK, you made me actually look it up. It's called the Verducci Effect named after SI columnist Tom Verducci. The rule is a 30 inning increase year over year. Here is the most relevant article I found after a few minutes of google research sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/01/11/verducci.effect/index.html |
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Post by danloc09 on Aug 16, 2012 20:11:09 GMT -8
I've never seen anything like that (unless you are talking about 10 year olds). For every guy who got hurt young, there's a bunch who were fine. Look at pretty much every elite pitcher right now, and lots of them have handled more innings pitched at a younger age. OK, you made me actually look it up. It's called the Verducci Effect named after SI columnist Tom Verducci. The rule is a 30 inning increase year over year. Here is the most relevant article I found after a few minutes of google research sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/01/11/verducci.effect/index.htmlEh, I have a problem with the evidence of that article. He brings up 10 pitchers who broke his workload rule, then talks about how 4 got worse, 2 were okay, and 4 were really good. Doesn't seem like the increase has anything to do with that though. Maybe those 4 pitchers just aren't that good? I think pitchers get hurt because they are doing something ridiculous with their arm to throw a ball. Guys get hurt because guys get hurt, I don't think it's any more complicated than that. Ultimately the Nationals can do and believe what they want, that's their right. I just don't think there is enough conclusive evidence to support either side. |
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Post by C'mon Man on Aug 16, 2012 20:33:02 GMT -8
Eh, I have a problem with the evidence of that article. He brings up 10 pitchers who broke his workload rule, then talks about how 4 got worse, 2 were okay, and 4 were really good. Doesn't seem like the increase has anything to do with that though. Maybe those 4 pitchers just aren't that good? I think pitchers get hurt because they are doing something ridiculous with their arm to throw a ball. Guys get hurt because guys get hurt, I don't think it's any more complicated than that. Ultimately the Nationals can do and believe what they want, that's their right. I just don't think there is enough conclusive evidence to support either side. Like I said, this isn't the evidence of his original study. That was done a few years before the article. The only reason I know of the Verducci Effect is because Latos was under the same watchful eye two years ago as a Padre and this was brought up as a reason why. I would be very interested to read his original piece of work. He's no idiot and I'm sure must know that 10 samples does not make something statistically significant. People seem to be looking for logical explanations for GM Rizzo's reason to shut down Stras. This is the most relevant explanation I can think of. I happen to agree with it, especially considering the age/talent/long term potential of the team. Others won't and that's fine. Baseball has always had contasting beliefs in how to build an organization. C'mon Man? Haha |
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Post by insider on Aug 16, 2012 20:38:35 GMT -8
Any sensible organization would shut Strasburg down.
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Post by danloc09 on Aug 16, 2012 20:40:16 GMT -8
Eh, I have a problem with the evidence of that article. He brings up 10 pitchers who broke his workload rule, then talks about how 4 got worse, 2 were okay, and 4 were really good. Doesn't seem like the increase has anything to do with that though. Maybe those 4 pitchers just aren't that good? I think pitchers get hurt because they are doing something ridiculous with their arm to throw a ball. Guys get hurt because guys get hurt, I don't think it's any more complicated than that. Ultimately the Nationals can do and believe what they want, that's their right. I just don't think there is enough conclusive evidence to support either side. Like I said, this isn't the evidence of his original study. That was done a few years before the article. The only reason I know of the Verducci Effect is because Latos was under the same watchful eye two years ago as a Padre and this was brought up as a reason why. I would be very interested to read his original piece of work. He's no idiot and I'm sure must know that 10 samples does not make something statistically significant. People seem to be looking for logical explanations for GM Rizzo's reason to shut down Stras. This is the most relevant explanation I can think of. I happen to agree with it, especially considering the age/talent/long term potential of the team. Others won't and that's fine. Baseball has always had contasting beliefs in how to build an organization. C'mon Man? Haha Word. I'd like to see the original piece/data. |
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Post by jhonka34 on Aug 17, 2012 0:02:43 GMT -8
Of course, you sit him. He is the Franchise. Why ruin his career for one year. Where they blew it was not using him sparingly throughout the year so he could be used in September and October. The Padres had a fake injury with Latos one year when they were trying to save his innings pitched and sat him out for 3 weeks one year. The Nationals should have done something like that to save his innings and have him available at the end of the year. It is on them, not Strasburg. I'm for sitting him as well, but I agree, they knew there was a cap, and the extra rest would only ensure that he didn't over use his arm due to fatigue. They should've had a game cap (pitches or innings) and use off days to expand his rest. Then he would not only be able to pitch in the playoffs, but also be very fresh. |
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Post by sdsustoner on Aug 17, 2012 8:47:24 GMT -8
Sit him. The stats prove pitchers who throw a ton of innings before the age of 24 are by far less likely to have a successful career to the point of not being in baseball after 30. Look at what happened with Steve Avery. He was arguably the best of Atlanta's young guns in the early 90s. He threw twice as many pitches from his rookie year until he was 24 as his teammates Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. At 28, Avery's arm was dead as was his career. Glavine and Smoltz had HOF careers Avery was robbed of because they killed his arm. Eh, you can pick examples of young pitchers doing fine also. I don't think there's definitive proof either way. Actually, there's medical advice and also stats that show it's better to sit him. I brought up Avery due to his great talent being wasted. He would've been another HOF pitcher on that staff. |
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Post by Dave L on Aug 17, 2012 8:54:36 GMT -8
This scenario has provided every sportswriter with 3-4 articles...all saying the exact same thing.  |
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Post by danloc09 on Aug 17, 2012 9:57:33 GMT -8
Eh, you can pick examples of young pitchers doing fine also. I don't think there's definitive proof either way. Actually, there's medical advice and also stats that show it's better to sit him. I brought up Avery due to his great talent being wasted. He would've been another HOF pitcher on that staff. I believe you, I've just never seen it. |
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