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Post by azteccc on Jul 27, 2012 14:45:00 GMT -8
I think the 2013-14 season, our first in the Big West should all the moving pieces finish with us there, will be the most important season in the last 30 years of Aztec basketball.
Part of this will have to do with us and whether we handle our business, and the second half will be how the selection committee treats a very good team from a horrible conference.
If we do as well as expected, get a decent seed (6-7 seed, after going damn near undefeated), and can make a sweet 16 or so... Our current momentum will keep up and interested players of our current caliber will still look at SDSU as a viable place to have a good collegiate career, as long as we keep the winning ways and OOC scheduling. Albeit, we won't ever be in the running for top 5-stars out of the big west like we were getting close to, but guys we catch early, transfers, etc will continue to come our way and keep us at about the same level we were this year.
If we do as well as expected, but the committee takes into account our conference schedule and we get a 9-11 seed (likely), it is going to be very hard to win more than one game in the tournament. If recruits start to see that a 28-3 SDSU team out of the BW is getting a 10 seed and having to go through a Kansas or North Carolina just to make a Sweet 16, our recruiting is going to dip. Combine the tourney committee blackballing us with limited exposure and low prestige, and the caliber of guys we have now simply wont come our way. We'll make do with our staff and facilities and fans, but given time (2 or 3 years) we'll end up close to a UCSB or LBSU. That is what the Big West is about - bball teams that can use their tools to field a good team every now and then, but nowhere near a national name or nationally relevant.
If we do worse than expected, well, then we might be in dire trouble.
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Post by goaztecs on Jul 27, 2012 14:51:55 GMT -8
We will be in the MWC for 2012-13
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Post by azteccc on Jul 27, 2012 15:04:26 GMT -8
Yea, ixnay that. 2013-14, my sincerest apologies.
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Post by iambballanalyst on Jul 27, 2012 15:11:23 GMT -8
Yea, ixnay that. 2013-14, my sincerest apologies. You're absolutely correct. But I'll take it a step further, THIS upcoming season is just as important because it's an opportunity for San Diego State to solidify itself as a national elite and the #1 choice for basketball on the West Coast. If ecruits know they can come to SDSU and be better than UCLA, CAL, AZ, and other PAC 12 schools, they'll overlook the conference brand and gravitate to things like The Show, our style of play, Steve Fisher's coaching philosophy etc. Plus seeing back to back 1st rd picks from SDSU will put players at ease about their chances of getting drafted out of SDSU as opposed to having to go to a PAC 12 school to get NBA looks.
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Post by jdgaucho on Jul 27, 2012 15:17:53 GMT -8
You will have the big-time out of conference schedule, be seen on espn and fox sports, give fans the chance to actually travel to away conference games, and should make the NCAA tournament every year you are here. Tell me that UCSB and Long Beach did not benefit from 16-20 total appearances on espn also (all but two being espnu and espn 2 so mostly everyone around the country could see us. imagine what SDSU could do with that extra coverage).
the Big West also had more players drafted than the Mountain West this year, too.
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Post by quickdraw on Jul 27, 2012 16:00:34 GMT -8
Ther OP has a very well thought out scenario and I agree. and should make the NCAA tournament every year you are here. Tell me that UCSB and Long Beach did not benefit from 16-20 total appearances on espn also (all but two being espnu and espn 2 so mostly everyone around the country could see us. imagine what SDSU could do with that extra coverage). First before you go giving away those conference championships I'd let UCSB and LBSU have a shot at them on the court. I don't know how many people watched those 9PM PST games east of the Mississippi at 11PM and midnight. You're absolutely correct. But I'll take it a step further, THIS upcoming season is just as important because it's an opportunity for San Diego State to solidify itself as a national elite and the #1 choice for basketball on the West Coast. If ecruits know they can come to SDSU and be better than UCLA, CAL, AZ, and other PAC 12 schools Plus seeing back to back 1st rd picks from SDSU will put players at ease about their chances of getting drafted out of SDSU as opposed to having to go to a PAC 12 school to get NBA looks. First you need to make it to be an Elite team before you can be solidified as one. I don't know how many top recruits will be taking time to decide between a PAC 12 and a Big West school. Who are these back to back first round draft players coming out of the SDSU's Big West teams. I can only see a possibility of WS if he is still there.
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Post by jdgaucho on Jul 27, 2012 16:30:08 GMT -8
Ther OP has a very well thought out scenario and I agree. and should make the NCAA tournament every year you are here. Tell me that UCSB and Long Beach did not benefit from 16-20 total appearances on espn also (all but two being espnu and espn 2 so mostly everyone around the country could see us. imagine what SDSU could do with that extra coverage). First before you go giving away those conference championships I'd let UCSB and LBSU have a shot at them on the court. I don't know how many people watched those 9PM PST games east of the Mississippi at 11PM and midnight. I know the two of us should contend but there is a big question mark as to what type of job Bob Williams and Dan Monson will do rebuilding. It will be difficult to replace the talent that both sides lost. Hard for Santa Barbara to replace an NBA prospect, let alone two or potentially even three. and Long Beach loses almost everyone who mattered including Casper Ware. combine that with SDSU's supposedly super class and it will be a tough go of it for UCSB and LBSU. However, who knows? one of us will probably trip up SDSU at least once. the top of the BW will have strong out of conference schedules that will keep the RPIs reasonable.
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Post by quickdraw on Jul 27, 2012 16:50:01 GMT -8
combine that with SDSU's supposedly super class and it will be a tough go of it for UCSB and LBSU. However, who knows? one of us will probably trip up SDSU at least once. the top of the BW will have strong out of conference schedules that will keep the RPIs reasonable. Well I would say the Aztecs have a very good recruiting class coming in but I wouldn't call it super. UCSB AND LBSU have a year to get restocked before SDSU comes and everything can change year to year based on what the OP posted. Top BW teams have an uphill fight RPI wise because of what the bottom of the BWC does to drag the RPI down. With 5 teams over 200 and 2 of those over 300 it will be tough to compensate for that. It's all about quality OOC wins and a near perfect win record to get any love outside of the tournament win.
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Post by azteccc on Jul 27, 2012 19:31:00 GMT -8
Our 8-12 guys and walkons could form a top 3 big west team. It's just a matter of reloading, and unless the cards fall perfect, it will quickly become rebuilding. Rebuilding is fine, except we really haven't had to for a decade. And when we do have to rebuild, after Fisher is gone, do we keep getting JJ OBriens and Matt Shrigleys, or (the more likely scenario) do we rebuild with Alex Williams' and Matt Thomas'. One keeps us nationally relevant (as much as that's possible out of the BW anyway), and the other regresses us back to the happy for an NIT home game program.
If the move goes through, I guess we'll find out which.
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Post by aztecmusician on Jul 28, 2012 0:13:32 GMT -8
The team returns a lot of talent, the entire backcourt. We shall see how much heart and determination the new players have. The more I see of Matt Shrigley on video the more I like.
The games vs. UCLA, UNLV, New Mexico and the Arizona schools will be the measuring stick and determine who is the best in the West. Beat UCLA, Arizona and win the MWC Championship and the Aztecs should receive a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA's.
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Post by aztecwin on Jul 28, 2012 17:39:41 GMT -8
I doubt that our stay in the Big West will be all that long.
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Post by monty on Jul 28, 2012 22:46:27 GMT -8
this year is most important - we're loaded and we have built a pretty damn good rep the last three years (and to some extent last half dozen years) and should be able to capitalize on it with some marquee matchups that will be well monitored. We should expect a deep tourney run this year: you get past the sweet 16, you've bought a hell of a lot of rep for a few years, particularly when you are selling out a 12,414 arena.
You can sit in fear of the big west move; but the reality is we can start carving our name into the top 15 program stone with an elite 8 or more this year, and that is certainly possible. Hell, Gonzaga is still living off that elite 8 that has to be 10 or more years ago now.
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Post by SDSU-Alum2003 on Jul 28, 2012 23:13:22 GMT -8
this year is most important - we're loaded and we have built a pretty damn good rep the last three years (and to some extent last half dozen years) and should be able to capitalize on it with some marquee matchups that will be well monitored. We should expect a deep tourney run this year: you get past the sweet 16, you've bought a hell of a lot of rep for a few years, particularly when you are selling out a 12,414 arena. You can sit in fear of the big west move; but the reality is we can start carving our name into the top 15 program stone with an elite 8 or more this year, and that is certainly possible. Hell, Gonzaga is still living off that elite 8 that has to be 10 or more years ago now. Speaking of a sold out Viejas... I have 8 season tickets and I don't EVER plan on letting them go ( as I will guess is the case with most season ticket holders). The days of walking up to get a ticket at the "V" on game day are over. IMO if you don't have season seats now good luck getting a seat in the years to come... Even when we are playing in the Big West.
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Post by pseudoaztec on Jul 29, 2012 13:32:43 GMT -8
If they keep winning, everything else will fall into place. Some of us have to accept that NO MATTER WHAT, the Aztec BB program will NEVER be Duke. But, I like the way this PROGRAM is set up. Fish will leave the PROGRAM in solid hands, with Dutch (who I think is the perfect transitional coach for Fish) Tony B., and Mark F., (and maybe Tim Shelton) still recruiting VERY GOOD BB players who will continue to win...in the BW for now (you never know how things will shake out in a year or two conference wise).
What does all that mean? True, we will never be Duke, but no reason at all why we can't be the best BB PROGRAM west of the Mississippi. No reason at all.
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Post by robertcb on Jul 29, 2012 18:39:10 GMT -8
The biggest short term question will be how SDSU does after Fisher retires. That is where there could be a big drop off and not your entry in the BW.
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Post by azteccc on Jul 29, 2012 20:29:02 GMT -8
The biggest short term question will be how SDSU does after Fisher retires. That is where there could be a big drop off and not your entry in the BW. Its a pretty f'd up combo within a couple years of each other...
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Post by MontezumaPhil on Jul 29, 2012 21:22:24 GMT -8
Fisher has all the confidence in Dutcher. But if after a couple of seasons it appears Dutch is not the right head man for the long run, we will have the resources to hire somebody who is. We were amazingly lucky to get Fish, but from now on it won't take luck. This has become a highly desirable job.
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 30, 2012 10:04:41 GMT -8
The OP is right. We must show in the first BW year that things won't change because of the new conference. If things seem to change so will recruiting which leads to everything else. Has 2012-2013 and the prior few years been a relative high for the program or a new plateau ? That is the question that will be answered.
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Post by uncledougy on Jul 30, 2012 10:23:33 GMT -8
I really don't think the move to the Big West will hurt that much. Don't start laughing now.....here me out. The MWC is good, but the kids we recruit aren't happy to be playing in the MWC. Never have I heard a recruit say "ever since I was a little kid, I wanted to play in the Mountain West". Recruits want 2 things....and 2 things only. First, they want play time. Second, they want exposure. As far as playtime goes, wherever they can play in their first two years is a plus. As far as exposure, the Big West will help with ESPN and a rugged out of conference schedule. I see the conference games keeping us highly ranked, and an invitation to the tournament. Whether you play Kansas, Duke, UNC in the 2nd or 3rd round is of no consequence, just playing those teams in the tourney is what its about. To us fans, we are losing out on a couple games with UNLV and New Mexico, but picking up Long Beach and UCSB....in the end, I don't see the move to the Big West being a bad thing. The positives it brings equals the perceived negatives to me.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2012 10:35:20 GMT -8
I really don't think the move to the Big West will hurt that much. Don't start laughing now.....here me out. The MWC is good, but the kids we recruit aren't happy to be playing in the MWC. Never have I heard a recruit say "ever since I was a little kid, I wanted to play in the Mountain West". Recruits want 2 things....and 2 things only. First, they want play time. Second, they want exposure. As far as playtime goes, wherever they can play in their first two years is a plus. As far as exposure, the Big West will help with ESPN and a rugged out of conference schedule. I see the conference games keeping us highly ranked, and an invitation to the tournament. Whether you play Kansas, Duke, UNC in the 2nd or 3rd round is of no consequence, just playing those teams in the tourney is what its about. To us fans, we are losing out on a couple games with UNLV and New Mexico, but picking up Long Beach and UCSB....in the end, I don't see the move to the Big West being a bad thing. The positives it brings equals the perceived negatives to me. I always liked playtime.
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