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Post by sdsuaztecs on Sept 14, 2009 7:38:42 GMT -8
Toledo takes on Purdue, Colorado and Ohio State this year while Fresno State takes on Wisconsin, Illinois and Cincinnati.
Meanwhile SDSU takes on New Mexico State, Idaho and UCLA. I can't get excited about South Utah, Idaho or New Mexico State. How do you get 50,000 in the stands to watch these teams? Answer.....you don't. So, if the goal is to fill the stadium, why not schedule teams that generate some excitement. I would guarantee at least 35k and maybe 40k or more if we play Fresno State. Am I missing something here? Why is Fresno not on the schedule?
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 14, 2009 8:00:20 GMT -8
The only thing you are missing is the fact that S.D.S.U. would get killed this year with Fresno's schedule. We would be lucky to win two or three games. In fact, Fresno may not be able to beat any of the three BCS teams they have scheduled.
If Brady Hoke can pull this program up a notch or two, then in a few years (possibly 3 or 4) we could reasonably schedule two really tough opponents (e.g., UCLA and one other, perhaps a Houston or a Fresno State), a lesser FBS school (e.g., Utah State, UTEP), and one FCS school (e.g., U.C. Davis or Northern Arizona).
First things first. That means winning 5 or 6 this year and 7 next year with a bowl invitation. But even when we are constantly winning more than losing I don't think we should load up on BCS non-conference opponents. (Unless we are constantly beating Utah, BYU, or TCU.) The "Anyone, anywhere, any time" philosophy of Pat Hill isn't working out so well up in Fresno these days.
AzWm
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Post by AlwaysAnAztec on Sept 14, 2009 8:33:50 GMT -8
Agree with AzWm (did I just say that  ) At this point we shouldn't schedule anyone OOC who is going to pound us into the sand. When we are ready to run with the big boys, then schedule them. And then only Home and Home. |
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Post by sdsuaztecs on Sept 14, 2009 8:48:35 GMT -8
You guys know you can't schedule on a moment's notice. That means scheduling at least one or two years ahead. It's time now to schedule Fresno for 2011 or 2012 unless you think we're going to be in the dumpers then too.
P. S - As I recall, Fresno bailed on us a few years ago to take on the Vols so I think they owe us one or two or....
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Post by steveaztec on Sept 14, 2009 9:39:45 GMT -8
Easier said than done, but here would be my model for San Diego State at this point in time...4 OOC games....
-One against anybody. Hopefully at home, but on the road if needed.
-One against a B (S) C team, hopefully mid Pac 10, mid Big 12, mid some bogus B (S) C conf.
-One against a lower D1 school like a New Mexico State/ Idaho/Idaho State.
-One against the weakest damn team I could find that would play us.
With that schedule, if we are even "decent", we should go 2-2. If we are pretty good, we might go 3-1. If we are great 3-1 and a shot at 4-0.
Like I said though, easier said than done. When you schedule ahead of time, you never know where the opponent will be at that time. We have had bad luck in that area.
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Post by sdsuaztecs on Sept 14, 2009 11:06:26 GMT -8
Time to start thinking positive as in "expect to win". Forget about the past. I would schedule two BCS teams; one major team and a lower-level BCS team perhaps an Arizona State and Baylor, then Fresno every year like USC does with Notre Dame and Sacramento State or UC Davis or god forbid Cal Poly or other FCS team that we have some kind of relationship with.
Come to think of it, ASU, Baylor, Fresno State and Cal Poly would make a pretty attractive line-up especially with three of those at home.
I don't like the idea of scheduling just any random FCS team because they are willing to play us. No more Samfords or S. Utah or Southern Illinois or South Bumfork State just to get a "W". That's doesn't cut it in my book. I'd rather play Purdue and lose than South Illinois at home in front of 15,000 fans who could care less.
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 14, 2009 11:32:27 GMT -8
Time to start thinking positive as in "expect to win". Forget about the past. I would schedule two BCS teams; one major team and a lower-level BCS team perhaps an Arizona State and Baylor, then Fresno every year like USC does with Notre Dame and Sacramento State or UC Davis or god forbid Cal Poly or other FCS team that we have some kind of relationship with. Come to think of it, ASU, Baylor, Fresno State and Cal Poly would make a pretty attractive line-up especially with three of those at home. I don't like the idea of scheduling just any random FCS team because they are willing to play us. No more Samfords or S. Utah or Southern Illinois or South Bumfork State just to get a "W". That's doesn't cut it in my book. I'd rather play Purdue and lose than South Illinois at home in front of 15,000 fans who could care less. All aspects of the scheduling question depend on how fast and how much the Aztecs improve. With a couple of games under our belts, I have become somewhat more pessimistic. Therefore, we may not be able to reach a bowl even in 2010. BYU, Utah, and TCU will probably have locks on three bowls. AFA seems capable of doing the same most years. That's four berths we will not get. I think the MWC has a 5th bowl deal; if I'm right, we will be fighting CSU and UNLV for that one. (For the moment, I rule out Wyo and NMU.) Anyway, the long and short of it is that getting to the middle of the pack is no sure thing. Until that happens, we should be careful not to take on too heavy a load in the non-conference part of our schedule. That was one reason Craft did could not produce even one winning season; too many superior teams when we were just beginning to rebuild. Sure, we would like to see Oklahoma State, Oregon, Illinois, and others in the Q. But most of those games would be losses right now, and a team needs to surpass .500 at some point or the already pathetic fan base will decline even further. AzWm |
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Post by aztecx on Sept 14, 2009 12:15:00 GMT -8
Toledo takes on Purdue, Colorado and Ohio State this year while Fresno State takes on Wisconsin, Illinois and Cincinnati. Meanwhile SDSU takes on New Mexico State, Idaho and UCLA. I can't get excited about South Utah, Idaho or New Mexico State. How do you get 50,000 in the stands to watch these teams? Answer.....you don't. So, if the goal is to fill the stadium, why not schedule teams that generate some excitement. I would guarantee at least 35k and maybe 40k or more if we play Fresno State. Am I missing something here? Why is Fresno not on the schedule? The schedule is perfect this year. One BCS, one easy and 2 winable games. Playing too many tough teams can get you beat up and demoralize the team and the fan base. Until we elevate our play, we cannot schedule more than 1 BCS team per year. Start winning our "easy" OCC and have some sucess and then upgarde the schedule. |
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 14, 2009 16:33:43 GMT -8
Take the number of games you expect to win in conference subtract it from 7. That is the number of games you schedule to win OOC.
The Aztecs should win 3 games in conference. So, 7-3 = 4. We should schedule OOC to win all 4 games. That is what CSU did a few years ago and went to the Poinsettia Bowl with a 3-5 record in conference when the Aztecs sat home with a 4-4 record in conference. How did that work for the Aztecs? CSU was seen as having a better year by most.
If the Aztecs could win 5 games in conference. 7-5 = 2. So we would shcedule OOC to get 2 wins. Either 2 very tough games and two easy games or 1 very tough game, 2 challenge games, and one easy game.
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Post by sdsuaztecs on Sept 16, 2009 6:14:00 GMT -8
Glad to see everyone's math is up-to-speed. Scheduling requires an estimate of how good you think your team is going to be when you make up the schedule. I'm betting that by 2011 we're going to be pretty decent and by 2012 we should be pretty good. If we're not, what in the hell are we doing here? So with that in mind, let's schedule according to that estimate. No reason not to have Fresno on the schedule in 2011 and from then on every year. For some reason, San Jose State just does not excite me. I'd much rather play Fresno. I'm betting our fans would show up to see Fresno as well, not to mention the Fresno fans which would probably mean at least 40k and maybe 50k for the game depending on how good we are. Why is the administration so opposed to putting 40k or 50k in the stands by scheduling Fresno? And based on Fresno's future schedules, it looks like we might have an opening.... www.nationalchamps.net/NCAA/future_schedules/fresnostate_future.htm |
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) At this point we shouldn't schedule anyone OOC who is going to pound us into the sand. When we are ready to run with the big boys, then schedule them. And then only Home and Home.