Post by AztecWilliam on Aug 3, 2010 12:46:51 GMT -8
Quite possibly very, very badly. Nothing is certain, of course, but an absolute slaughter is a bit more likely than not.
What would a slaughter look like? Here is my sliding scale. . .
[2] GOP net gain of 20-29 seats. = Democrats still pretty upbeat, so much so that (assuming a Dem. Senate) they will feel free to push for more leftist measures in Congress. GOP would try to make the best of it, but the facts would still indicate an advantage of at least 17 seats for Democrats. The Dems would have much less room to maneuver, but that's still a lot better than being even 4 or 5 seats short.
[3] GOP net gain of 30-39 seats. = At 30 net gain the Dems would still have a modestly big advantage in the House. At 37 or 38, the Dems would still control, but the GOP, with the help of just a few conservative Dems (especially those who just barely held their seats) could make things tough for the Prez. This range, especially pickup in the mid 30s or better, is the minimum that would allow the GOP to feel somewhat confident going into 2012. The trouble is, even with a net gain of 35-39 seats, Nancy Pelosi stays in power. Remember, in politics, close may not be enough to enable a party to build momentum. This isn't horseshoes.
[4] GOP net gain of 40-45. = A huge victory for Republicans. Obama would be stopped in his tracks, though on some issues just a few turncoat Republicans could give Obama some legislative victories. And, perhaps best of all, Nancy Pelosi would have to give up the gavel.
[5] GOP net gain of 46-55. Unmistakable repudiation of the Obama agenda and of Leftism in general. Would Obama be able to pull a Clinton and move to the center?
[6] GOP net gain of 56- ? 75? 80?. Monster blowout that could come close to putting the nail in the Dem. coalition's coffin. The Left might very well start looking for a Gene McCarthy, George McGovern, or even a Ralph Nader. Such a tidal wave would never happen unless most of the country was disgusted by and fed up with the "progressives'" attempt to vastly increase the power of government and diminish the freedoms of the average citizen. We are not at that point yet, but moving in that direction. How far public opinion moves between now and Nov. is the question.
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My best guess; the Democrats are going to lose seats in both Houses of Congress. In the Senate, I think the GOP will end up with 44 to 48 seats, with 45 or 46 most likely. With 44 or more seats, the GOP will not be at the mercy of a single Senator might want to sell his anti-filibuster vote for special favors. Obama's agenda is dead with 44 or more Republican Senators. One wonders whether Obama might, in that case, seriously consider compromise legislation. (Long pause while AztecWilliam strokes his chin and ponders this possibility . . . . . . . . . . . ) Nah, no way!
In the House, the GOP needs to deliver a knockout blow, and only 40 or more seats picked up will do that. Preferably, the GOP needs to pick up close to 50 seats net. In any case, the Republicans need to regain control to keep their momentum going for 2012. Anything less will be seen as a disappointment.
How about a pickup of about 35 seats? This would be a decidedly unappealing consolation prize. Fewer than a net gain of 30 seats would representing a psychological win for Obama and a derailing of the GOP comeback. (If there is one. We won't know until November.)
Here is another question. Might it not be better for the Republicans to win the House but fall just 3 or 4 seats short in the Senate? If the GOP controls both houses, Obama will take a page from Truman's 1948 playbook. Harry pilloried the GOP by running against what he called the "do-nothing" Republican-contorolled 80th Congress. The charge was false, of course, but it worked for Harry!
Here is a careful analysis of the data available as of this date . . . .
www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/08/03/are_things_getting_worse_for_house_democrats.html
AzWm
What would a slaughter look like? Here is my sliding scale. . .
[2] GOP net gain of 20-29 seats. = Democrats still pretty upbeat, so much so that (assuming a Dem. Senate) they will feel free to push for more leftist measures in Congress. GOP would try to make the best of it, but the facts would still indicate an advantage of at least 17 seats for Democrats. The Dems would have much less room to maneuver, but that's still a lot better than being even 4 or 5 seats short.
[3] GOP net gain of 30-39 seats. = At 30 net gain the Dems would still have a modestly big advantage in the House. At 37 or 38, the Dems would still control, but the GOP, with the help of just a few conservative Dems (especially those who just barely held their seats) could make things tough for the Prez. This range, especially pickup in the mid 30s or better, is the minimum that would allow the GOP to feel somewhat confident going into 2012. The trouble is, even with a net gain of 35-39 seats, Nancy Pelosi stays in power. Remember, in politics, close may not be enough to enable a party to build momentum. This isn't horseshoes.
[4] GOP net gain of 40-45. = A huge victory for Republicans. Obama would be stopped in his tracks, though on some issues just a few turncoat Republicans could give Obama some legislative victories. And, perhaps best of all, Nancy Pelosi would have to give up the gavel.
[5] GOP net gain of 46-55. Unmistakable repudiation of the Obama agenda and of Leftism in general. Would Obama be able to pull a Clinton and move to the center?
[6] GOP net gain of 56- ? 75? 80?. Monster blowout that could come close to putting the nail in the Dem. coalition's coffin. The Left might very well start looking for a Gene McCarthy, George McGovern, or even a Ralph Nader. Such a tidal wave would never happen unless most of the country was disgusted by and fed up with the "progressives'" attempt to vastly increase the power of government and diminish the freedoms of the average citizen. We are not at that point yet, but moving in that direction. How far public opinion moves between now and Nov. is the question.
[/ul]
My best guess; the Democrats are going to lose seats in both Houses of Congress. In the Senate, I think the GOP will end up with 44 to 48 seats, with 45 or 46 most likely. With 44 or more seats, the GOP will not be at the mercy of a single Senator might want to sell his anti-filibuster vote for special favors. Obama's agenda is dead with 44 or more Republican Senators. One wonders whether Obama might, in that case, seriously consider compromise legislation. (Long pause while AztecWilliam strokes his chin and ponders this possibility . . . . . . . . . . . ) Nah, no way!
In the House, the GOP needs to deliver a knockout blow, and only 40 or more seats picked up will do that. Preferably, the GOP needs to pick up close to 50 seats net. In any case, the Republicans need to regain control to keep their momentum going for 2012. Anything less will be seen as a disappointment.
How about a pickup of about 35 seats? This would be a decidedly unappealing consolation prize. Fewer than a net gain of 30 seats would representing a psychological win for Obama and a derailing of the GOP comeback. (If there is one. We won't know until November.)
Here is another question. Might it not be better for the Republicans to win the House but fall just 3 or 4 seats short in the Senate? If the GOP controls both houses, Obama will take a page from Truman's 1948 playbook. Harry pilloried the GOP by running against what he called the "do-nothing" Republican-contorolled 80th Congress. The charge was false, of course, but it worked for Harry!
Here is a careful analysis of the data available as of this date . . . .
www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/08/03/are_things_getting_worse_for_house_democrats.html
AzWm
