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Post by 1611Luginbill on Jun 2, 2011 14:43:08 GMT -8
Will this go down to the deadline or do you all think a deal will be struck sooner?
I'm assuming Mike Adams is a shoo in for the closers spot right?
Who else on the Padres has a good chance of being traded?
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Post by aztecbruce on Jun 2, 2011 14:49:00 GMT -8
Article online yesterday said the Cards and others have asked about Bell.
It all depends on how the Pads do the next couple months I suspect. If they climb back in the race then they keep most everybody and try to bulk up.
If not, I suspect they'd try to trade Ludwick, Hawpe (sp?), Patterson, and any other vet who another team feels could add value to their club.
I like Adams as a potential closer.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2011 16:29:53 GMT -8
Trade him ASAP. his value will never be higher and we have someone who can fill the role no problem.
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 3, 2011 9:06:11 GMT -8
Trading Bell
Like any trade question it comes down to who we get. I suspect we could get a better return than the value of Bell. Not because I don't think Bell is a very good closer. He is in fact one of, if not the, best in the game. We would get better value in return because closer's value is generally overrated by baseball. Bell will be a free agent next year. He will be a class "A" free agent. That means if the Padres don't resign him, they will get a first round pick and a sandwich draft pick for him. We have to get a somewhat better return in trade than the value of those two draft picks.
Replacing Bell
I don't think we will or should move Adams into the closer role. We should move Qualls into the closers role with an eye toward trading him too. We signed Qualls to a two year contract.
2011 $1.5 Million
2012 $6.0 Million Club Option with a $1.05 Million buyout.
If we trade him (for example) on Aug 1, we save $0.5 million in salary this year and $1.05 million buyout for next year. We save $1.55 million but give up one or two high draft picks next year when he is allowed to go free agent.
We should be able to get some really good prospects with a trade. Qualls has experience as a closer and is having a good comeback year.
Timing
We could trade Qualls without trading Bell but if we trade Bell and want to trade Qualls, I think we will trade Bell in early July to give Qualls some save opportunities as a showcase.
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Post by aztecron on Jun 3, 2011 12:21:32 GMT -8
Trading BellLike any trade question it comes down to who we get. I suspect we could get a better return than the value of Bell. Not because I don't think Bell is a very good closer. He is in fact one of, if not the, best in the game. We would get better value in return because closer's value is generally overrated by baseball. Bell will be a free agent next year. He will be a class "A" free agent. That means if the Padres don't resign him, they will get a first round pick and a sandwich draft pick for him. We have to get a somewhat better return in trade than the value of those two draft picks. Replacing BellI don't think we will or should move Adams into the closer role. We should move Qualls into the closers role with an eye toward trading him too. We signed Qualls to a two year contract. 2011 $1.5 Million 2012 $6.0 Million Club Option with a $1.05 Million buyout. If we trade him (for example) on Aug 1, we save $0.5 million in salary this year and $1.05 million buyout for next year. We save $1.55 million but give up one or two high draft picks next year when he is allowed to go free agent. We should be able to get some really good prospects with a trade. Qualls has experience as a closer and is having a good comeback year. TimingWe could trade Qualls without trading Bell but if we trade Bell and want to trade Qualls, I think we will trade Bell in early July to give Qualls some save opportunities as a showcase. I get your point, but, no way in heck do the Padres put Qualls before Adams in the closer role. No way. He's already "showcased" himself to the tune of a 2.16 ERA as of last night. He's proven last year was an anomaly. Bud and Jed won't put anyone in front of Adams as the closer other than Bell, naturally. If they do, they'll lose Adams and I'm pretty sure they know that. |
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Post by aztecbruce on Jun 3, 2011 14:45:30 GMT -8
Trading BellLike any trade question it comes down to who we get. I suspect we could get a better return than the value of Bell. Not because I don't think Bell is a very good closer. He is in fact one of, if not the, best in the game. We would get better value in return because closer's value is generally overrated by baseball. Bell will be a free agent next year. He will be a class "A" free agent. That means if the Padres don't resign him, they will get a first round pick and a sandwich draft pick for him. We have to get a somewhat better return in trade than the value of those two draft picks. Replacing BellI don't think we will or should move Adams into the closer role. We should move Qualls into the closers role with an eye toward trading him too. We signed Qualls to a two year contract. 2011 $1.5 Million 2012 $6.0 Million Club Option with a $1.05 Million buyout. If we trade him (for example) on Aug 1, we save $0.5 million in salary this year and $1.05 million buyout for next year. We save $1.55 million but give up one or two high draft picks next year when he is allowed to go free agent. We should be able to get some really good prospects with a trade. Qualls has experience as a closer and is having a good comeback year. TimingWe could trade Qualls without trading Bell but if we trade Bell and want to trade Qualls, I think we will trade Bell in early July to give Qualls some save opportunities as a showcase. What? Put Qualls as the closer? Are you freakin nuts? Only if the team is 20 out and dead in the water. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 3, 2011 15:02:31 GMT -8
I get your point, but, no way in heck do the Padres put Qualls before Adams in the closer role. No way. He's already "showcased" himself to the tune of a 2.16 ERA as of last night. He's proven last year was an anomaly. Bud and Jed won't put anyone in front of Adams as the closer other than Bell, naturally. If they do, they'll lose Adams and I'm pretty sure they know that. They won't "lose" Adams. The Padres only need to exercise a very fundamental aspect of leadership. "Mike, we have traded Heath Bell and we would like you to be our closer. But for the next month or so we are going to move Qualls into that role. We think by showcasing him in the closers role we will be able to get a better return when we trade him. After Qualls is traded and next year as you prepare for your last year before free agency, we would like you to be our closer. We think you are doing a great job." 2011 stats Player ERA WHIPQualls 2.08 0.96 Adams 1.46 0.73 Qualls has pitched great this year. But getting his feet wet, in the closers role, before a trade, would make him more attractive to potential suiters. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 3, 2011 15:10:08 GMT -8
What? Put Qualls as the closer? Are you freakin nuts? Only if the team is 20 out and dead in the water. Your second question is the answer to your first question and the other two answers are yes and no. This is only an issue if we trade Bell and that won't happen until we are in fact, "dead in the water". |
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Post by aztecron on Jun 5, 2011 8:12:11 GMT -8
I get your point, but, no way in heck do the Padres put Qualls before Adams in the closer role. No way. He's already "showcased" himself to the tune of a 2.16 ERA as of last night. He's proven last year was an anomaly. Bud and Jed won't put anyone in front of Adams as the closer other than Bell, naturally. If they do, they'll lose Adams and I'm pretty sure they know that. They won't "lose" Adams. The Padres only need to exercise a very fundamental aspect of leadership. "Mike, we have traded Heath Bell and we would like you to be our closer. But for the next month or so we are going to move Qualls into that role. We think by showcasing him in the closers role we will be able to get a better return when we trade him. After Qualls is traded and next year as you prepare for your last year before free agency, we would like you to be our closer. We think you are doing a great job." 2011 stats Player ERA WHIPQualls 2.08 0.96 Adams 1.46 0.73 Qualls has pitched great this year. But getting his feet wet, in the closers role, before a trade, would make him more attractive to potential suiters. Never happen, Bill. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 6, 2011 8:44:22 GMT -8
We agree. Bell will not get traded because the Padres will get back into the race. |
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Post by aztecron on Jun 6, 2011 10:21:50 GMT -8
We agree. Bell will not get traded because the Padres will get back into the race. I'm sure you're trolling with the above statement. As I'm sure you know I meant Qualls will never be put in front of Adams as closer for the sake of "showing him off." Now, if Bell is gone and Adams needs an off day, then I'm sure Qualls could fill in for him. The Pad's aren't going to change the hierarchy of the pen and don't need to. GM's can see what Qualls has done this year and take from his stats whether he's back or not. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 6, 2011 11:20:38 GMT -8
We agree. Bell will not get traded because the Padres will get back into the race. I'm sure you're trolling with the above statement. As I'm sure you know I meant Qualls will never be put in front of Adams as closer for the sake of "showing him off." Now, if Bell is gone and Adams needs an off day, then I'm sure Qualls could fill in for him. The Pad's aren't going to change the hierarchy of the pen and don't need to. GM's can see what Qualls has done this year and take from his stats whether he's back or not. If Hoyer has that much faith in other managers than you are correct. I am not so sure he does. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2011 13:58:54 GMT -8
Bill makes some valid points in his post, but I still assume Adams closes, when Bell is traded.
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 6, 2011 14:15:17 GMT -8
Bill makes some valid points in his post, but I still assume Adams closes, when Bell is traded. It is still "IF". The Padres are only 6.5 games out. A movement of just a few games places them well within the range of "contending". |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2011 14:47:30 GMT -8
Bill makes some valid points in his post, but I still assume Adams closes, when Bell is traded. It is still "IF". The Padres are only 6.5 games out. A movement of just a few games places them well within the range of "contending". True, but it's not just a matter of contention. The Padres need pieces, especially on offense, and the bullpen is a position of strength, even w/ out Bill. Gregerson, Adams, Qualls, and Frieri are all viable 'pen arms. If a team with a weak 'pen makes an offer that Hoyer feels improves the club long term, I expect Bell is gone by July. If not, he stays. I am still betting he's gone. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 7, 2011 8:00:18 GMT -8
It is still "IF". The Padres are only 6.5 games out. A movement of just a few games places them well within the range of "contending". True, but it's not just a matter of contention. The Padres need pieces, especially on offense, and the bullpen is a position of strength, even w/ out Bill. Gregerson, Adams, Qualls, and Frieri are all viable 'pen arms. If a team with a weak 'pen makes an offer that Hoyer feels improves the club long term, I expect Bell is gone by July. If not, he stays. I am still betting he's gone. The Padres within a week will have: 2. Hundley 3. Rizzo 4. Hudson 5. Headley 6. Barlett 7. Ludwick 8. Maybin 9. Hawpe With Denorfia and Cantu available for pinch hitting and platooning. That is a solid lineup. Who would you try to upgrade with a trade of Bell? Bell, if traded, will be traded for Prospects not for MLB ready talent. |
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Post by jonnyaztec94 on Jun 18, 2011 17:41:53 GMT -8
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 22, 2011 14:55:16 GMT -8
If we don't trade Bell, he will be a type "A" free agent. That means we get the first round draft pick from the signing team and a sandwich pick. So whatever we get in exchange must be worth more than two top draft picks.
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Post by untitled on Jun 22, 2011 16:46:38 GMT -8
With this regime? I think they let him walk, collect the picks, and draft an 'impact, high upside' pick. Not disparaging the notion, just what I think'll happen because they believe their scouting department is as good as there is in baseball.
Trade Ludwick, he's still got decent value and he's not going to be part of the team's long term plans at age 32.
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Post by AztecBill on Jun 22, 2011 17:04:25 GMT -8
With this regime? I think they let him walk, collect the picks, and draft an 'impact, high upside' pick. Not disparaging the notion, just what I think'll happen because they believe their scouting department is as good as there is in baseball. Trade Ludwick, he's still got decent value and he's not going to be part of the team's long term plans at age 32. We will get two draft picks for Bell walking. The problem with that is the Padres must offer arbitration to Bell to make the picks happen. If the Padres offered Bell arbitration, he might just accept it.  Many have accused Towers of offering arbitration with a pre-arranged deal for the players to not accept. Management: "So Bell, If we offer you arbitration, would you accept it?" Bell: "Why don't you and find out?" |
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Many have accused Towers of offering arbitration with a pre-arranged deal for the players to not accept.