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Post by AztecWilliam on May 15, 2011 17:40:55 GMT -8
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Post by AlwaysAnAztec on May 16, 2011 9:56:28 GMT -8
I would have to agree with the author. But.. Neither candidate can win without the independent vote. A couple of key statements from the article. These voters are best described as quintessential suburbanites - more moderate and less ideological in their views, more liberal on social issues but more conservative on fiscal matters. and Still, this election will first and foremost be a referendum on the president. If Republicans nominate a candidate who isn't viewed as "out of the mainstream," Obama will face a significant challenge in recovering ground with Pennsylvania's independent voters. Herein lies the problem for the Republicans. In order to get nominated, the candidate must espouse views on social issues that are so far out of the mainstream that there is no way that they will get the independent vote. |
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Post by aztecwin on May 16, 2011 13:22:57 GMT -8
If gas is still near $4 and unemployment is over 8%, Obama is toast with Independents.
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Post by Bob Forsythe on May 17, 2011 18:49:47 GMT -8
Will, are you ever capable of offering an opinion of your own, based upon your own research? =Bob |
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Post by Yoda on May 17, 2011 20:12:23 GMT -8
Again, I didn't follow the link. But I did wish to make two points...
First, half of William's threads of late are focused on defeating Obama -- or scenarios under which Obama might not win. It's kind of sad, given that the election is still a year and a half away, nobody knows who is running, what the economy will do or any of a number of things that will impact the outcome. My advice, William -- get a girlfriend. Or if you already have a wife, then devote the next year to reintroducing yourself to her and to doting on her.
Second, every election is a battle for the moderates. Pretty much 25% of the people will oppose you no matter what, 25% of the people will support you no matter what and it is the middle 50% who will determine the outcome.
IMHO, the Democrats became complacent and lost touch with the people -- and lost the moderates in 2010 as a result. The Tea Party helped the Republicans take control of the House and a lot of statehouses. The problem is, the Tea Partiers don't really like many of the centrists that they helped elect so, in 2012, they are targeting Republicans who aren't extreme enough.
In my view, the Republicans are going to have a very difficult time holding on to their gains in 2012. In order to get the nomination, many incumbent Republicans are going to have to reposition themselves so far right that they no longer appeal to the center.
This far out, my opinion isn't any better grounded than William's is. The statement that "The election is still a year and a half away, nobody knows who is running, what the economy will do or any of a number of things that will impact the outcome" applies just as much to me as it does to him. The differences? I'm not obsessing on it like he is. And if I suddenly started dotting on my wife, she'd figure I was cheating on her.
Yoda out...
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2011 21:07:49 GMT -8
I would have to agree with the author. But.. Neither candidate can win without the independent vote. A couple of key statements from the article. These voters are best described as quintessential suburbanites - more moderate and less ideological in their views, more liberal on social issues but more conservative on fiscal matters. and Still, this election will first and foremost be a referendum on the president. If Republicans nominate a candidate who isn't viewed as "out of the mainstream," Obama will face a significant challenge in recovering ground with Pennsylvania's independent voters. Herein lies the problem for the Republicans. In order to get nominated, the candidate must espouse views on social issues that are so far out of the mainstream that there is no way that they will get the independent vote. Republicans just kicked the living crap out of the dems in the last national election. The reason for that ass kicking was/is the Democrats legislating so far out of the "mainstream" that they lost virtually every moderate demographic. The question isn't what Republicans need to do to be considered "mainstream", they've already done that by committing to an agenda that espouses fiscal sanity at all levels of government. The question is what are the democrats going to do to convince "mainstream" Americans that they won't destroy the country if handed the reins for another 4 years. Right now, people are in no mood to return an administration that is at BEST ambivalent to their concerns. If you don't think 4 dollar gas and 2 dollar lettuce and a rapacious government trying everything they can to pick the pockets of its citizens in order to preserve itself instead of acting in the interest of the citizenry aren't major issues, your just not paying attention. Barry knows he's in trouble. Why else would he announce his new "drill baby drill" policy? The terms of the debate have changed and the Democrats are still using out dated talking points. Yoda's right, it's too far out to predict anything but you can bet your bottom dollar that Barry and his merry band of lefty kooks know what time it is. It's time to start acting Republican. |
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Post by AztecWilliam on May 17, 2011 22:14:08 GMT -8
My "own research"? Right. Like I'm a full-time political expert. Look, Charles Krauthammer gets paid for what he does, I don't! Bob, one way to do "research" is to read what well-informed observers have to say on a given topic. Since I am unable to wander around Pennsylvania chatting with voters, reading pieces such as this one gives me insight into the political situation in that critical state. The reason that I started this thread (and similar ones, as well) is that I believed that other AztecMesa regulars would also find this information interesting. I make no bones about hoping that Obama is defeated next year. However, pieces such as this one are pretty technical in nature rather than partisan. The author is not making a case for Obama's defeat. He is simply pointing out some facts regarding the President's chances to win in this important state. Therefore, the article should be of interest to anyone who is closely following the pre-election goings-on. AzWm PS: As for getting a girlfriend, I am really much too busy dealing with a wife to even consider that. Plus, at my age I don't think I would attract too much interest on the open market.  |
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Post by aztec70 on May 18, 2011 8:40:18 GMT -8
Predicting election results this far out is fraught with peril. People do make a fine living doing so, though. Funny, huh?
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