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Post by RiffelBooks on Jun 10, 2010 17:16:37 GMT -8
Like the rest of you, I'm concerned about the future of SDSU athletics, particularly football, in regards to the conference realignment currently underway. I saw something on the Internet today with five new leagues in which the MWC expands but does not include SDSU. Made no sense at all, but the fact that the reporter who came up with it forgot about us is worrying.
SDSU has two saving graces, in my opinion. One is big, another is small but might get us over the hump.
This whole thing is being driven by television dollars. Sure, the Big Ten commish might have evil plans, but the reason why everyone is going along with him is to get a bigger slice of TV bucks. SDSU's big advantage is the television market, which is the 28th largest in the nation. Other markets of note in the current situation, like Salt Lake City, Vegas, and Kansas City, are all smaller than San Diego's. We also have clear market size advantages over Colorado Springs, Fort Collins and Laramie.
Now you know and I know that your average U$C game will draw a bigger local TV rating than almost any SDSU game, but I don't know how many others know that.
The smaller one is Steve Fisher/men's basketball. We look pretty strong there. Again, we're talking TV $$$ and football, but if some conference expansion comes down to us or Wyoming or CSU, we're going to win because of that secondary factor.
As I see it, we have two X-factors.
1. Missouri - The Tigers reportedly have not been offered to join the Big Ten. If that is wrong and they bail like Colorado did, then all efforts to hold the Big 12 together go down the drain.
2. Texas Power Politics - A non-issue if Texas, A&M and Tech all join the Pac-10. A big issue if Texas opts for the SEC or Big Ten, possibilities which only arose in seriousness today. Instead of dipping deeply into the MWC, they would grab TCU, BYU and Utah only and fill out their ranks by raiding C-USA of fellow Texas schools Rice, SMU and Houston. That leaves the Texas politicians happy and the MWC eviscerated. This is my biggest worry by far.
I really hope Thompson has the authority to move quickly for the MWC's sake. If I'm him, the minute Nebraska announces tomorrow, I'm making offers to KU, K-State and Boise. If nothing else, we need to keep the thoughts of the Big 12 schools pointed west.
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Post by bigdog41 on Jun 10, 2010 18:31:36 GMT -8
FYI, despite what you read from some of these websites that rank the size of TV markets, San Diego is not the 28th largest market. As I have explained in the past Denver is the supposed 16th largest tv market but Denver has a population of only 600K vs, 1,260 K for San Diego with San Diego being the 8th largest city in the USA. Yet Denver has a TV market with the supposed size of 1.5 million versus just 1.1 million for San Diego. San Diego MSA is 17th in the USA with 3 million people and Denver is 21st with 2.5 million. This is the more valid comparison. San Diego is a top 20 market at the very least. Like the rest of you, I'm concerned about the future of SDSU athletics, particularly football, in regards to the conference realignment currently underway. I saw something on the Internet today with five new leagues in which the MWC expands but does not include SDSU. Made no sense at all, but the fact that the reporter who came up with it forgot about us is worrying. SDSU has two saving graces, in my opinion. One is big, another is small but might get us over the hump. This whole thing is being driven by television dollars. Sure, the Big Ten commish might have evil plans, but the reason why everyone is going along with him is to get a bigger slice of TV bucks. SDSU's big advantage is the television market, which is the 28th largest in the nation. Other markets of note in the current situation, like Salt Lake City, Vegas, and Kansas City, are all smaller than San Diego's. We also have clear market size advantages over Colorado Springs, Fort Collins and Laramie. Now you know and I know that your average U$C game will draw a bigger local TV rating than almost any SDSU game, but I don't know how many others know that. The smaller one is Steve Fisher/men's basketball. We look pretty strong there. Again, we're talking TV $$$ and football, but if some conference expansion comes down to us or Wyoming or CSU, we're going to win because of that secondary factor. As I see it, we have two X-factors. 1. Missouri - The Tigers reportedly have not been offered to join the Big Ten. If that is wrong and they bail like Colorado did, then all efforts to hold the Big 12 together go down the drain. 2. Texas Power Politics - A non-issue if Texas, A&M and Tech all join the Pac-10. A big issue if Texas opts for the SEC or Big Ten, possibilities which only arose in seriousness today. Instead of dipping deeply into the MWC, they would grab TCU, BYU and Utah only and fill out their ranks by raiding C-USA of fellow Texas schools Rice, SMU and Houston. That leaves the Texas politicians happy and the MWC eviscerated. This is my biggest worry by far. I really hope Thompson has the authority to move quickly for the MWC's sake. If I'm him, the minute Nebraska announces tomorrow, I'm making offers to KU, K-State and Boise. If nothing else, we need to keep the thoughts of the Big 12 schools pointed west. |
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Post by bigdog41 on Jun 10, 2010 18:44:10 GMT -8
BTW, I also forgot to say, why would what is left of the Big12 want to take small market teams like BYU, Utah, and TCU? It does not enhance the revenues for the conference. That is why the PAC10 isn't so big on the Utah. They will not add small market teams if it is not financially advantageous and I doubt these markets are of much value. PAC10 might still go after Utah if the BIG12 teams they are after don't sign on but it won't be because they love Utah it might be just to reach 12 teams so they can have 2 divisions. Like the rest of you, I'm concerned about the future of SDSU athletics, particularly football, in regards to the conference realignment currently underway. I saw something on the Internet today with five new leagues in which the MWC expands but does not include SDSU. Made no sense at all, but the fact that the reporter who came up with it forgot about us is worrying. SDSU has two saving graces, in my opinion. One is big, another is small but might get us over the hump. This whole thing is being driven by television dollars. Sure, the Big Ten commish might have evil plans, but the reason why everyone is going along with him is to get a bigger slice of TV bucks. SDSU's big advantage is the television market, which is the 28th largest in the nation. Other markets of note in the current situation, like Salt Lake City, Vegas, and Kansas City, are all smaller than San Diego's. We also have clear market size advantages over Colorado Springs, Fort Collins and Laramie. Now you know and I know that your average U$C game will draw a bigger local TV rating than almost any SDSU game, but I don't know how many others know that. The smaller one is Steve Fisher/men's basketball. We look pretty strong there. Again, we're talking TV $$$ and football, but if some conference expansion comes down to us or Wyoming or CSU, we're going to win because of that secondary factor. As I see it, we have two X-factors. 1. Missouri - The Tigers reportedly have not been offered to join the Big Ten. If that is wrong and they bail like Colorado did, then all efforts to hold the Big 12 together go down the drain. 2. Texas Power Politics - A non-issue if Texas, A&M and Tech all join the Pac-10. A big issue if Texas opts for the SEC or Big Ten, possibilities which only arose in seriousness today. Instead of dipping deeply into the MWC, they would grab TCU, BYU and Utah only and fill out their ranks by raiding C-USA of fellow Texas schools Rice, SMU and Houston. That leaves the Texas politicians happy and the MWC eviscerated. This is my biggest worry by far. I really hope Thompson has the authority to move quickly for the MWC's sake. If I'm him, the minute Nebraska announces tomorrow, I'm making offers to KU, K-State and Boise. If nothing else, we need to keep the thoughts of the Big 12 schools pointed west. |
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Post by RiffelBooks on Jun 10, 2010 18:53:17 GMT -8
Big Dog, the suburbs around Denver are pretty large, like ours, and the stations really cover most of the state, unlike ours. Point is well-taken, and you validates my point that our market size might save us if things start going badly. Ultimately, it's going to be the amount of cable households.
Why the Big 12 likes BYU. Their market is national, maybe international. It's not just SLC and Provo, it's Mormons everywhere, including San Diego. Utah? Well, BYU needs a rival and they are frankly a lot of fun to watch. TCU works because the Dallas-Fort Worth market is so huge. I mean, the only college sports there anyone cares about is UT. The local media coverage of TCU was pathetic until the middle of last year. Yet, the market is so large that if you're only counting the number of cable TV subscribers, they deliver.
Together, Utah and TCU also help a reformulated Big 12 to keep their BCS auto bid.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2010 18:59:53 GMT -8
we also reside in fertile recruiting grounds
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2010 19:02:28 GMT -8
we won't be kicked out of an expanded MWC. If some of our heavies get plucked by the Big XII, we might get left behind to reform the MWC or merge with the WAC, but I don't see that happening either. I think the Big XII is finished, and the MWC will have the opportunity to add from whats left and Boise to the league- one that includes SDSU.
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Post by RiffelBooks on Jun 10, 2010 19:12:51 GMT -8
I read somewhere, and I thought it was on this board somewhere but now I can't find it, that the five other Big 12 schools were set to go to the Pac-10 Friday as soon as Nebraska announces itself to the Big Ten.
That leaves KU, KSU, ISU, Mo and Baylor. That's why I think Missouri is the linchpin. They're still viable with those schools and an auto bid. Get BYU, Utah and TCU and they're at eight and can grow or not as they see fit.
I'm not sure our teams would join them, but the auto bid would be hard to turn down.
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Post by aztecfankrishnan on Jun 10, 2010 20:24:24 GMT -8
Listen the fate of Aztec football is in all our hands. Fill up the stadium and our options are endless. Keep losing with an apathetic fan base and back to the WAC. It's really as simple as that! We got to get asses in the seats! Now not later. We don't have time for a 5 year plan. It's not fair, but Hoke and the boys need to win this year and we need 30,000+ at the games. However, a league with Boise St, Fresno St and various WAC and MWC left-overs isn't all that bad. Our hoops team is still going to make noise year in and year out regardless.
Our fertile recruting is actually a negative in all this. You can bet all the Pac 10 teams that recruit this area want to chop Hoke off at the knees. They see what he is building and don't like it and will do everything they can to stop it.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2010 20:29:19 GMT -8
That ship has sailed. This is all going to go down within 3 weeks. We'll know our fate by then. We got to get asses in the seats! Now not later. |
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Post by RiffelBooks on Jun 10, 2010 20:37:05 GMT -8
Not necessarily. There's been a lot of lip service about the state of college football with the BCS in recent years but no one has really done anything. I think that changes this time, with action by politicians and, especially, lawsuits. More so if they coalesce around 48 teams. I'd say the chances are at least 50-50 that what's being decided right now will unravel within five years. That ship has sailed. This is all going to go down within 3 weeks. We'll know our fate by then. We got to get asses in the seats! Now not later. |
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Post by aztecfankrishnan on Jun 10, 2010 20:44:22 GMT -8
Not to mention a good showing this year give us leverage going into whatever scenario plays out. Not ALL of this will play out in 3 weeks. Just the big conferences. With contracts in flux changes can certainly be made sometime during the year. Not necessarily. There's been a lot of lip service about the state of college football with the BCS in recent years but no one has really done anything. I think that changes this time, with action by politicians and, especially, lawsuits. More so if they coalesce around 48 teams. I'd say the chances are at least 50-50 that what's being decided right now will unravel within five years. That ship has sailed. This is all going to go down within 3 weeks. We'll know our fate by then. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2010 15:54:08 GMT -8
which the MWC may be one of when the smoke clears Not to mention a good showing this year give us leverage going into whatever scenario plays out. Not ALL of this will play out in 3 weeks. Just the big conferences. |
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Post by Fishn'Aztec on Jun 11, 2010 16:04:22 GMT -8
I imagine the AZTECS soccer squad gets booted out of the pacfudge10-16 now??
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Post by RiffelBooks on Jun 11, 2010 17:19:54 GMT -8
Good point. I mean bad point. I imagine the AZTECS soccer squad gets booted out of the pacfudge10-16 now?? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2010 17:53:06 GMT -8
Like the rest of you, I'm concerned about the future of SDSU athletics, particularly football, in regards to the conference realignment currently underway. I saw something on the Internet today with five new leagues in which the MWC expands but does not include SDSU. You don't provide a link and until you do, I'm operating under the assumption it was just some internet message board like this since not only have I not read any internet newspaper columnist so speculate, I haven't even read a blogger so speculate. (BTW, I have such little regard for the BleacherReport that I never read it. If that's where you got it, don't worry. Those yahoos know less about this than I do, Monty does and several others here do.) Let me assuage your fears. The way things have played out this week, the only chance of SDSU being left behind by the Big 3 is in the very unlikely event the five Big 12 leftovers can entice them to join an entirely new conference and I think that's never going to happen for several reasons. 1. It's apparent to me that BYU knows the MWC is its conference so the Borg isn't leaving for anything that isn't head and shoulders better. 2. Although Mizzou and the Kansas schools are a very good threesome, ISU is a dud and Baylor is a viscous turd. Therefore, Mizzou, KU and KSU would have to find somebody else out there to sweeten the pot. Some TCU fans suggested ECU, Southern Miss, Houston and Memphis. However, other than ECU, none had impressive attendance last year, ECU and USM bring zero TVs and Houston and Memphis don't control their markets. 3. I'm convinced Mizzou, KU, KSU and ISU are going to be offered by the Big East, which would then go to 12 assuming Rutgers isn't offered by the Big Ten (I'd put that at just 50-50 now) so the Big East can hold a conference football championship game. That would moot the entire argument right there. Listen, at the beginning of the week, I think there was a lot for Aztecs to be worried about and it pissed me off a bit how few people seemed to get that or care. However, things have been breaking our way so far. Things to look for by Tuesday: 1. Absolute confirmation that UT, TT, OU and Okie State are Pac bound and confirmation that aTm isn't going to the SEC but also to the Pac. On those bases, we will pretty much know Utah is staying. 2. Continued momentum toward Mizzou, KU, KSU and ISU going to the Big East. On that basis, we can be reasonably sure the kind of new league you've referred to isn't going to happen. Just because the MWC won't get the Big 12 leftovers now doesn't mean the MWC won't get them later when the next dominoes begin to fall with SEC expansion. A couple weeks ago, that looked imminent. Now if aTm doesn't come, it doesn't appear it will happen for a year at least. And BTW, there's speculation that in the unlikely event aTm DOES go to the SEC that the SEC will also take Mizzou. If that were to happen, the upside is definitely no new conference since the other three could never pull it off. However, it could also mean that Utah would go to the Pac to replace aTm. Stay tuned. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2010 18:44:24 GMT -8
as usual, nailed it You don't provide a link and until you do, I'm operating under the assumption it was just some internet message board like this since not only have I not read any internet newspaper columnist so speculate, I haven't even read a blogger so speculate. (BTW, I have such little regard for the BleacherReport that I never read it. If that's where you got it, don't worry. Those yahoos know less about this than I do, Monty does and several others here do.) Let me assuage your fears. The way things have played out this week, the only chance of SDSU being left behind by the Big 3 is in the very unlikely event the five Big 12 leftovers can entice them to join an entirely new conference and I think that's never going to happen for several reasons. 1. It's apparent to me that BYU knows the MWC is its conference so the Borg isn't leaving for anything that isn't head and shoulders better. 2. Although Mizzou and the Kansas schools are a very good threesome, ISU is a dud and Baylor is a viscous turd. Therefore, Mizzou, KU and KSU would have to find somebody else out there to sweeten the pot. Some TCU fans suggested ECU, Southern Miss, Houston and Memphis. However, other than ECU, none had impressive attendance last year, ECU and USM bring zero TVs and Houston and Memphis don't control their markets. 3. I'm convinced Mizzou, KU, KSU and ISU are going to be offered by the Big East, which would then go to 12 assuming Rutgers isn't offered by the Big Ten (I'd put that at just 50-50 now) so the Big East can hold a conference football championship game. That would moot the entire argument right there. Listen, at the beginning of the week, I think there was a lot for Aztecs to be worried about and it pissed me off a bit how few people seemed to get that or care. However, things have been breaking our way so far. Things to look for by Tuesday: 1. Absolute confirmation that UT, TT, OU and Okie State are Pac bound and confirmation that aTm isn't going to the SEC but also to the Pac. On those bases, we will pretty much know Utah is staying. 2. Continued momentum toward Mizzou, KU, KSU and ISU going to the Big East. On that basis, we can be reasonably sure the kind of new league you've referred to isn't going to happen. Just because the MWC won't get the Big 12 leftovers now doesn't mean the MWC won't get them later when the next dominoes begin to fall with SEC expansion. A couple weeks ago, that looked imminent. Now if aTm doesn't come, it doesn't appear it will happen for a year at least. And BTW, there's speculation that in the unlikely event aTm DOES go to the SEC that the SEC will also take Mizzou. If that were to happen, the upside is definitely no new conference since the other three could never pull it off. However, it could also mean that Utah would go to the Pac to replace aTm. Stay tuned. |
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Post by steveaztec on Jun 11, 2010 19:58:14 GMT -8
Once again......After this is over we will be in no worse position than we are right now.
We can only improve or stay the same.
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Post by RiffelBooks on Jun 11, 2010 20:17:20 GMT -8
I feel pretty good about our situation after today.
I found what I was talking about. It was Matt Hayes and you can find it on the Yahoo! sports More News list from Thursday with his strange and inaccurate look at how the conferences will line up in 2012. I thought he just forgot about us, then I saw another list later of non-AQ conferences and he had us in the WAC! Lame.
I agree with you Steve, but right now I think we'll be better off because we'll get a BCS autobid.
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Post by ervaztec on Jun 11, 2010 21:26:31 GMT -8
Once again......After this is over we will be in no worse position than we are right now. We can only improve or stay the same. I totally disagree...I think that before we tee it up this fall we will know whether we will be a football power in 5 years or be like CSULB. These are THE most important days in our schools Football history. |
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Post by aztecgold on Jun 12, 2010 7:01:41 GMT -8
The MWC would be crazy to get rid of SDSU with it's TV market and recruiting base. The only thing SDSU needs is dollars. If they get into a BCS conference with more money for each school then they would take off since they could afford to pay for better coaching. The same thing happened to Oregon and Oregon State in the PAC 10. They were horrible before they became a BCS conference. Of course, Oregon was also helped by the officer from Microsoft who gives them big $$$$$$$$.
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