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Post by aztecryan on Feb 24, 2024 22:52:29 GMT -8
The Orioles got four consecutive top five picks. They tanked and tanked hard, only turning the corner when Mike Elias and his crew got in there to aid development and help with their internal processes. They hit on a generational guy in Holliday and another star in Rutschman. The Braves are a complete outlier, like I've mentioned multiple times. They secured two stars at ridiculous bargain contracts in Acuña and Albies. They capitalized on ridiculous market efficiencies, trading for Sean Murphy and then hit on premium guys in Riley, Strider and others. I'm not sure what the Reds have that's so great: Elly is great, but they have serious holes on the roster and are likely the third best team in their own division, a weak one in the NL Central. That's a weird comparison. Their season win total is identical to the Padres. I'm not sure if you've been paying attention or not (clearly: not) but there's actual talent coming up this year in Merrill, Thorpe, Iriarte, Pauley, Martorella and others. Another really strange argument. Give the Orioles their due. They have hit with all of their recent draft picks, The Padres are less consistent. The Reds have a good core of players, Elly, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, India, Greene, Fraley. The Braves have the Midas touch, with a core of 8 homegrown players who are all star/HOF caliber. The Padres have some bright spots, but the track record is very spotty. Many guys hit .175 with them and are traded or never heard from again. Until this next generation comes up and actually HITS THE FRIGGEN BALL LIKE MAJOR LEAGUERS, they are just scrub prospects…..and that includes Salas. He didn’t exactly crush it last year. I know he is “only seventeen” but until he actually smokes some MLB pitching, he is just a prospect. Pretty sure I did. It's a lot easier to hit on draft picks when you're picking at the top of the round consistently. They lost 90+ games consistently for four straight seasons and were the worst team in baseball twice. Historically, first rounders comprise most of the WAR production for a draft class. Big difference picking first or second as opposed to 17th or 25th. The Padres have drafted extremely well in Preller's tenure, as the laundry list of players I went through are all top prospects or big leaguers. I'm not ready to anoint most of the guys on your Reds list, personally. CES has 240 plate appearances and was worth 0.5 WAR. He was also traded to Cincinnati, not developed in their system. Greene throws really, really hard, but it's a straight fastball and he's extremely homer prone. 43 bombs over two seasons. Steer and Fraley are both in their late 20's. Not really young. The guys you're thinking of in Padre land aren't actual prospects. Guys like Taylor Trammell with questionable hit tools, guys like Austin Hedges with beyond questionable hit tools....those guys aren't *prospects.* This group coming up? Actual prospects. Merrill will hit, Campusano will be a top 15 catcher, etc. Different animal. Development cycles vary, sometimes dramatically. Your comment on Salas tells me you don't really know what you're talking about. A 122 wRC+ in Lake Elsinore for a kid who was assigned there two days before he turned 17 is ludicrous. Ask any talent evaluator, or better yet, just read every scouting report on him. You can't have the same argument two different ways. |
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Post by aardvark on Feb 24, 2024 23:05:04 GMT -8
So they weren't tanking after the Fowler splurge in 2015? Yeah, that's pretty funny, I guess. It seems pretty clear that winning wasn't a priority prior to Seidler assuming control of the team. So...what years were the Padres tanking? |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 24, 2024 23:08:58 GMT -8
So they weren't tanking after the Fowler splurge in 2015? Yeah, that's pretty funny, I guess. It seems pretty clear that winning wasn't a priority prior to Seidler assuming control of the team. So...what years were the Padres tanking? Preller was hired in late 2014. Ownership wanted to make a splash so they went all out to sign a bunch of mercenaries in Upton, Norris, Shields, etc to try and get a quick jolt up the standings. It failed. So they completely reset in 2016 and tanked through 2019. The COVID year obviously stands alone as a weird, one off situation, but Seidler assumed control post-2020 and they were in win mode. |
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Post by aardvark on Feb 24, 2024 23:16:16 GMT -8
So...what years were the Padres tanking? Preller was hired in late 2014. Ownership wanted to make a splash so they went all out to sign a bunch of mercenaries in Upton, Norris, Shields, etc to try and get a quick jolt up the standings. It failed. So they completely reset in 2016 and tanked through 2019. The COVID year obviously stands alone as a weird, one off situation, but Seidler assumed control post-2020 and they were in win mode. Including the Covid year, the Padres have gone a rousing 28 games over.500. Take 2020 away, and they are 14 games over .500. In 3 seasons. They completely $#!+ the bed in 2023. All under Preller. I have seen enough. |
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Post by johneaztec on Feb 24, 2024 23:40:06 GMT -8
Preller was hired in late 2014. Ownership wanted to make a splash so they went all out to sign a bunch of mercenaries in Upton, Norris, Shields, etc to try and get a quick jolt up the standings. It failed. So they completely reset in 2016 and tanked through 2019. The COVID year obviously stands alone as a weird, one off situation, but Seidler assumed control post-2020 and they were in win mode. Including the Covid year, the Padres have gone a rousing 28 games over.500. Take 2020 away, and they are 14 games over .500. In 3 seasons. They completely $#!+ the bed in 2023. All under Preller. I have seen enough. Proofs in the pudding. He has an eye for talent, but just can't seem to get the team to the W.S. That's all that matters. Last year was pitiful. |
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Post by aztecmusician on Feb 25, 2024 2:45:08 GMT -8
Give the Orioles their due. They have hit with all of their recent draft picks, The Padres are less consistent. The Reds have a good core of players, Elly, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, India, Greene, Fraley. The Braves have the Midas touch, with a core of 8 homegrown players who are all star/HOF caliber. The Padres have some bright spots, but the track record is very spotty. Many guys hit .175 with them and are traded or never heard from again. Until this next generation comes up and actually HITS THE FRIGGEN BALL LIKE MAJOR LEAGUERS, they are just scrub prospects…..and that includes Salas. He didn’t exactly crush it last year. I know he is “only seventeen” but until he actually smokes some MLB pitching, he is just a prospect. Pretty sure I did. It's a lot easier to hit on draft picks when you're picking at the top of the round consistently. They lost 90+ games consistently for four straight seasons and were the worst team in baseball twice. Historically, first rounders comprise most of the WAR production for a draft class. Big difference picking first or second as opposed to 17th or 25th. The Padres have drafted extremely well in Preller's tenure, as the laundry list of players I went through are all top prospects or big leaguers. I'm not ready to anoint most of the guys on your Reds list, personally. CES has 240 plate appearances and was worth 0.5 WAR. He was also traded to Cincinnati, not developed in their system. Greene throws really, really hard, but it's a straight fastball and he's extremely homer prone. 43 bombs over two seasons. Steer and Fraley are both in their late 20's. Not really young. The guys you're thinking of in Padre land aren't actual prospects. Guys like Taylor Trammell with questionable hit tools, guys like Austin Hedges with beyond questionable hit tools....those guys aren't *prospects.* This group coming up? Actual prospects. Merrill will hit, Campusano will be a top 15 catcher, etc. Different animal. Development cycles vary, sometimes dramatically. Your comment on Salas tells me you don't really know what you're talking about. A 122 wRC+ in Lake Elsinore for a kid who was assigned there two days before he turned 17 is ludicrous. Ask any talent evaluator, or better yet, just read every scouting report on him. You can't have the same argument two different ways. As a long time Padre fan who remembers Dave Roberts, Bill Almond, Ben Davis, Shawn Abner and Matt Bush, I realize that even the “can’t miss” prospects can miss. It’s a very inexact science trying to predict how 18-24 year old baseball players are going to perform in the show. Some succeed, others don’t, it’s that simple. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_San_Diego_Padres_first-round_draft_picksWhat is apparent is the hype machine the Padres crank up to boost the value of their own prospects, many of whom eventually get injured or simply are below average performers at the top level. As far as Salas goes, he will probably be one of the young players who pans out. However if he doesn’t, it won’t be unusual or even uncommon for this franchise, the historically worst farm system in the history of baseball. He was shut down by AA pitching last year. If the Padres are smart (debatable) they will start him this season in San Antonio and at least have him prove he can hit AA pitching before throwing him against major league arms. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 25, 2024 8:13:24 GMT -8
Preller was hired in late 2014. Ownership wanted to make a splash so they went all out to sign a bunch of mercenaries in Upton, Norris, Shields, etc to try and get a quick jolt up the standings. It failed. So they completely reset in 2016 and tanked through 2019. The COVID year obviously stands alone as a weird, one off situation, but Seidler assumed control post-2020 and they were in win mode. Including the Covid year, the Padres have gone a rousing 28 games over.500. Take 2020 away, and they are 14 games over .500. In 3 seasons. They completely $#!+ the bed in 2023. All under Preller. I have seen enough. If you're blaming Preller for 2023....yikes. Just a really weak argument. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 25, 2024 8:19:29 GMT -8
Pretty sure I did. It's a lot easier to hit on draft picks when you're picking at the top of the round consistently. They lost 90+ games consistently for four straight seasons and were the worst team in baseball twice. Historically, first rounders comprise most of the WAR production for a draft class. Big difference picking first or second as opposed to 17th or 25th. The Padres have drafted extremely well in Preller's tenure, as the laundry list of players I went through are all top prospects or big leaguers. I'm not ready to anoint most of the guys on your Reds list, personally. CES has 240 plate appearances and was worth 0.5 WAR. He was also traded to Cincinnati, not developed in their system. Greene throws really, really hard, but it's a straight fastball and he's extremely homer prone. 43 bombs over two seasons. Steer and Fraley are both in their late 20's. Not really young. The guys you're thinking of in Padre land aren't actual prospects. Guys like Taylor Trammell with questionable hit tools, guys like Austin Hedges with beyond questionable hit tools....those guys aren't *prospects.* This group coming up? Actual prospects. Merrill will hit, Campusano will be a top 15 catcher, etc. Different animal. Development cycles vary, sometimes dramatically. Your comment on Salas tells me you don't really know what you're talking about. A 122 wRC+ in Lake Elsinore for a kid who was assigned there two days before he turned 17 is ludicrous. Ask any talent evaluator, or better yet, just read every scouting report on him. You can't have the same argument two different ways. As a long time Padre fan who remembers Dave Roberts, Bill Almond, Ben Davis, Shawn Abner and Matt Bush, I realize that even the “can’t miss” prospects can miss. It’s a very inexact science trying to predict how 18-24 year old baseball players are going to perform in the show. Some succeed, others don’t, it’s that simple. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_San_Diego_Padres_first-round_draft_picksWhat is apparent is the hype machine the Padres crank up to boost the value of their own prospects, many of whom eventually get injured or simply are below average performers at the top level. As far as Salas goes, he will probably be one of the young players who pans out. However if he doesn’t, it won’t be unusual or even uncommon for this franchise, the historically worst farm system in the history of baseball. He was shut down by AA pitching last year. If the Padres are smart (debatable) they will start him this season in San Antonio and at least have him prove he can hit AA pitching before throwing him against major league arms. As a long time Padres fan...it doesn't matter. This is a circular argument. Matt Bush (a former friend of mine) could never hit. He was chosen to save money because the Moores regime didn't want to win, they wanted to pocket cash by not drafting Verlander and paying him his bonus. Padres cut a deal with Bush to save money...period. It's what the Pirates have done for decades, outside of drafting Skenes. You clearly don't understand how minor league baseball works. I don't know how to explain this more clearly: Taking an umbrella argument against a certain group of prospects is lazy, generic and false. Every class is different, every stage of development is different. Actual scouting reports matter. Matt Bush was a former number one draft pick.... that doesn't mean he holds a candle to Jackson Merrill. Rymer Liriano was once a top prospect in the Padre system....that doesn't mean he's on the same level as Dylan Lesko. Regarding Salas: A 17 year old catcher SHOULD struggle in Double-A. It was expected. It's also irrelevant, considering it was nine games. You're kinda making the point for me here. If you're ignoring obvious variables, you're missing the mark. |
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Post by aardvark on Feb 25, 2024 11:39:54 GMT -8
As a long time Padre fan who remembers Dave Roberts, Bill Almond, Ben Davis, Shawn Abner and Matt Bush, I realize that even the “can’t miss” prospects can miss. It’s a very inexact science trying to predict how 18-24 year old baseball players are going to perform in the show. Some succeed, others don’t, it’s that simple. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_San_Diego_Padres_first-round_draft_picksWhat is apparent is the hype machine the Padres crank up to boost the value of their own prospects, many of whom eventually get injured or simply are below average performers at the top level. As far as Salas goes, he will probably be one of the young players who pans out. However if he doesn’t, it won’t be unusual or even uncommon for this franchise, the historically worst farm system in the history of baseball. He was shut down by AA pitching last year. If the Padres are smart (debatable) they will start him this season in San Antonio and at least have him prove he can hit AA pitching before throwing him against major league arms. As a long time Padres fan...it doesn't matter. This is a circular argument. Matt Bush (a former friend of mine) could never hit. He was chosen to save money because the Moores regime didn't want to win, they wanted to pocket cash by not drafting Verlander and paying him his bonus. Padres cut a deal with Bush to save money...period. It's what the Pirates have done for decades, outside of drafting Skenes. You clearly don't understand how minor league baseball works. I don't know how to explain this more clearly: Taking an umbrella argument against a certain group of prospects is lazy, generic and false. Every class is different, every stage of development is different. Actual scouting reports matter. Matt Bush was a former number one draft pick.... that doesn't mean he holds a candle to Jackson Merrill. Rymer Liriano was once a top prospect in the Padre system....that doesn't mean he's on the same level as Dylan Lesko. Regarding Salas: A 17 year old catcher SHOULD struggle in Double-A. It was expected. It's also irrelevant, considering it was nine games. You're kinda making the point for me here. If you're ignoring obvious variables, you're missing the mark. Salas was 1 for his last 20 in low A, BEFORE he was promoted. |
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Post by aardvark on Feb 25, 2024 11:40:29 GMT -8
Including the Covid year, the Padres have gone a rousing 28 games over.500. Take 2020 away, and they are 14 games over .500. In 3 seasons. They completely $#!+ the bed in 2023. All under Preller. I have seen enough. If you're blaming Preller for 2023....yikes. Just a really weak argument. It's not just 2023. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 25, 2024 13:07:36 GMT -8
As a long time Padres fan...it doesn't matter. This is a circular argument. Matt Bush (a former friend of mine) could never hit. He was chosen to save money because the Moores regime didn't want to win, they wanted to pocket cash by not drafting Verlander and paying him his bonus. Padres cut a deal with Bush to save money...period. It's what the Pirates have done for decades, outside of drafting Skenes. You clearly don't understand how minor league baseball works. I don't know how to explain this more clearly: Taking an umbrella argument against a certain group of prospects is lazy, generic and false. Every class is different, every stage of development is different. Actual scouting reports matter. Matt Bush was a former number one draft pick.... that doesn't mean he holds a candle to Jackson Merrill. Rymer Liriano was once a top prospect in the Padre system....that doesn't mean he's on the same level as Dylan Lesko. Regarding Salas: A 17 year old catcher SHOULD struggle in Double-A. It was expected. It's also irrelevant, considering it was nine games. You're kinda making the point for me here. If you're ignoring obvious variables, you're missing the mark. Salas was 1 for his last 20 in low A, BEFORE he was promoted. So he had a near 140 wRC+ over a larger sample size. Illustrates my point. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 25, 2024 13:08:07 GMT -8
If you're blaming Preller for 2023....yikes. Just a really weak argument. It's not just 2023. Then what is it? |
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Post by aardvark on Feb 25, 2024 19:20:03 GMT -8
Salas was 1 for his last 20 in low A, BEFORE he was promoted. So he had a near 140 wRC+ over a larger sample size. Illustrates my point. So then why move him up after what had been a good season--at 17--after the 1-20 to end his time at Elsinore, and then going 12 for his next 63? |
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Post by aardvark on Feb 25, 2024 19:22:38 GMT -8
Another sheet season--2021. Hell, the Padres couldn't even (allegedly) tank very well. Were they tanking from '16 thru '19, or they just weren't very good? Because if they were tanking, they didn't even do THAT very well. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 25, 2024 19:24:00 GMT -8
So he had a near 140 wRC+ over a larger sample size. Illustrates my point. So then why move him up after what had been a good season--at 17--after the 1-20 to end his time at Elsinore, and then going 12 for his next 63? Because there are many, many more things that go into promotion of prospects than just individual performance. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 25, 2024 19:28:23 GMT -8
Another sheet season--2021. Hell, the Padres couldn't even (allegedly) tank very well. Were they tanking from '16 thru '19, or they just weren't very good? Because if they were tanking, they didn't even do THAT very well. It takes a lot to be Oakland or Baltimore level bad. You have to deliberately not spend money, deliberately ignore infrastructure, deliberately avoid a lot of things that are hard to do. Losing 100 games is hard. |
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Post by johneaztec on Feb 25, 2024 20:02:47 GMT -8
Another sheet season--2021. Hell, the Padres couldn't even (allegedly) tank very well. Were they tanking from '16 thru '19, or they just weren't very good? Because if they were tanking, they didn't even do THAT very well. Yeah, they were just simply bad. No sugar coating. |
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Post by johneaztec on Feb 25, 2024 20:04:51 GMT -8
So then why move him up after what had been a good season--at 17--after the 1-20 to end his time at Elsinore, and then going 12 for his next 63? Because there are many, many more things that go into promotion of prospects than just individual performance. Yeah, I think one of the reasons for promoting him were for flash, so to speak. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 25, 2024 20:09:05 GMT -8
Because there are many, many more things that go into promotion of prospects than just individual performance. Yeah, I think one of the reasons for promoting him were for flash, so to speak. No. |
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Post by johneaztec on Feb 25, 2024 20:09:53 GMT -8
Yeah, I think one of the reasons for promoting him were for flash, so to speak. No. Yes. |
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