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Post by aztecryan on Dec 12, 2023 9:05:47 GMT -8
So Shohei Ohtani signs with the Dodgers (and in reality was never going anywhere else) for $700M over ten years. Except....not really. $680M in deferred money allows the Dodgers to absorb a luxury tax rate of around $46M, so the present value of the contract is roughly $460M. This allows LA to keep spending and putting players around Ohtani, with an ownership group that has $320B in assets. Deferrals have been a thing for a while (Chris Davis, Ken Griffey, Bobby Bonilla) but the new CBA states that deferrals can be "limitless" in nature and there's absolutely no penalty for doing so.
With the death of RSN's for multiple teams, the gap between the haves and have not's just continues to widen. The Mariners, for example, have said they can't spend more than $20M the rest of the offseason and have a firm number they can't exceed. The Guardians don't have a TV deal anymore and are likewise stuck without a huge piece of their team revenue. While LA buys a super team at a discount, the "it's good for baseball" crowd keeps shouting at the top of their lungs, carrying water for a sport that's close to falling off the entertainment cliff.
If the Guggenheim Group decides to sell the Dodgers before 2043, they can leverage Ohtani's contract off the sale price and make paying him someone else's problem, getting away with paying the sport's best player essentially nothing. Ohtani will be the 17th highest-paid Dodger next season, at just $2M. Baseball may have opened Pandora's box here and it may be difficult to slam it closed without serious changes going forward.
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Post by aardvark on Dec 12, 2023 11:43:56 GMT -8
So Shohei Ohtani signs with the Dodgers (and in reality was never going anywhere else) for $700M over ten years. Except....not really. $680M in deferred money allows the Dodgers to absorb a luxury tax rate of around $46M, so the present value of the contract is roughly $460M. This allows LA to keep spending and putting players around Ohtani, with an ownership group that has $320B in assets. Deferrals have been a thing for a while (Chris Davis, Ken Griffey, Bobby Bonilla) but the new CBA states that deferrals can be "limitless" in nature and there's absolutely no penalty for doing so. With the death of RSN's for multiple teams, the gap between the haves and have not's just continues to widen. The Mariners, for example, have said they can't spend more than $20M the rest of the offseason and have a firm number they can't exceed. The Guardians don't have a TV deal anymore and are likewise stuck without a huge piece of their team revenue. While LA buys a super team at a discount, the "it's good for baseball" crowd keeps shouting at the top of their lungs, carrying water for a sport that's close to falling off the entertainment cliff. If the Guggenheim Group decides to sell the Dodgers before 2043, they can leverage Ohtani's contract off the sale price and make paying him someone else's problem, getting away with paying the sport's best player essentially nothing. Ohtani will be the 17th highest-paid Dodger next season, at just $2M. Baseball may have opened Pandora's box here and it may be difficult to slam it closed without serious changes going forward. Didn't Arizona put themselves into a financial he// around the time they won their only World Series? They had a number of deferred contracts (Steve Finley comes to mind), and if memory serves, they got into quite a financial bind, and MLB had to help them out. |
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 12, 2023 11:49:36 GMT -8
So Shohei Ohtani signs with the Dodgers (and in reality was never going anywhere else) for $700M over ten years. Except....not really. $680M in deferred money allows the Dodgers to absorb a luxury tax rate of around $46M, so the present value of the contract is roughly $460M. This allows LA to keep spending and putting players around Ohtani, with an ownership group that has $320B in assets. Deferrals have been a thing for a while (Chris Davis, Ken Griffey, Bobby Bonilla) but the new CBA states that deferrals can be "limitless" in nature and there's absolutely no penalty for doing so. With the death of RSN's for multiple teams, the gap between the haves and have not's just continues to widen. The Mariners, for example, have said they can't spend more than $20M the rest of the offseason and have a firm number they can't exceed. The Guardians don't have a TV deal anymore and are likewise stuck without a huge piece of their team revenue. While LA buys a super team at a discount, the "it's good for baseball" crowd keeps shouting at the top of their lungs, carrying water for a sport that's close to falling off the entertainment cliff. If the Guggenheim Group decides to sell the Dodgers before 2043, they can leverage Ohtani's contract off the sale price and make paying him someone else's problem, getting away with paying the sport's best player essentially nothing. Ohtani will be the 17th highest-paid Dodger next season, at just $2M. Baseball may have opened Pandora's box here and it may be difficult to slam it closed without serious changes going forward. Didn't Arizona put themselves into a financial he// around the time they won their only World Series? They had a number of deferred contracts (Steve Finley comes to mind), and if memory serves, they got into quite a financial bind, and MLB had to help them out. You may be right, I don't recall. |
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Post by survalli on Dec 12, 2023 14:59:01 GMT -8
I would be very curious to see how the State of California weighs in on this from a tax stand point.
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Post by sdsuball on Dec 12, 2023 23:25:17 GMT -8
I would be very curious to see how the State of California weighs in on this from a tax stand point. I mean isn't it pretty straightforward? He gets taxed on his earnings for that year. He will have smaller tax bills now, much larger tax bills later. The bigger question is, how much will he borrow against the future contract value for businesses/investments? |
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Post by survalli on Dec 13, 2023 0:09:09 GMT -8
I would be very curious to see how the State of California weighs in on this from a tax stand point. I mean isn't it pretty straightforward? He gets taxed on his earnings for that year. He will have smaller tax bills now, much larger tax bills later. The bigger question is, how much will he borrow against the future contract value for businesses/investments? i don't think its going to be pretty straightforward in the long term, even bloomberg www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-12/shohei-ohtani-s-contract-should-become-a-case-study-for-mbas loosely refers to this as "Tax Evasion" and "Money Laundering." i could also see a possible National Case. Ohtani and the Dodgers devaluing his current worth in order to maximize their Organizations immediate value while limiting his and their exposure to taxes. this article here argues that the courts have already proven that ball player are already considered assets by the court. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0361368222000691 |
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Post by sdsuball on Dec 13, 2023 0:20:25 GMT -8
I mean isn't it pretty straightforward? He gets taxed on his earnings for that year. He will have smaller tax bills now, much larger tax bills later. The bigger question is, how much will he borrow against the future contract value for businesses/investments? i don't think its going to be pretty straightforward in the long term, even bloomberg www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-12/shohei-ohtani-s-contract-should-become-a-case-study-for-mbas loosely refers to this as "Tax Evasion" and "Money Laundering." i could also see a possible National Case. Ohtani and the Dodgers devaluing his current worth in order to maximize their Organizations immediate value while limiting his and their exposure to taxes. this article here argues that the courts have already proven that ball player are already considered assets by the court. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0361368222000691 Oh wow, I didn't consider the idea of Shohei moving after his contract ends. He could establish residence in Texas or something to dodge CA's state income tax. Interesting. But he would still have to pay federal income tax, even if he were to move out of the US. |
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Post by survalli on Dec 13, 2023 11:04:14 GMT -8
Oh wow, I didn't consider the idea of Shohei moving after his contract ends. He could establish residence in Texas or something to dodge CA's state income tax. Interesting. But he would still have to pay federal income tax, even if he were to move out of the US. Yes, he is a US Persons |
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Post by junior on Dec 18, 2023 11:07:04 GMT -8
He's probably on a P visa while he plays ball. Fairly unlimited time.
Japan currently has a flat 20.42% national income tax. I'm sure he'll have plenty of money people to help him decide where he and his $680M will land when the time comes…
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Post by aardvark on Feb 24, 2024 23:33:05 GMT -8
Announced (allegedly) tonight that Bellinger goes back to the Cubs on a 3-year/$80 mil deal with opt-outs each of the first 2 seasons.
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Post by docmm on Feb 27, 2024 7:46:42 GMT -8
Boras's boys are probably realizing that their agent may have dug his feet in a little too deeply this off-season. It's getting easier and easier for owners to collude.
It will be interesting to see what, if any, effect getting to a team this late will have on their production this season.
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Post by sdsuball on Feb 27, 2024 9:11:01 GMT -8
Boras's boys are probably realizing that their agent may have dug his feet in a little too deeply this off-season. It's getting easier and easier for owners to collude. It will be interesting to see what, if any, effect getting to a team this late will have on their production this season. Wouldn't mind offering Snell a frontloaded 220M/11Y type deal. 20M AAV to stay under the luxury tax. Honestly I think we will be good with Marsee in Center and Merrill in Left, with Profar and Azocar as bench outfielders. No need to get another outfielder IMO. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 27, 2024 9:22:07 GMT -8
Boras's boys are probably realizing that their agent may have dug his feet in a little too deeply this off-season. It's getting easier and easier for owners to collude. It will be interesting to see what, if any, effect getting to a team this late will have on their production this season. Wouldn't mind offering Snell a frontloaded 220M/11Y type deal. 20M AAV to stay under the luxury tax. Honestly I think we will be good with Marsee in Center and Merrill in Left, with Profar and Azocar as bench outfielders. No need to get another outfielder IMO. Not a great idea. On that note! |
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Post by sdsuball on Feb 27, 2024 13:16:30 GMT -8
Wouldn't mind offering Snell a frontloaded 220M/11Y type deal. 20M AAV to stay under the luxury tax. Honestly I think we will be good with Marsee in Center and Merrill in Left, with Profar and Azocar as bench outfielders. No need to get another outfielder IMO. Not a great idea. On that note! Pretty sure that we will do better then 0.4 WAR in left, and 1.4 WAR in center, with Merrill and Marsee. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 27, 2024 13:37:08 GMT -8
Not a great idea. On that note! Pretty sure that we will do better then 0.4 WAR in left, and 1.4 WAR in center, with Merrill and Marsee. Kinda not the point. Marsee isn't ready to handle everyday MLB pitching. A contending team can't have an outfield rotation of two rookies, Jose Azocar and Jurickson Profar behind Fernando. |
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Post by azson on Feb 27, 2024 14:56:41 GMT -8
Wouldn't mind offering Snell a frontloaded 220M/11Y type deal. 20M AAV to stay under the luxury tax. Honestly I think we will be good with Marsee in Center and Merrill in Left, with Profar and Azocar as bench outfielders. No need to get another outfielder IMO. Not a great idea. On that note! $$$ quote in bold: Left Field Padres (30th, 0.4 WAR) After opting out of the final year of a three-year, $21 million deal, Profar spent most of last season with the Rockies but drew his release in late August, returned to the Padres, and finished with just a .242/.321/.368 (76 wRC+) season line. The 31-year-old switch-hitter projects for a nearly identical line (.237/.325/.368), which in a more pitcher-friendly park translates to a 95 wRC+. He might serve as a stopgap as the Padres, determined to make the whole team out of shortstops, give 20-year-old prospect Jackson Merrill a long look in left field, where he has just five games of regular season experience. He hit a combined .277/.326/.444 (108 wRC+) with 15 homers and 15 steals split between High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio; despite no Triple-A experience, he could make the team out of spring training. That could be interesting, and perhaps exciting, but there’s a non-zero chance it could be developmentally detrimental. |
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Post by aardvark on Feb 27, 2024 16:02:43 GMT -8
Not a great idea. On that note! $$$ quote in bold: Left Field Padres (30th, 0.4 WAR) After opting out of the final year of a three-year, $21 million deal, Profar spent most of last season with the Rockies but drew his release in late August, returned to the Padres, and finished with just a .242/.321/.368 (76 wRC+) season line. The 31-year-old switch-hitter projects for a nearly identical line (.237/.325/.368), which in a more pitcher-friendly park translates to a 95 wRC+. He might serve as a stopgap as the Padres, determined to make the whole team out of shortstops, give 20-year-old prospect Jackson Merrill a long look in left field, where he has just five games of regular season experience. He hit a combined .277/.326/.444 (108 wRC+) with 15 homers and 15 steals split between High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio; despite no Triple-A experience, he could make the team out of spring training. That could be interesting, and perhaps exciting, but there’s a non-zero chance it could be developmentally detrimental.  Love the highlighted line. |
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Post by sdsuball on Feb 27, 2024 21:26:19 GMT -8
Pretty sure that we will do better then 0.4 WAR in left, and 1.4 WAR in center, with Merrill and Marsee. Kinda not the point. Marsee isn't ready to handle everyday MLB pitching. A contending team can't have an outfield rotation of two rookies, Jose Azocar and Jurickson Profar behind Fernando. Azocar is decent enough. Marsee sure looks ready! |
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Post by sdsuball on Feb 27, 2024 22:27:50 GMT -8
Wouldn't mind offering Snell a frontloaded 220M/11Y type deal. 20M AAV to stay under the luxury tax. Honestly I think we will be good with Marsee in Center and Merrill in Left, with Profar and Azocar as bench outfielders. No need to get another outfielder IMO. Not a great idea. On that note! Would he accept 200M/10Y or 220M/11Y, over the Yankees 150M/5Y? It gives him the guaranteed $$ that he wants. And he would love to come back to the Padres. You could structure it 30M/30M/30M/25M/25M/25M/25M/10M/10M/5M/5M, with player opt-outs after 5 years. The last 6 years of the contract are 80M over 6 years for Snell's age 36-41 seasons (which is not bad). |
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Post by sdsuball on Feb 27, 2024 22:50:04 GMT -8
I think getting Snell back gives us a better chance of winning a World Series, then getting Tommy Pham.
If you're dead set on getting another outfielder, then you trade for the Red Sox outfielder prospect who is on a dirt cheap rookie salary, and you sign Snell and stay under the luxury tax.
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