|
Post by aztecryan on Sept 24, 2023 7:50:01 GMT -8
Everyone expected far more than the mediocrity of the entire team that we just witnessed this season, but then again it is the Padres we’re talking about…expectations for this team are always unrealistically high, and our hopes rarely come to fruition. In many ways, the events that led to this season’s train wreck should have been easily predictable… I don't think anyone could have predicted 0-12 in extra innings and one of the worst records in one run games in the last 90 years.
|
|
|
Post by johneaztec on Sept 24, 2023 8:22:27 GMT -8
Everyone expected far more than the mediocrity of the entire team that we just witnessed this season, but then again it is the Padres we’re talking about…expectations for this team are always unrealistically high, and our hopes rarely come to fruition. In many ways, the events that led to this season’s train wreck should have been easily predictable… I don't think anyone could have predicted 0-12 in extra innings and one of the worst records in one run games in the last 90 years. Or, predicted that we would miss the playoffs with our talent. VERY disappointing, to say the least.
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Sept 24, 2023 15:41:52 GMT -8
Elimination numbers: Cubs 1, and AZ 2. Any combinations of our losses and Cub wins adding up to 1, and the same combo of D-Backs w/l adding up to 2, and we are officially done.
We are down to a less than 0.1% chance of making the playoffs.
Just make it official already.
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Sept 25, 2023 13:46:03 GMT -8
After the D-Backs loss today, the tragic numbers remain 2 for AZ, and 1 for the Cubs.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Sept 25, 2023 14:27:47 GMT -8
It's going to be a bumpy offseason....
Buckle up.
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Sept 25, 2023 15:17:20 GMT -8
It's going to be a bumpy offseason.... Buckle up. Lots of changes to be made, payroll to be trimmed. Just what will the changes be? I suspect they will be made fairly quickly.
|
|
|
Post by sdsuball on Sept 25, 2023 17:40:12 GMT -8
It's going to be a bumpy offseason.... Buckle up. Trading Soto for some starting pitching? Pretty much the only way to get to 200M and have enough starting pitching. How much is a season of Soto worth?
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Sept 25, 2023 17:46:46 GMT -8
It's going to be a bumpy offseason.... Buckle up. Trading Soto for some starting pitching? Pretty much the only way to get to 200M and have enough starting pitching. How much is a season of Soto worth? Not the only way at all.
|
|
|
Post by sdsuball on Sept 25, 2023 19:55:11 GMT -8
Trading Soto for some starting pitching? Pretty much the only way to get to 200M and have enough starting pitching. How much is a season of Soto worth? Not the only way at all. Well, somebody is going to be traded to get starting pitching... with a maximum payroll of 200M, we won't be able to get enough starters in FA to make up for losing several key pieces. Snell is gone, Lugo is gone, and we may have to pay Martinez and/or Wacha $16M per year for their services. Waldron can fill one of those slots, but we need at least one (if not two) more starters.
|
|
|
Post by sdsuball on Sept 25, 2023 20:01:48 GMT -8
Trading Soto for some starting pitching? Pretty much the only way to get to 200M and have enough starting pitching. How much is a season of Soto worth? Not the only way at all. By the way, this is why the Soto trade didn't make sense - because it didn't make sense from a payroll standpoint. Abrams (3.6 WAR) + Gore (2 WAR) vs. Soto (5.1 WAR), is pretty close to even, which is scary considering that trade happened just last year, and there were other prospects included. Obviously that changes a lot (not making the trade), it's not clear if we would have signed Bogaerts, maybe Kim at short Abrams at 2B, or maybe Abrams in center. Regardless, this deal is likely to look very lopsided five years from now. Hopefully we can at least get a good return from him in the offseason, or maybe we keep him and make a huge playoff run next year.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Sept 25, 2023 20:17:47 GMT -8
By the way, this is why the Soto trade didn't make sense - because it didn't make sense from a payroll standpoint. Abrams (3.6 WAR) + Gore (2 WAR) vs. Soto (5.1 WAR), is pretty close to even, which is scary considering that trade happened just last year, and there were other prospects included. Obviously that changes a lot (not making the trade), it's not clear if we would have signed Bogaerts, maybe Kim at short Abrams at 2B, or maybe Abrams in center. Regardless, this deal is likely to look very lopsided five years from now. Hopefully we can at least get a good return from him in the offseason, or maybe we keep him and make a huge playoff run next year. Soto just put up one of the best seasons for a Padre outfielder in team history. The trade made perfect sense. You're not evaluating anything in a one year window, especially when it comes to a player of Soto's caliber. Payroll wasn't a consideration then and it won't be a consideration in a Soto extension. Prospects are commodities, they are meant to be used to target an established player. Every GM in baseball makes that trade 100 out of 100 times, I promise you.
|
|
|
Post by sdsuball on Sept 25, 2023 20:27:13 GMT -8
By the way, this is why the Soto trade didn't make sense - because it didn't make sense from a payroll standpoint. Abrams (3.6 WAR) + Gore (2 WAR) vs. Soto (5.1 WAR), is pretty close to even, which is scary considering that trade happened just last year, and there were other prospects included. Obviously that changes a lot (not making the trade), it's not clear if we would have signed Bogaerts, maybe Kim at short Abrams at 2B, or maybe Abrams in center. Regardless, this deal is likely to look very lopsided five years from now. Hopefully we can at least get a good return from him in the offseason, or maybe we keep him and make a huge playoff run next year. Soto just put up one of the best seasons for a Padre outfielder in team history. The trade made perfect sense. You're not evaluating anything in a one year window, especially when it comes to a player of Soto's caliber. Payroll wasn't a consideration then and it won't be a consideration in a Soto extension. Prospects are commodities, they are meant to be used to target an established player. Every GM in baseball makes that trade 100 out of 100 times, I promise you. Except payroll is a consideration. Our payroll is capped at 200M. If we hadn't made the trade, we would have been able to lock down Snell to an extension. Now we are going to be paying Soto and Bogaerts, instead of resigning/extending Snell and Kim.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Sept 25, 2023 20:34:05 GMT -8
Soto just put up one of the best seasons for a Padre outfielder in team history. The trade made perfect sense. You're not evaluating anything in a one year window, especially when it comes to a player of Soto's caliber. Payroll wasn't a consideration then and it won't be a consideration in a Soto extension. Prospects are commodities, they are meant to be used to target an established player. Every GM in baseball makes that trade 100 out of 100 times, I promise you. Except payroll is a consideration. Our payroll is capped at 200M. If we hadn't made the trade, we would have been able to lock down Snell to an extension. Now we are going to be paying Soto and Bogaerts, instead of resigning/extending Snell and Kim. There's a salary cap in baseball? How long have I been asleep for...
|
|
|
Post by docmm on Sept 25, 2023 20:40:59 GMT -8
I HATE that managers are so damn locked in on L-R match-ups. How the hell does Melvin let Choi bat in the 9th with the tying run on 3rd, leading run on 2nd with 1 out? Choi has batted 31 times as a Padre and he still in hitless!!!! 31 ABs!!!!! Why wouldn't you pinch hit with Campusano or at least Cooper? I know Campusano is hurt but he's still a better hitter than that stiff Choi!
Poor Snell has had one of the best seasons in Padre history, 2.25 ERA and 234 Ks, and all he's got to show for it is a 14-9 record. He's had terrible run support and I wouldn't come back here if I were him.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Sept 25, 2023 20:56:32 GMT -8
I HATE that managers are so damn locked in on L-R match-ups. How the hell does Melvin let Choi bat in the 9th with the tying run on 3rd, leading run on 2nd with 1 out? Choi has batted 31 times as a Padre and he still in hitless!!!! 31 ABs!!!!! Why wouldn't you pinch hit with Campusano or at least Cooper? I know Campusano is hurt but he's still a better hitter than that stiff Choi! Poor Snell has had one of the best seasons in Padre history, 2.25 ERA and 234 Ks, and all he's got to show for it is a 14-9 record. He's had terrible run support and I wouldn't come back here if I were him. You think he's not going to come back because he only won 14 games?
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Sept 25, 2023 21:41:50 GMT -8
Soto just put up one of the best seasons for a Padre outfielder in team history. The trade made perfect sense. You're not evaluating anything in a one year window, especially when it comes to a player of Soto's caliber. Payroll wasn't a consideration then and it won't be a consideration in a Soto extension. Prospects are commodities, they are meant to be used to target an established player. Every GM in baseball makes that trade 100 out of 100 times, I promise you. Except payroll is a consideration. Our payroll is capped at 200M. If we hadn't made the trade, we would have been able to lock down Snell to an extension. Now we are going to be paying Soto and Bogaerts, instead of resigning/extending Snell and Kim. Payroll will be reduced, but I doubt $200 million will be the limit. I fully expect it to drop below the current level.
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Sept 25, 2023 21:49:24 GMT -8
I HATE that managers are so damn locked in on L-R match-ups. How the hell does Melvin let Choi bat in the 9th with the tying run on 3rd, leading run on 2nd with 1 out? Choi has batted 31 times as a Padre and he still in hitless!!!! 31 ABs!!!!! Why wouldn't you pinch hit with Campusano or at least Cooper? I know Campusano is hurt but he's still a better hitter than that stiff Choi! Poor Snell has had one of the best seasons in Padre history, 2.25 ERA and 234 Ks, and all he's got to show for it is a 14-9 record. He's had terrible run support and I wouldn't come back here if I were him. Don't think the Padres can afford him, and Hader won't be back unless he takes a discount. Don't see him doing that. Suarez has a multi-year deal, and will probably close next season.
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Sept 25, 2023 21:54:10 GMT -8
And...my tragic numbers are wrong. It was 1 for both AZ and the Cubs. The 1 (loss) was achieved tonight.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Sept 25, 2023 22:00:10 GMT -8
And...my tragic numbers are wrong. It was 1 for both AZ and the Cubs. The 1 (loss) was achieved tonight. The only scenario available now is a 3 way tie at 82-80. Padres would win the tiebreaker.
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Sept 25, 2023 22:11:20 GMT -8
And...my tragic numbers are wrong. It was 1 for both AZ and the Cubs. The 1 (loss) was achieved tonight. The only scenario available now is a 3 way tie at 82-80. Padres would win the tiebreaker. Both the Cubs and D-Backs hold the tiebreaker, as they both won the season series vs the Padres.
|
|