Where we stand re: the Iranian nuclear program.

[AztecWilliam]

It's not looking good, friends. Really it is not. Not only is the U.S. effort to isolate Iran not working, it looks to me like the administration is getting close to admitting that very fact. Don't take this as a bash Obama campaign. I'm not sure what else could be done without making the Middle East situation much worse than it already is.

Well, we could blockade Iran and deny it the refined gasoline without which the Iranian economy tanks. There are other such actions, but most of them amount to acts of war, and the diplomacy-favoring Obama administration is very unlikely to do anything like that under the best of circumstances, and certainly not alone.

Oh, yes, here is a new development you may have missed. Russia has agreed to sell the Iranians some really effective new anti-aircraft missiles. If the Mullahs get those, anybody trying an air campaign designed to cripple the Iranian nuclear program would suffer huge loses.

Anyway, here is as good an evaluation of where we are with respect to this dilemma as I've read.

www.suntimes.com/news/huntley/2298712,CST-EDT-hunt21.article

AzWm

[aztecwin]

Unless Obama shows some real strong imaginative leadership, it looks like Israel will have to take the very high risk approach of trying to take the facilities out. I just don't think that Obama and the folks he has chosen to advise him have the capacity to show the world any creative direction.

[AztecWilliam]

There is a truth about dealing with international bad actors which is often, perhaps deliberately, forgotten. That truth is as follows: slap the bastards down as hard and as soon as possible. If you don't, expect to have a much harder time dealing with them later on. And you will have to deal with them, sooner or later.

When he was still relatively weak, Hitler decided to break international agreements by sending a small military force into the demilitarized Rhineland. Had the French taken swift and decisive action, the whole course of history in the 20Th Century would probably have been changed. (See the attached portion of the Wikipedia article which follows below.)

Of course, we all know the the French did nothing and Hitler was emboldened. Had Pres. Carter asked for a declaration of war against Iran upon the talking of our embassy, it's quite possible that the present soup we are marinating in could have been avoided. It would have been easy then to blockade Iran and bring down the mullahs. It is still possible today to try that, but the stakes and risks are commensurately higher.

The Left screams bloody murder when anyone suggests that force may have to be used in a given situation. They are certainly correct to be concerned, since it's easier to get into a war than to get out. On the other hand, inaction early on can lead to trouble as well. Worse trouble.

Right now the Iranians know that Obama is almost certainly not going to use force. He will, they believe, and I think they are correct, simply find a face-saving way to explain to the world that the thing he said was unacceptable was acceptable after all.

We have let this problem go unresolved for far too long. Is it too late to do anything but wring our hands?

AzWm

Regarding the German military occupation of the Rhineland in 1936. From Wikipedia:

On the 12th of February Hitler informed his War Minister, Field Marshal Werner von Blomberg, of his intentions and asked the head of the Army, General Werner von Fritsch, how long it would take to transport a few infantry battalions and an artillery battery into the Rhineland. Fritsch answered that it would take three days organization but he was in favour of negotiation as he believed that the German Army was in no state for armed combat with the French Army.[8] The Chief of the General Staff, General Ludwig Beck warned Hitler that the German Army would be unable to successfully defend Germany against a possible retaliatory French attack.[9] Hitler reassured Fritsch that he would ensure that the German forces would leave at once if the French intervened militarily to halt their advance.

Germans close to the situation later stated that had Hitler been forced to back down, his regime might well have fallen. Remember, Hitler was just then beginning to feel his oats. The German Army still had a measure of independance. Just a few years latter all that had changed and Hitler was in full control. By then only a horrible world war could stop him.

[aztecwin]

All quite true. The lack of any decisive leadership just makes thing worse. We will have to face the issue soon enough, but it should be on our terms and not just a belated reaction forced upon us in support of Israel.