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Post by sdsuball on Aug 20, 2022 16:57:07 GMT -8
www.reddit.com/r/Padres/comments/wticae/well_this_explains_everything/If we are willing to spend buka bucks on Tatis, Machado, Soto, then we should have a bigger analytics department as well. Seems like low hanging fruit, small price but big reward to expand the Padres analytics department. Rays, Dodgers, and Yankees as the biggest analytics departments, big surprise...
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Post by junior on Aug 20, 2022 19:56:39 GMT -8
This is an organizational decision, and it's not a good one. But they've gotta cut corners somewhere when they're throwing all their money chasing players who can't hit. LOL. And with all these statistically superior players, they might just beat the system if they had a better analytics staff to guide them through a sequence! Some of this stuff just can't be made up, can it…
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2022 14:11:23 GMT -8
From Dennis Lin’s mailbag today :
When will Preller get with the times and build a robust, progressive analytics department to fix a broken player development system? We’ve learned that it’s not the manager’s fault and it’s not talent deficiency at the major-league level, so what else could it possibly be? — Ian H.
The Padres field one of the smaller research and development departments in the majors. Under Preller, they have been scouting-centric and less data-reliant than most. As long as Preller is around, they probably will continue this way. The GM has always been a scout at heart, and there might be some benefits to zigging when most clubs are devoting much of their resources to mining the smallest analytical advantages. That said, the results of the past several seasons certainly suggest a change in approach might be warranted.
Even if the Padres increase their R&D investment, however, it might not lead to a major shift in thinking. According to people around the organization, Preller has tightened his inner circle, and some believe the front office prefers to use analytics to confirm preexisting beliefs rather than the other way around. (Former special assistant Dave Cameron voluntarily left the organization last year after sources said his influence had waned. It should be noted that, as with any executive, not all of Cameron’s player recommendations panned out.)
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Post by azson on Aug 29, 2022 14:15:16 GMT -8
I know it won’t happen after the Soto deal – but if this team doesn’t make the playoffs someone’s head should roll – and the only logical head at this point is AJP.
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Post by survalli on Aug 29, 2022 14:41:29 GMT -8
From Dennis Lin’s mailbag today : When will Preller get with the times and build a robust, progressive analytics department to fix a broken player development system? We’ve learned that it’s not the manager’s fault and it’s not talent deficiency at the major-league level, so what else could it possibly be? — Ian H. The Padres field one of the smaller research and development departments in the majors. Under Preller, they have been scouting-centric and less data-reliant than most. As long as Preller is around, they probably will continue this way. The GM has always been a scout at heart, and there might be some benefits to zigging when most clubs are devoting much of their resources to mining the smallest analytical advantages. That said, the results of the past several seasons certainly suggest a change in approach might be warranted. Even if the Padres increase their R&D investment, however, it might not lead to a major shift in thinking. According to people around the organization, Preller has tightened his inner circle, and some believe the front office prefers to use analytics to confirm preexisting beliefs rather than the other way around. (Former special assistant Dave Cameron voluntarily left the organization last year after sources said his influence had waned. It should be noted that, as with any executive, not all of Cameron’s player recommendations panned out.) really surprised by these comments, i thought these guys were heavily invested in analytics. if they want to be the best, they need to hire away from other teams in the same way they trade for superstars
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 29, 2022 15:09:23 GMT -8
From Dennis Lin’s mailbag today : When will Preller get with the times and build a robust, progressive analytics department to fix a broken player development system? We’ve learned that it’s not the manager’s fault and it’s not talent deficiency at the major-league level, so what else could it possibly be? — Ian H. The Padres field one of the smaller research and development departments in the majors. Under Preller, they have been scouting-centric and less data-reliant than most. As long as Preller is around, they probably will continue this way. The GM has always been a scout at heart, and there might be some benefits to zigging when most clubs are devoting much of their resources to mining the smallest analytical advantages. That said, the results of the past several seasons certainly suggest a change in approach might be warranted. Even if the Padres increase their R&D investment, however, it might not lead to a major shift in thinking. According to people around the organization, Preller has tightened his inner circle, and some believe the front office prefers to use analytics to confirm preexisting beliefs rather than the other way around. (Former special assistant Dave Cameron voluntarily left the organization last year after sources said his influence had waned. It should be noted that, as with any executive, not all of Cameron’s player recommendations panned out.) really surprised by these comments, i thought these guys were heavily invested in analytics. if they want to be the best, they need to hire away from other teams in the same way they trade for superstars The idea of "heavily invested" is relative. They have capable bodies in place and their primary guys have come from analytically heavy organizations. They are still a scouting based team, though.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2022 15:29:34 GMT -8
really surprised by these comments, i thought these guys were heavily invested in analytics. if they want to be the best, they need to hire away from other teams in the same way they trade for superstars The idea of "heavily invested" is relative. They have capable bodies in place and their primary guys have come from analytically heavy organizations. They are still a scouting based team, though. Hmm. Maybe just one reason LAD can take a Tyler Anderson cast off and make him a damned near Cy candidate and SD has so many imports that don’t make the grade. Too simplistic ? Yeah, probably.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 29, 2022 15:50:57 GMT -8
The idea of "heavily invested" is relative. They have capable bodies in place and their primary guys have come from analytically heavy organizations. They are still a scouting based team, though. Hmm. Maybe just one reason LAD can take a Tyler Anderson cast off and make him a damned near Cy candidate and SD has so many imports that don’t make the grade. Too simplistic ? Yeah, probably. LA has a massive R&D advantage with Guggenheim's purchase of the team. Their data, engineering, analytics, biomechanics and other departments are extremely well developed. Just more resources to work with, combined with their player development staff. The Padres aren't capable of running a department at that size.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 29, 2022 21:32:21 GMT -8
Hmm. Maybe just one reason LAD can take a Tyler Anderson cast off and make him a damned near Cy candidate and SD has so many imports that don’t make the grade. Too simplistic ? Yeah, probably. LA has a massive R&D advantage with Guggenheim's purchase of the team. Their data, engineering, analytics, biomechanics and other departments are extremely well developed. Just more resources to work with, combined with their player development staff. The Padres aren't capable of running a department at that size. Sure but the Dodgers have 31 people in their Analytics department to our 12? How much extra money is that per year to match the Dodgers? 19 people at an average of what, 150k? About 3 million dollars?3 million dollars is chump change compared to our payroll...
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Post by junior on Aug 29, 2022 22:32:40 GMT -8
It's all about priorities. Apparently, a robust analytics team isn't their priority right now.
Perhaps they should increase its priority given the past few years' data …
And yes, if they crap out over the next 30 days, someone high up in the organization probably needs to move on…
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 30, 2022 1:15:28 GMT -8
It's all about priorities. Apparently, a robust analytics team isn't their priority right now. Perhaps they should increase its priority given the past few years' data … And yes, if they crap out over the next 30 days, someone high up in the organization probably needs to move on… Well it's like, if lets say having a bigger analytics department was worth 1 more WAR. Paying 3 million for one more win is an affordable price to pay! If it's worth 2 WAR, then 3 million is a steal for 2 wins! In another post on Soto, when we were talking about potential contract extensions, wasn't the price 8 million per WAR that Soto provides in the hypothetical contract extension?
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 30, 2022 6:43:31 GMT -8
LA has a massive R&D advantage with Guggenheim's purchase of the team. Their data, engineering, analytics, biomechanics and other departments are extremely well developed. Just more resources to work with, combined with their player development staff. The Padres aren't capable of running a department at that size. Sure but the Dodgers have 31 people in their Analytics department to our 12? How much extra money is that per year to match the Dodgers? 19 people at an average of what, 150k? About 3 million dollars?3 million dollars is chump change compared to our payroll... It's not just the number of the people.
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Post by junior on Aug 30, 2022 12:25:30 GMT -8
Obviously, there can be 31 clueless clowns and that wouldn't make any difference. However, it does seem like the Padres could find a few more clued in baseball folks to scour the stats. But if the conjecture about AJP and his focus on scouting can be believed, then it's clearer why the money flows to 31 scouts rather than 31 analysts.
There's probably a better balance, but still, if the organizational belief is that they can scout their way into better trades and better prospects and by extension better players and better W-L records, then it still wouldn't matter if they did get 31 expert analysts in house. They'd still have limited affect on the overall program. The limitations come from the belief system.
Successful teams have a "Dodgers way" or a "Yankees way" or an "Astros way"… Is there a Padres way? Doesn't seem to be, besides stocking up on prospects, making trades, and hoping for the best when they get to the show.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 30, 2022 12:39:58 GMT -8
Obviously, there can be 31 clueless clowns and that wouldn't make any difference. However, it does seem like the Padres could find a few more clued in baseball folks to scour the stats. But if the conjecture about AJP and his focus on scouting can be believed, then it's clearer why the money flows to 31 scouts rather than 31 analysts. There's probably a better balance, but still, if the organizational belief is that they can scout their way into better trades and better prospects and by extension better players and better W-L records, then it still wouldn't matter if they did get 31 expert analysts in house. They'd still have limited affect on the overall program. The limitations come from the belief system. Successful teams have a "Dodgers way" or a "Yankees way" or an "Astros way"… Is there a Padres way? Doesn't seem to be, besides stocking up on prospects, making trades, and hoping for the best when they get to the show. They are and will continue to be a scouting heavy team under Preller. Good process works in different methodologies.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 30, 2022 15:42:02 GMT -8
Sure but the Dodgers have 31 people in their Analytics department to our 12? How much extra money is that per year to match the Dodgers? 19 people at an average of what, 150k? About 3 million dollars?3 million dollars is chump change compared to our payroll... It's not just the number of the people. I hear you, and I get that the Padres a scouting focused organization, but you can still combine data with scouting to get the most out the players that you have.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 30, 2022 16:22:09 GMT -8
It's not just the number of the people. I hear you, and I get that the Padres a scouting focused organization, but you can still combine data with scouting to get the most out the players that you have. They have. It's just not that simple.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 30, 2022 18:57:57 GMT -8
I hear you, and I get that the Padres a scouting focused organization, but you can still combine data with scouting to get the most out the players that you have. They have. It's just not that simple. Fwiw I believe that being a scouting focused organization can work. The Padres have made good decisions in the draft and with their international signings. I just wonder if/how the Padres can improve as an organization. I don't have that much knowledge on the inner workings of the Padres, and I know that you're knowledgeable on that topic Ryan, so I believe you when you say that it's complicated to develop an analytics department and integrate it into the organizational philosophy.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 30, 2022 20:31:57 GMT -8
They have. It's just not that simple. Fwiw I believe that being a scouting focused organization can work. The Padres have made good decisions in the draft and with their international signings. I just wonder if/how the Padres can improve as an organization. I don't have that much knowledge on the inner workings of the Padres, and I know that you're knowledgeable on that topic Ryan, so I believe you when you say that it's complicated to develop an analytics department and integrate it into the organizational philosophy. It is complicated in the sense that the size of the department is just one variable. Guys from inside the organization like Preston Mattingly have been plucked by other organizations (Mattingly isn't an analytics guy by nature, but he's highly regarded) - They've made strides in blending information and data. It's just not an overnight process.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 31, 2022 7:38:00 GMT -8
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Post by sdsuball on Sept 11, 2022 20:16:20 GMT -8
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