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Post by The Aztec Panther on Aug 2, 2022 17:20:06 GMT -8
OK, so we've got the most highly regarded player of the last couple years coming to San Diego. But he's only signed through 2024, and we gave up a TON to get him. Players that could have come in handy if we don't have Soto beyond 2024.
So can the Padres get it done? Is it even possible? And if they have the ability to pay that kind of money, will they be able to pay him enough to forego free agency? Or if they can't get him to forego free agency, can they win the bidding war?
This is going to be a big deal for the 2025 season and beyond.
Is Soto a purchase, or just a 2.3 season lease?
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 2, 2022 17:23:53 GMT -8
He's already turned down a boat load of money, and if he does well heading into 2024, I can't even imagine what his asking price will be. My vote would be, they'll obviously try, but I'm skeptical that they'll be able to with the Dodgers, and Yankees lurking out there.
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 2, 2022 17:26:44 GMT -8
OK, so we've got the most highly regarded player of the last couple years coming to San Diego. But he's only signed through 2024, and we gave up a TON to get him. Players that could have come in handy if we don't have Soto beyond 2024. So can the Padres get it done? Is it even possible? And if they have the ability to pay that kind of money, will they be able to pay him enough to forego free agency? Or if they can't get him to forego free agency, can they win the bidding war? This is going to be a big deal for the 2025 season and beyond. Is Soto a purchase, or just a 2.3 season lease? My vote would be, they'll try, but I'm skeptical that they'll be able to get it done. What vote does that fall under?
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 2, 2022 17:32:35 GMT -8
OK, so we've got the most highly regarded player of the last couple years coming to San Diego. But he's only signed through 2024, and we gave up a TON to get him. Players that could have come in handy if we don't have Soto beyond 2024. So can the Padres get it done? Is it even possible? And if they have the ability to pay that kind of money, will they be able to pay him enough to forego free agency? Or if they can't get him to forego free agency, can they win the bidding war? This is going to be a big deal for the 2025 season and beyond. Is Soto a purchase, or just a 2.3 season lease? Did you vote on your own poll?
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Aug 2, 2022 17:53:23 GMT -8
OK, so we've got the most highly regarded player of the last couple years coming to San Diego. But he's only signed through 2024, and we gave up a TON to get him. Players that could have come in handy if we don't have Soto beyond 2024. So can the Padres get it done? Is it even possible? And if they have the ability to pay that kind of money, will they be able to pay him enough to forego free agency? Or if they can't get him to forego free agency, can they win the bidding war? This is going to be a big deal for the 2025 season and beyond. Is Soto a purchase, or just a 2.3 season lease? Did you vote on your own poll? Not yet.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Aug 2, 2022 17:53:54 GMT -8
OK, so we've got the most highly regarded player of the last couple years coming to San Diego. But he's only signed through 2024, and we gave up a TON to get him. Players that could have come in handy if we don't have Soto beyond 2024. So can the Padres get it done? Is it even possible? And if they have the ability to pay that kind of money, will they be able to pay him enough to forego free agency? Or if they can't get him to forego free agency, can they win the bidding war? This is going to be a big deal for the 2025 season and beyond. Is Soto a purchase, or just a 2.3 season lease? My vote would be, they'll try, but I'm skeptical that they'll be able to get it done. What vote does that fall under? They can't.
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 2, 2022 18:04:02 GMT -8
My vote would be, they'll try, but I'm skeptical that they'll be able to get it done. What vote does that fall under? They can't. I think there's a chance, though.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 2, 2022 18:10:28 GMT -8
To put this to bed: They absolutely can. Money comes off the books in short order. Manny's deal will be half completed by next season. They don't have a ton of major commitments going forward (Myers and Hosmer off the books, Darvish and Snell will be free agents after 2023) Soto didn't turn down a lot of money, he turned down a poor AAV deal that was well beneath his worth. It was a lazy and pathetic effort by the Nats.
Peter Seidler has spent and will continue to spend. He believes. He wants this city to win a championship. That's why you make historically unprecedented moves like this. A trio of Tatis, Soto and Machado is arguably the best in the league and you have them for three seasons, at an absolute minimum.
It takes an absolutely crazy GM to pull off insanely creative deals (Trust me when I tell you that this process was extremely complicated and was filled with concessions on both sides) and nobody thought this could get done until yesterday, outside of this front office.
To be blunt: You do not give up access to the prospect capital they gave up if you have zero desire to extend Soto beyond 2024. That's already been decided. It's likely one of the reasons Soto landed here in the first place. They will extend him.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Aug 2, 2022 18:39:47 GMT -8
To put this to bed: They absolutely can. Money comes off the books in short order. Manny's deal will be half completed by next season. They don't have a ton of major commitments going forward (Myers and Hosmer off the books, Darvish and Snell will be free agents after 2023) Soto didn't turn down a lot of money, he turned down a poor AAV deal that was well beneath his worth. It was a lazy and pathetic effort by the Nats. Peter Seidler has spent and will continue to spend. He believes. He wants this city to win a championship. That's why you make historically unprecedented moves like this. A trio of Tatis, Soto and Machado is arguably the best in the league and you have them for three seasons, at an absolute minimum. It takes an absolutely crazy GM to pull off insanely creative deals (Trust me when I tell you that this process was extremely complicated and was filled with concessions on both sides) and nobody thought this could get done until yesterday, outside of this front office. To be blunt: You do not give up access to the prospect capital they gave up if you have zero desire to extend Soto beyond 2024. That's already been decided. It's likely one of the reasons Soto landed here in the first place. They will extend him. I hope so. I'd love to see that.
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Post by junior on Aug 2, 2022 20:46:19 GMT -8
Would love to have been a fly on the wall when the Hosmer situation flared up… I thought I read somewhere - quite recently - that he was told he wasn't going to be moved.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Aug 2, 2022 21:12:30 GMT -8
Would love to have been a fly on the wall when the Hosmer situation flared up… I thought I read somewhere - quite recently - that he was told he wasn't going to be moved. Yeah, I read that somewhere, too. They may not have gotten the go-ahead to go after Soto and Bell until after they told Hosmer they weren't going to move him. Maybe.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 2, 2022 23:18:22 GMT -8
Here is my guess on what would get it done for a Soto extension in the offseason:
$675M | 15 Year Extension |45M AAV
This would dwarf Trout's 426.5M deal, and has a slightly higher AAV then Max Scherzer's 43.3M AAV on his 130M | 3 Year deal.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 3, 2022 6:34:17 GMT -8
Would love to have been a fly on the wall when the Hosmer situation flared up… I thought I read somewhere - quite recently - that he was told he wasn't going to be moved. Yeah, I read that somewhere, too. They may not have gotten the go-ahead to go after Soto and Bell until after they told Hosmer they weren't going to move him. Maybe. That was from Kevin Acee, who put out some... unprofessional things in the last few days.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 3, 2022 6:34:41 GMT -8
Here is my guess on what would get it done for a Soto extension in the offseason: $675M | 15 Year Extension |45M AAV This would dwarf Trout's 426.5M deal, and has a slightly higher AAV then Max Scherzer's 43.3M AAV on his 130M | 3 Year deal. Not going to be 15 years.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 3, 2022 9:22:52 GMT -8
Here is my guess on what would get it done for a Soto extension in the offseason: $675M | 15 Year Extension |45M AAV This would dwarf Trout's 426.5M deal, and has a slightly higher AAV then Max Scherzer's 43.3M AAV on his 130M | 3 Year deal. Not going to be 15 years. What do you think it will look like?
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 3, 2022 9:44:07 GMT -8
Not going to be 15 years. What do you think it will look like? The Padres won't sign anyone beyond age-35. Manny's deal? 35. Fernando's deal? 35. 12/480 or thereabouts depending on incentives and escalator clauses.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Aug 3, 2022 10:14:41 GMT -8
What do you think it will look like? The Padres won't sign anyone beyond age-35. Manny's deal? 35. Fernando's deal? 35. 12/480 or thereabouts depending on incentives and escalator clauses. I'd love to see that happen. 12/480 would be ridiculously expensive, but if he's the player everyone says he is it would be worth it.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 3, 2022 10:29:02 GMT -8
The Padres won't sign anyone beyond age-35. Manny's deal? 35. Fernando's deal? 35. 12/480 or thereabouts depending on incentives and escalator clauses. I'd love to see that happen. 12/480 would be ridiculously expensive, but if he's the player everyone says he is it would be worth it. I actually think it's relatively fair given his skillset. One WAR is roughly equal to 8 million dollars. He's probably a mortal lock to produce around 60 (factoring in the defensive issues) which puts it right on the number.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 3, 2022 11:07:36 GMT -8
Winners 1. San Diego Padres (+6.8% playoffs, +3.5% World Series) If you’re surprised by this one, then you clearly hadn’t followed any of the news over the last week. And were out of internet range. With a box on your head and your fingers in your ears. And a brass band was marching around you 24 hours a day, playing all your least favorite Sousa tunes.
Adding Soto to the roster would have been enough to put the Padres here single-tradedly, but they also made a significant upgrade at first base by bringing in Josh Bell, and even Brandon Drury is a useful role player. ZiPS actually thinks that head-to-head, the Padres are a stronger team than the Dodgers! Actually catching Los Angeles remains a nearly insurmountable challenge of math, but the Friars have strong odds of avoiding last season’s disappointing denouement.
I hope Erik sees this...
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Post by junior on Aug 3, 2022 11:29:21 GMT -8
Would love to have been a fly on the wall when the Hosmer situation flared up… I thought I read somewhere - quite recently - that he was told he wasn't going to be moved. Yeah, I read that somewhere, too. They may not have gotten the go-ahead to go after Soto and Bell until after they told Hosmer they weren't going to move him. Maybe. Read it again this morning. Apparently he got deked big time on that one.
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