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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 28, 2020 5:47:25 GMT -8
Mobile World Congress in Barcelona was cancelled. The Milan Furniture Show. Rugby matches. Pilgrimage sites in Mecca and Medina. Facebook developers conference. Carnivals in Nice and Venice. And, of course, organizers in Tokyo are now saying that if the Covid-19 outbreak isn't contained by mid-May, the 2020 Summer Games, slated for July/August, will be axed.
And right now there are students under quarantine at UC Davis and two Sacramento-area community colleges.
Could it be that Crazy Joe wasn't so crazy after all? Is it possible that his decade-long rants about the coming bird flu pandemic were right?
Could it be just SDSU's luck that the NCAA Tournament at some point gets washed out?
It sounds far fetched -- crazy even -- but is it time to start pondering the possibilities?
Asking for a friend.
Mod's Note - let's not have a thread title that could potentially result in an unfortunate defamation action.
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Post by goaztecs on Feb 28, 2020 5:57:10 GMT -8
I was wondering the same. Let’s hope not. Most likely not since there is so much money at stake.
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 28, 2020 6:21:44 GMT -8
Most likely not since there is so much money at stake. I don't think that's going to be a key criteria. The Summer Games dwarf the NCAA Tournament in $$$ generated and the chances are very good that they'll be cancelled.
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Post by chris92065 on Feb 28, 2020 6:39:50 GMT -8
if The NCAA is canceled, then baseball, nascar, nba playoffs, malls and movie theatres should be canceled as well.
Any place where people congregate would be considered for cancelation.
It’s just conjecture.
I have it on good authority that this is just a type of flu and a vaccination is coming soon.
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Post by halfnip on Feb 28, 2020 7:13:16 GMT -8
All I can say is it’s very real out here in Japan. Almost every event involving a crowd is getting cancelled and the government just announced yesterday that all elementary, middle and high schools in the country will be shut down from 3/4 until the kids come back from spring break in mid April. How working parents are going to deal with this is going to be challenging, but this is either a knee jerk reaction or there’s convincing data causing concern initially triggering this announcement.
The government totally botched not shutting down entry from China before CNY and completely were utterly careless in their handling of the cruise ship though. Now idiots are so concerned about lack of imports from China so they’re buying up all the masks, wipes and now toilet paper if you can believe that. And this country invented the fancy ass spraying/drying toilets. Who needs toilet paper right?
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Post by Texaz on Feb 28, 2020 7:25:01 GMT -8
Or do they play the tournament without fans. The TV contract is much bigger than ticket sales. Three Italian soccer matches were played behind close doors.
“ The Italian government has banned all sports events in six regions up to and including Sunday, although top-flight Serie A soccer matches can be played behind close doors.”
This could be a positive if we a 1 seed in the East.
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 28, 2020 7:36:27 GMT -8
I have it on good authority that this is just a type of flu and a vaccination is coming soon. Not true. Flu is caused by the influenza virus. Coronavirus is a newly formed virus that likely jumped from wild animals into the human population. Human immune systems are not acclimated or prepared for this novel virus. Unlike the flu, the coronavirus is a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pathogen. As for a vaccine, the CDC said yesterday that any vaccine is a year or more away from development and deployment. Having said that, scientists never did develop a vaccine for the first SARS epidemic that broke out in China and a few other countries in the early 2000s before quickly dissipating. It doesn't appear we'll be so lucky this time.
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Post by North County Aztec on Feb 28, 2020 7:49:05 GMT -8
The virus was made in China so it won't last long.
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Post by chris92065 on Feb 28, 2020 7:50:46 GMT -8
I have it on good authority that this is just a type of flu and a vaccination is coming soon. Not true. Flu is caused by the influenza virus. Coronavirus is a newly formed virus that likely jumped from wild animals into the human population. Human immune systems are not acclimated or prepared for this novel virus. Unlike the flu, the coronavirus is a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pathogen. As for a vaccine, the CDC said yesterday that any vaccine is a year or more away from development and deployment. Having said that, scientists never did develop a vaccine for the first SARS epidemic that broke out in China and a few other countries in the early 2000s before quickly dissipating. It doesn't appear we'll be so lucky this time. I disagree with the 1 or more years prediction by the cdc but whatever. Bottom line is the seasonal flu is just as potent virus and the traditional methods to protect yourself are just as effective: Wash your hands routinely Use Lysol to disinfect your house Use disinfectant wipes on all surfaces If you have a fever and flu like symptoms see your doctor and then stay home. Get vaccinated
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Post by aardvark on Feb 28, 2020 8:11:46 GMT -8
All I can say is it’s very real out here in Japan. Almost every event involving a crowd is getting cancelled and the government just announced yesterday that all elementary, middle and high schools in the country will be shut down from 3/4 until the kids come back from spring break in mid April. How working parents are going to deal with this is going to be challenging, but this is either a knee jerk reaction or there’s convincing data causing concern initially triggering this announcement. The government totally botched not shutting down entry from China before CNY and completely were utterly careless in their handling of the cruise ship though. Now idiots are so concerned about lack of imports from China so they’re buying up all the masks, wipes and now toilet paper if you can believe that. And this country invented the fancy ass spraying/drying toilets. Who needs toilet paper right? Thoroughbred horse racing will continue in Japan, but they will race on Saturday in front of an empty grandstand, as spectators will not be allowed into the facilities.
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Post by sleepy on Feb 28, 2020 8:20:34 GMT -8
I better see "M.D." after your name if you aren't linking directly to a credible source on this topic. Otherwise, it's $#!+.
Sleepy, Non-M.D.
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Post by aztecfanatic on Feb 28, 2020 8:30:38 GMT -8
I had no idea of the magnitude of these events being cancelled. It's better to be extra careful though and help protect all the people we can. Be as safe as possible; hopefully a vaccine is coming.
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Post by biotec on Feb 28, 2020 8:32:58 GMT -8
You don't have to be a doctor to know about bio stuff.
The SARS outbreak in 2003 had a mortality rate of 7-8% and this Coronavirus has a mortality rate of about 2%. Those most at risk are the oldest in the population. The seasonal flu will kill and sicken more people in the US, by far, than this Coronavirus. Coronavirus is nothing new, only this strain. There's no way to develop and mass produce a vaccine in time for this outbreak. We pretty much know the components of the seasonal flu every year and so have a head start and can make educated guesses on next year's strain to create and mass produce a vaccine, yet mostly these vaccines are only mildly effective. It's very challenging for a novel strain like this COVID-19.
The biggest concern should be financial. Sure, there will be a drop in spending and production since China has closed some factories and people, especially in China, are cutting back on things like travel and entertainment. But the biggest concern is the financial institutions who have been levered to the hilt in search of yield after years and years of quantitative easing and low interest rates. Stuff like mortgage backed securities that sound good - but a diversified pile of poo is still a pile of poo. Should be interesting what becomes of this in terms of the economy.
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 28, 2020 8:51:44 GMT -8
You don't have to be a doctor to know about bio stuff. The SARS outbreak in 2003 had a mortality rate of 7-8% and this Coronavirus has a mortality rate of about 2%. True, re the SARS outbreak, but the data so far regarding the coronavirus is squishy at best. The countries where the virus has been spreading most -- China, Iran, et. al., aren't known for their transparency. And it's highly likely that deaths are being underreported. The CDC has said it's unsure what the death rate is. The death rate for the flu is about 0.1% for every person infected, according to the CDC. The institution said yesterday that the coronavirus could be 20x more deadly (putting it at 2%.) Those most at risk are the oldest in the population. Not entirely true. Actually, SARS viruses differ from influenza strains in that, yes, the old and infirm are highly susceptible to contracting and even dying from the pathogen. But unlike influenza, SARS kills plenty of young, healthy people, which is what first alarmed medical professionals and what makes this epidemic more troubling than the typical seasonal flu outbreak. The seasonal flu will kill and sicken more people in the US, by far, than this Coronavirus. True. Some 58 million Americans contracted the flu in 2017/18, according to the CDC. However, the death rate was fairly low, though the absolute numbers were high (about 60k died). That's where the coronavirus differs. If 58 million Americans fall ill from coronavirus, there would be over 1 million deaths. Coronavirus is nothing new, only this strain. Not true. The SARS virus had never before been seen in a human population until 2003. It's a novel virus. www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2003/pr31/en/There's no way to develop and mass produce a vaccine in time for this outbreak. We pretty much know the components of the seasonal flu every year and so have a head start and can make educated guesses on next year's strain to create and mass produce a vaccine, yet mostly these vaccines are only mildly effective. It's very challenging for a novel strain like this COVID-19. Very true. A vaccine isn't imminent and may never be developed. The biggest concern should be financial. Sure, there will be a drop in spending and production since China has closed some factories and people, especially in China, are cutting back on things like travel and entertainment. But the biggest concern is the financial institutions who have been levered to the hilt in search of yield after years and years of quantitative easing and low interest rates. Stuff like mortgage backed securities that sound good - but a diversified pile of poo is still a pile of poo. Should be interesting what becomes of this in terms of the economy. The financial fallout from this could be massive. It already is.
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Post by hoobs on Feb 28, 2020 8:53:57 GMT -8
Most likely not since there is so much money at stake. I don't think that's going to be a key criteria. The Summer Games dwarf the NCAA Tournament in $$$ generated and the chances are very good that they'll be cancelled. More likely that the Games go on, but "behind closed doors",i.e. zero attendance but still broadcast worldwide ($$$).
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Post by biotec on Feb 28, 2020 8:59:19 GMT -8
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 28, 2020 8:59:30 GMT -8
I don't think that's going to be a key criteria. The Summer Games dwarf the NCAA Tournament in $$$ generated and the chances are very good that they'll be cancelled. More likely that the Games go on, but "behind closed doors",i.e. zero attendance but still broadcast worldwide ($$$). That would be exceptionally weird.
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Post by biotec on Feb 28, 2020 9:03:38 GMT -8
One other thing: a major reason for the higher mortality rate in China is that more than 50% of the male population smokes, which puts them at a higher risk for respiratory problems.
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Post by docmm on Feb 28, 2020 9:05:32 GMT -8
More likely that the Games go on, but "behind closed doors",i.e. zero attendance but still broadcast worldwide ($$$). That would be exceptionally weird. They're already doing it in Italy with big time pro soccer games.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 28, 2020 9:50:08 GMT -8
Re: the mortality rate, there has been open skepticism expressed by multiple healthcare/infectious disease specialists over the past month. There are/were two primary reasons for this: First, there is a precedent of the PRC underreporting casualty figures during the SARS outbreak. Second, there is skepticism over the lack of variation in the mortality rate as reflected by the (daily) release of updated casualty figured by the Chinese government - it remained at exactly 2.1% for weeks on end. This is highly improbable, as in theory, the number should vary to some degree on a day-to-day basis. In addition, there is evidence to support a higher casualty count (and mortality rate). There is the anecdotal reporting of Chinese healthcare workers in Wuhan (such as this nurse's Youtube video). And on a couple different occasions, the Chinese media and tech conglomerate Tencent, which hosts a realtime data aggregation website to reflect casualty figures as they were reported by various hospitals. Twice, once in late January and again in early February, casualty figures were presented that far surpassed the official total reported by the PRC. In each instance, the numbers were replaced by "official" numbers within several hours. Here is a screenshot of one such posting by Tencent, on Feb 1: The red numbers indicate confirmed cases, the yellow suspected cases, the green represents those who have recovered, and the gray indicates the number of deaths. The disparity in the numbers is supported by some data modeling that indicates a rate of spread much closer to what was shown in those instances by Tencent than what the government is reporting. Another graphic I grabbed was from BBC back in late January: While the sample size was still small at this point in time, what I find disconcerting is the percentage of patients in critical condition as per the above figures- over 16% of the confirmed cases. There was also a release by the PRC last week that parsed the mortality rate (in mainland China) by age demographic. I don't have it readily available, but the figure for those in the 70-79 demo (my parents' age) was approx. 10%. The mortality figure for octogenarians was closer to 15%. Even by the latest figures as presented by John Hopkins' own data aggregation site, which relies on the official reporting by the PRC, the mortality rate has climbed north of 2.8%. Back in mid-Jan, when the PRC announced they had the first confirmed cases in Beijing and Shanghai, to me it seemed axiomatic that it was only a matter of time before it spread into the genpop. PEK and PVG are huge gateway airports, with multiple flights dispersing all over the world each day. And given the CDC's lagging response - they initially set up screening at five airports, of which only two were on the West Coast, thereby neglecting the pax arriving daily into SEA, SJC, PDX, and SAN (we have a daily flight to/from Tokyo). This lack of confidence in the CDC's response wasn't assuaged by the dinner I had a few months ago with a former director of the NIH, who told me firsthand that both the NIH and CDC had been experiencing 'brain drain' as many of the top scientists were leaving to accept jobs either in the private sector or with government agencies offshore, where they were not battling constant budget cuts or the lack of science-driven policy as they were from this administration. Looking downstream, there are fewer than 6,000 hospital beds in San Diego county, for a population of approx. 3 million.
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