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Post by azson on Feb 19, 2020 9:44:49 GMT -8
More importantly, if USU runs the table through the MWC championship game and finishes the season with a 26-8 record, do they make the NCAA Tourney as an at-large? And what is their final NET ranking going into the Tourney? And how does that impact SDSU in a head-to-head comparison to the Zags? Their current NET/Pom/KPI is 42/39/60 so they should be an at large if they win out except for us in the final. But we know all too well how should and the committee works. Hopefully that meltdown @bsu isn't what keeps them out.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 19, 2020 17:47:02 GMT -8
Their current NET/Pom/KPI is 42/39/60 so they should be an at large if they win out except for us in the final. But we know all too well how should and the committee works. Hopefully that meltdown @bsu isn't what keeps them out. I went in search of a gif of a bunch of old men smoking cigars in a darkly-lit back room, but realized this was probably a better fit for the selection committee:
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 19, 2020 22:11:39 GMT -8
Positioned for the stretch run (Updated after 2/19 games):
Team Still to play Probable final record & seed 1. San Diego State (15-0) (3) UNLV, Colorado State, at Nevada 18-0 #1 2. Utah State (11-5) (2) San Jose State, at New Mexico 13-5 #2 3. Nevada (10-5) (3) Fresno State, at Wyoming, SDSU 12-6 #3/4 4. Boise State (10-6) (2) New Mexico, at UNLV 11-7 #4/5 or 12-6 #3/4 5.(t) UNLV (9-6) (3) at SDSU, Boise State, at San Jose State 11-7 #4/5 or 10-8 #6 5.(t) Colorado State (9-6) (3) San Jose State, at SDSU, Air Force 11-7 #5/6 or 10-8 #6 7. New Mexico (6-9) (3) at Boise State, at Air Force, Utah State 7-11 #7/8 or 6-11 #8 8. Fresno State (6-10) (2) at Nevada, Wyoming 7-11 #7/8 9. Air Force (4-11) (3) Wyoming, New Mexico, at Colorado State 5-13 or 6-12 #9 10. San Jose State (3-12) (3) at Colorado State, at Utah State, UNLV 3-15 #10 11. Wyoming (1-14) (3) at Air Force, Nevada, at Fresno State 1-17 #11
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Post by azson on Feb 20, 2020 9:21:41 GMT -8
Positioned for the stretch run (Updated after 2/19 games): Team Still to play Probable final record & seed 1. San Diego State (15-0) (3) UNLV, Colorado State, at Nevada 18-0 #1 2. Utah State (11-5) (2) San Jose State, at New Mexico 13-5 #2 3. Nevada (10-5) (3) Fresno State, at Wyoming, SDSU 12-6 #3/4 4. Boise State (10-6) (2) New Mexico, at UNLV 11-7 #4/5 or 12-6 #3/4 5.(t) UNLV (9-6) (3) at SDSU, Boise State, at San Jose State 11-7 #4/5 or 10-8 #6 5.(t) Colorado State (9-6) (3) San Jose State, at SDSU, Air Force 11-7 #5/6 or 10-8 #6 7. New Mexico (6-9) (3) at Boise State, at Air Force, Utah State 7-11 #7/8 or 6-11 #8 8. Fresno State (6-10) (2) at Nevada, Wyoming 7-11 #7/8 9. Air Force (4-11) (3) Wyoming, New Mexico, at Colorado State 5-13 or 6-12 #9 10. San Jose State (3-12) (3) at Colorado State, at Utah State, UNLV 3-15 #10 11. Wyoming (1-14) (3) at Air Force, Nevada, at Fresno State 1-17 #11 That battle for 5th/6th is very interesting. No team has ever won the tourney playing 4 games in 4 days but of all years this might be the year that being the 6 seed wouldn’t be a bad thing, especially if you’re UNLV playing on your home floor. First and foremost, you wouldn’t play the Aztecs until the final. Second, your first game would be vs. awful WYO, against who you should be able to go up big early and then give your starters a lot of rest. Then you play the 3 seed who will most likely be UNR or BSU, both have been bad away from home. You would then most likely play USU in the semis, not ideal, but again if you’re the Rebels you’re capable of beating anyone but us on your home floor.
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Post by docmm on Feb 20, 2020 10:24:53 GMT -8
I can see Fresno State catching New Mexico and passing them for 7th. NM might lose all three games they have left. Fresno State would just have to beat Wyoming at Fresno. No matter what record Fresno has, I'd rather not face them in our first game. Beating New Mexico or Air Force at sea level would be much, much easier.
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Post by standiego on Feb 20, 2020 13:10:54 GMT -8
yes some very interesting games still to be played
For us who finishes in 8th - Lobos or Fresno ? they do have to play AFA in play in game - AFA can tire you out - and Lobos if they fall to 8th do have less bench strength
Then is it BSU , CSU , UNLV or could Nevada fall to #4 in the #4 vs #5 game - interesting that we play all 4 in the last part of the season
Then sure looks as though a much improved USU team- with a lot to play for the MW T- especially if Q is playing at full strength
Is this the year that UNLV finally uses their home court to their advantage during the MW T
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 23, 2020 15:18:23 GMT -8
Positioned for the final week of the season (Updated after 2/23 games): Team Still to play Probable final record & seed 1. San Diego State (15-1) (2) Colorado State, at Nevada 17-1 #1 (16-2 #1 if lose to Nevada) 2. Utah State (11-5) (2) San Jose State, at New Mexico 13-5 #2 (#3 if Nevada beats Aztecs) 3. Nevada (11-5) (2) at Wyoming, SDSU 12-6 #4/3 (13-5 #2 if beat Aztecs) 4. Boise State (11-6) (1) at UNLV 11-7 #5/4 or 12-6 #4 5.(t) UNLV (10-6) (2) Boise State, at San Jose State 12-6 #3/4 or 11-7 #5 5.(t) Colorado State (10-6) (2) at SDSU, Air Force 11-7 #5/6 or 10-8 #6 7. New Mexico (6-10) (2) at Air Force, Utah State 7-11 #7/8 or 6-11 #8 8. Fresno State (6-11) (1) Wyoming 7-11 #7/8 9. Air Force (4-12) (2) New Mexico, at Colorado State 4-14 or 5-13 #9 10. San Jose State (3-13) (2) at Utah State, UNLV 3-15 #10 11. Wyoming (2-14) (2) Nevada, at Fresno State 2-16 #11 4 seeds are pretty much locked in (1, 9, 10, 11) Still battles for the key 2/3, 4/5, 7/8 slots UNLV's win over us opened up a lot of possibilities in the 3/4/5 mix.
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Post by sdsuball on Feb 23, 2020 16:26:24 GMT -8
Hopefully Nevada loses at Wyoming so that UNLV can jump ahead of them for the 3 seed. Ideally UNLV is on the opposite side of the bracket so that they can get a crack at beating Utah State to boost their NET rating. Alternatively, if Utah St beats them we don't have to play against them again.
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 24, 2020 2:12:37 GMT -8
Hopefully Nevada loses at Wyoming so that UNLV can jump ahead of them for the 3 seed. Ideally UNLV is on the opposite side of the bracket so that they can get a crack at beating Utah State to boost their NET rating. Alternatively, if Utah St beats them we don't have to play against them again. If UNLV wins out (which is likely), unless Nevada beats the Aztecs, a win over Wyoming would put them in a 12-6 tie, which would go to UNLV because they hold a 1-1 record against the #1 seed (Aztecs), while we would have swept Nevada. If Nevada were to beat us, they would vault into the #2 seed over Utah State via the same tiebreaker because of the win over #1, and UNLV would be alone in 4th. Edited to correct the above statement: Nevada swept UNLV, so that takes precedence as the tiebreaker over the UNLV win over us. However, if UNLV wins out and Utah State stubs their toe at New Mexico this weekend, USU and UNLV would be tied at 12-6, and in that case, the tiebreaker would be UNLV's win over us, so there's still a chance for them to sneak in the back door to the #3 seed, just not the path I thought it was.
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 26, 2020 22:22:24 GMT -8
With One Game Left (Updated after 2/26 games): Team Still to play Probable final record & seed 1. San Diego State (16-1) (1) at Nevada 17-1 #1 (16-2 #1 if lose to Nevada) 2.(t) Utah State (12-5) (1) at New Mexico 13-5 #2 (#3 if Nevada beats Aztecs) 2.(t) Nevada (12-5) (1) SDSU 12-6 #4/3 (13-5 #2 if beat Aztecs) 4. UNLV (11-6) (1) at San Jose State 12-6 #3/4/2 or 11-7 #4 5. Boise State (11-7) (0) 11-7 #5 6. Colorado State (10-7) (1) Air Force 11-7 #6 or 10-8 #6 7.(t) Fresno State (6-11) (1) Wyoming 7-11 #7/8 or 6/12#8
7.(t) New Mexico (6-11) (1) Utah State 6-12 #8 (#7 if Fresno St. loses to Wyoming) or 7/11 #7 9. Air Force (5-12) (1) at Colorado State 5-13 #9 or 6/12 10. San Jose State (3-14) (1) UNLV 3-15 #10 11. Wyoming (2-15) (1) at Fresno State 2-16 #11 6 seeds are set (1, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11) The wild card is Nevada if they beat us. That would put them in the #2 seed, bumping Utah State down to #3, or possibly #4 if they lose to New Mexico. Assuming a win by UNLV over San Jose, if both Utah State and Nevada lose, that would vault them up to the #2 seed! A win by UNLV and a loss by either Utah State or Nevada (but not both) would move UNLV to the #3 seed. If both Utah State and Nevada both win, UNLV gets the #4 seed, regardless of whether or not they beat San Jose St. If the Fresno State/Wyoming and New Mexico/Utah State games go to form, Fresno State would have a game lead on New Mexico for the#7 seed, relegating New Mexico to the #8 seed. If both win, or both lose, I believe New Mexico would hold the tiebreaker for the #7 seed.
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Post by aztecfred on Feb 27, 2020 8:13:04 GMT -8
With One Game Left (Updated after 2/26 games): Team Still to play Probable final record & seed 1. San Diego State (16-1) (1) at Nevada 17-1 #1 (16-2 #1 if lose to Nevada) 2.(t) Utah State (12-5) (1) at New Mexico 13-5 #2 (#3 if Nevada beats Aztecs) 2.(t) Nevada (12-5) (1) SDSU 12-6 #4/3 (13-5 #2 if beat Aztecs) 4. UNLV (11-6) (1) at San Jose State 12-6 #3/4/2 or 11-7 #4 5. Boise State (11-7) (0) 11-7 #5 6. Colorado State (10-7) (1) Air Force 11-7 #6 or 10-8 #6 7.(t) Fresno State (6-11) (1) Wyoming 7-11 #7/8 or 6/12#8
7.(t) New Mexico (6-11) (1) Utah State 6-12 #8 (#7 if Fresno St. loses to Wyoming) or 7/11 #7 9. Air Force (5-12) (1) at Colorado State 5-13 #9 or 6/12 10. San Jose State (3-14) (1) UNLV 3-15 #10 11. Wyoming (2-15) (1) at Fresno State 2-16 #11 6 seeds are set (1, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11) The wild card is Nevada if they beat us. That would put them in the #2 seed, bumping Utah State down to #3, or possibly #4 if they lose to New Mexico. Assuming a win by UNLV over San Jose, if both Utah State and Nevada lose, that would vault them up to the #2 seed! A win by UNLV and a loss by either Utah State or Nevada (but not both) would move UNLV to the #3 seed. If both Utah State and Nevada both win, UNLV gets the #4 seed, regardless of whether or not they beat San Jose St. If the Fresno State/Wyoming and New Mexico/Utah State games go to form, Fresno State would have a game lead on New Mexico for the#7 seed, relegating New Mexico to the #8 seed. If both win, or both lose, I believe New Mexico would hold the tiebreaker for the #7 seed.
What is the MWC bracket looked like seed wise 1 vs ?, 2 vs ?.....
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Post by standiego on Feb 27, 2020 8:24:13 GMT -8
Play in games Wednesday
6 vs 11 Winner plays #3 on Thursday 7 vs 10 winner plays #2 8 vs 9 winner plays #1 SDSU , winner of that game plays winner of the 4 vs 5 game on Friday
Also on Thursday 4 vs 5
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Post by standiego on Feb 27, 2020 8:34:22 GMT -8
Very likely we play the Wednesday winner of the AFA #9 vs #8 New Mexico or Fresno ( what ever team that is #8 seed ) on Thursday
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Post by montymontezuma on Feb 27, 2020 9:33:19 GMT -8
With One Game Left (Updated after 2/26 games): Team Still to play Probable final record & seed 1. San Diego State (16-1) (1) at Nevada 17-1 #1 (16-2 #1 if lose to Nevada) 2.(t) Utah State (12-5) (1) at New Mexico 13-5 #2 (#3 if Nevada beats Aztecs) 2.(t) Nevada (12-5) (1) SDSU 12-6 #4/3 (13-5 #2 if beat Aztecs) 4. UNLV (11-6) (1) at San Jose State 12-6 #3/4/2 or 11-7 #4 5. Boise State (11-7) (0) 11-7 #5 6. Colorado State (10-7) (1) Air Force 11-7 #6 or 10-8 #6 7.(t) Fresno State (6-11) (1) Wyoming 7-11 #7/8 or 6/12#8
7.(t) New Mexico (6-11) (1) Utah State 6-12 #8 (#7 if Fresno St. loses to Wyoming) or 7/11 #7 9. Air Force (5-12) (1) at Colorado State 5-13 #9 or 6/12 10. San Jose State (3-14) (1) UNLV 3-15 #10 11. Wyoming (2-15) (1) at Fresno State 2-16 #11 6 seeds are set (1, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11) The wild card is Nevada if they beat us. That would put them in the #2 seed, bumping Utah State down to #3, or possibly #4 if they lose to New Mexico. Assuming a win by UNLV over San Jose, if both Utah State and Nevada lose, that would vault them up to the #2 seed! A win by UNLV and a loss by either Utah State or Nevada (but not both) would move UNLV to the #3 seed. If both Utah State and Nevada both win, UNLV gets the #4 seed, regardless of whether or not they beat San Jose St. If the Fresno State/Wyoming and New Mexico/Utah State games go to form, Fresno State would have a game lead on New Mexico for the#7 seed, relegating New Mexico to the #8 seed. If both win, or both lose, I believe New Mexico would hold the tiebreaker for the #7 seed.
UNLV split with Utah State. If they end up in a two way tie, UNLV gets the higher seed. UNLV only played Nevada once and Nevada won. If they end up in a two way tie, Nevada gets the higher seed. If UNLV, Nevada and Utah State, end in a three way tie, UNLV gets the higher seed as UNLV beat us.
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 27, 2020 9:48:13 GMT -8
Very likely we play the Wednesday winner of the AFA #9 vs #8 New Mexico or Fresno ( what ever team that is #8 seed ) on Thursday What's AFA's record in MWC tourney games? Still O-fer? A few years back, they were Zero-for-WAC-and-MWC tourney games. I believe they even lost their first tourney game when they were something like 27-4 and went to the NCAA Tourney, which they lost in the first round, natch. My point is, no matter what happens, don't count on playing the Zoomies in the MWC Tourney. Edit: Just looked it up. The Zoomies are now 5-20 in MWC Tourney games. Haven't looked up that stat in about a decade. Good for them. SJSU is 0-5, FWIW.
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Post by LJ_Aztec on Feb 27, 2020 10:22:42 GMT -8
Unless Utah State loses at New Mexico and Fresno State loses at home to Wyoming, both seemingly unlikely, we will be facing the winner of New Mexico and Air Force next Thursday morning. Much more preferable than having to face the Bulldogs again. UNM's Vante Hendrix is the latest in players likely out for the remainder of the year for the Lobos, along with an injury to reserve Tavian Percy, further straining the almost non-existent remaining depth the Lobos have. Air Force is Air Force and we won't lose to them in Vegas.
UNLV and Boise State are the likely opponents for next Friday night at 6. Having to play a surging UNLV isn't great, but I like us having taken an L to them and being hungry to atone for that.
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Post by sdcoug on Feb 27, 2020 10:36:10 GMT -8
With One Game Left (Updated after 2/26 games): Team Still to play Probable final record & seed 1. San Diego State (16-1) (1) at Nevada 17-1 #1 (16-2 #1 if lose to Nevada) 2.(t) Utah State (12-5) (1) at New Mexico 13-5 #2 (#3 if Nevada beats Aztecs) 2.(t) Nevada (12-5) (1) SDSU 12-6 #4/3 (13-5 #2 if beat Aztecs) 4. UNLV (11-6) (1) at San Jose State 12-6 #3/4/2 or 11-7 #4 5. Boise State (11-7) (0) 11-7 #5 6. Colorado State (10-7) (1) Air Force 11-7 #6 or 10-8 #6 7.(t) Fresno State (6-11) (1) Wyoming 7-11 #7/8 or 6/12#8
7.(t) New Mexico (6-11) (1) Utah State 6-12 #8 (#7 if Fresno St. loses to Wyoming) or 7/11 #7 9. Air Force (5-12) (1) at Colorado State 5-13 #9 or 6/12 10. San Jose State (3-14) (1) UNLV 3-15 #10 11. Wyoming (2-15) (1) at Fresno State 2-16 #11 6 seeds are set (1, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11) The wild card is Nevada if they beat us. That would put them in the #2 seed, bumping Utah State down to #3, or possibly #4 if they lose to New Mexico. Assuming a win by UNLV over San Jose, if both Utah State and Nevada lose, that would vault them up to the #2 seed! A win by UNLV and a loss by either Utah State or Nevada (but not both) would move UNLV to the #3 seed. If both Utah State and Nevada both win, UNLV gets the #4 seed, regardless of whether or not they beat San Jose St. If the Fresno State/Wyoming and New Mexico/Utah State games go to form, Fresno State would have a game lead on New Mexico for the#7 seed, relegating New Mexico to the #8 seed. If both win, or both lose, I believe New Mexico would hold the tiebreaker for the #7 seed.
UNLV split with Utah State. If they end up in a two way tie, UNLV gets the higher seed. UNLV only played Nevada once and Nevada won. If they end up in a two way tie, Nevada gets the higher seed. If UNLV, Nevada and Utah State, end in a three way tie, UNLV gets the higher seed as UNLV beat us. In the event of a 3-way tie, the 1st procedure is 3-way record. USU & Nevada are both 2-1; UNLV 1-3. It would reduce it to USU & UNR, with USU holding the edge winning their H2H. With a win USU clinches 2nd, which means playing Fresno instead of Colorado St (assuming each win).
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 27, 2020 11:22:05 GMT -8
UNLV split with Utah State. If they end up in a two way tie, UNLV gets the higher seed. UNLV only played Nevada once and Nevada won. If they end up in a two way tie, Nevada gets the higher seed. If UNLV, Nevada and Utah State, end in a three way tie, UNLV gets the higher seed as UNLV beat us. In the event of a 3-way tie, the 1st procedure is 3-way record. USU & Nevada are both 2-1; UNLV 1-3. It would reduce it to USU & UNR, with USU holding the edge winning their H2H. With a win USU clinches 2nd, which means playing Fresno instead of Colorado St (assuming each win). Ah! Thanks for the clarifications guys! For some reason, I thought UNLV and Nevada split. So, that makes it likely that UNLV gets the #4 seed, and is a potential semifinal opponent.
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Post by standiego on Feb 28, 2020 10:03:37 GMT -8
Playing UNLV in their home arena with their excited fans plus their new coach would not be the preferred match up for us .
The #4 seed very likely UNLV would play BSU on Thursday - while we play winner of the #8( Lobos or Fresno) vs AFA
USU is also coming in with a solid winning streak with their guys playing very good basketball
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