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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 12, 2020 12:14:41 GMT -8
With the Aztecs locking up the regular season championship last night, there are still a few competitive battles remaining.
The quest for the #2 and #3 seeds in the MWCT, meaning you wouldn't have to face the Aztecs until the finals.
Utah State and Boise State are currently in those slots at 9-5, but Colorado State and Nevada are in the mix at 8-5. UNLV still has a glimmer of hope at 7-5, but would need to finish with a good run, starting with tonight's possible make-or-break game against Nevada at home.
The #4 and #5 slots are going to be a dogfight down the stretch as all of the above teams and possibly New Mexico vie to avoid having to play an extra game in the play-ins on Wednesday at the tournament.
Even down at the bottom of the standings. Since it seems unlikely that Wyoming can climb out of the cellar, and barring a total collapse, New Mexico should be able to avoid dropping down into the mix, it will be interesting to see if we get a "who can tank the most" battle to avoid the #8 and #9 slots where you not only have to play the extra game in the play in round, but get the honor of facing the Aztecs in the next round. I can't imagine any of Fresno State, San Jose State (the two currently in that position) or Air Force would relish that task. But do any of them want to avoid it so badly that they would intentionally try to drop down to the #10 spot to avoid the Aztecs?
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Post by azdick on Feb 12, 2020 19:52:35 GMT -8
With the Aztecs locking up the regular season championship last night, there are still a few competitive battles remaining. The quest for the #2 and #3 seeds in the MWCT, meaning you wouldn't have to face the Aztecs until the finals. Utah State and Boise State are currently in those slots at 9-5, but Colorado State and Nevada are in the mix at 8-5. UNLV still has a glimmer of hope at 7-5, but would need to finish with a good run, starting with tonight's possible make-or-break game against Nevada at home. The #4 and #5 slots are going to be a dogfight down the stretch as all of the above teams and possibly New Mexico vie to avoid having to play an extra game in the play-ins on Wednesday at the tournament. Even down at the bottom of the standings. Since it seems unlikely that Wyoming can climb out of the cellar, and barring a total collapse, New Mexico should be able to avoid dropping down into the mix, it will be interesting to see if we get a "who can tank the most" battle to avoid the #8 and #9 slots where you not only have to play the extra game in the play in round, but get the honor of facing the Aztecs in the next round. I can't imagine any of Fresno State, San Jose State (the two currently in that position) or Air Force would relish that task. But do any of them want to avoid it so badly that they would intentionally try to drop down to the #10 spot to avoid the Aztecs? Spartans might enjoy making us miserable considering the earlier “miracle.” |
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 12, 2020 22:16:42 GMT -8
Well, there was no sign of tanking in the first meeting between "contenders" in the 8/9/10 category... Fresno State and San Jose State battled down to the wire and then some, with Fresno prevailing in a back and forth, hard fought overtime win. Interestingly, this gives Fresno another potential way out of the 8/9 problem... they're only one game behind New Mexico now, and could potentially pass them for the 7th seed, putting New Mexico into the mix for the 8/9 seeds.
Nevada edged out UNLV in Vegas, probably eliminating their chance for getting into the 2/3 seed battle, leaving them with the primary goal of clinging onto a top 5 spot and avoiding the extra first round game.
Key matchups Saturday will be UNLV at New Mexico with the motivations being UNLV fighting to stay in contention for a top 5 slot and New Mexico fighting to avoid slipping into the 8/9 pit, and San Jose at Air Force where we have another possibility for "tankgate" as the loser would have the inside track to 10th seed and getting to avoid playing the Aztecs in their second game.
Colorado State and Utah State face double-edged swords in their quest for the 2/3 seeds in that they face bottom dwellers Wyoming and Fresno State on Saturday, but play them on the road. Weaker teams to get past, but the MWC is a tough road conference. I'd still give CSU and Utah State the best shot at staying in the 2/3 drivers seats.
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 15, 2020 23:41:49 GMT -8
The midweek games with the Aztecs on a bye should provide a lot of clarity on the battle for MWCT seedings.
Utah State has what should be a cakewalk at home against Wyoming to solidify their hold on the 2/3 slots (may have #2 to themselves, depending on our game with Boise State tomorrow)
Boise will be getting San Jose State on the road, which should still be a win for them, keeping them in the 2/3 mix with Utah State.
Assuming they both win against their bottom-feeder opponents, the key games will be a couple of upper-tier teams playing on the road:
Nevada at New Mexico and Colorado State at UNLV.
UNLV will be motivated to stay relevant in the race for the top 5, and New Mexico looking to pad their 1.5 game cushion over Fresno State to stay out of the 8/9 mix.
Wins by Nevada and Colorado State solidifies them in the top 5 and avoiding the play-in round and keeps them in the mix for a 2/3 slot.
Down in the low rent district, Air Force visits Fresno in a game that could either give Air Force the edge over Fresno for the #8 spot, and could bring them within a game of New Mexico for #7. A Fresno win would keep them within hailing distance of New Mexico for #7 and leave Air Force and San Jose battling for the 9/10 slots.
At any rate, we should get a much clearer picture of the tiers, with the Top 5 and 8/9 slots being of most interest.
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Post by standiego on Feb 16, 2020 12:10:21 GMT -8
We play AT BSU and AT Nevada , also home with CSU and UNLV that will be important factors in the MW seeding for the MW T
So we will be first focused on how we play AT BSU and in the other games
Then watch for who gets the #8 and #9
Plus the #4 and #5 seed
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Post by namssa on Feb 16, 2020 13:19:57 GMT -8
If I had to make a prediction, Colorado State and Nevada would be 4/5 (with Utah Sate and Boise State 2/3) and Fresno State and Air Force would be 8/9.
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Post by azman on Feb 16, 2020 13:26:53 GMT -8
If I had to make a prediction, Colorado State and Nevada would be 4/5 (with Utah Sate and Boise State 2/3) and Fresno State and Air Force would be 8/9. I do not want to play Fresno in the first round, they always give us a tough game. Any lower seed but them |
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Post by standiego on Feb 16, 2020 16:14:23 GMT -8
Maybe the Lobos drop a few games while Fresno wins a few and moves ahead of the Lobos into 7th would be nice
For the #9 AFA vs #8 game - plays on a Wednesday AFA runs long offensive sets so it tires out the defenders - so we play the winner who has had to play AFA ( unless San Jose gets in) and works a little harder before they play us on Thursday
So maybe the Lobos ? if not then Fresno but at least we have the first round bye
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 16, 2020 16:38:19 GMT -8
Positioned for the stretch run:
Team................................. Still to play ....................................................................... Probable final record & seed
1. San Diego State (15-0) ... (3) UNLV, Colorado State, at Nevada .................................... 18-0 #1
2. Utah State (10-5) ........... (3) Wyoming, San Jose State, at New Mexico ........................ 13-5 #2
3.(t) Colorado State (9-5) ... (4) at UNLV, San Jose State, at SDSU, Air Force ..................... 12-6 (or 11-7) #4 (possibly #3/5)
3.(t) Nevada (9-5) ............. (4) at New Mexico, Fresno State, at Wyoming, SDSU .............. 12-6 (or 11-7) #3 (possibly #4/5)
5. Boise State (9-6) ........... (3) at San Jose State, New Mexico, at UNLV .......................... 11-7 (or 12-6)#5 (possibly #3/4)
6. UNLV (8-6) .................... (4) Colorado State, at SDSU, Boise State, at San Jose State ... 10-8 (or 9-9) #6
7. New Mexico (6-8) ........... (4) Nevada, at Boise State, at Air Force, Utah State ............... 7-11 (or 8-10)#7 (possibly #8)
8. Fresno State (5-10) ........ (3) Air Force, at Nevada, Wyoming ...................................... 7-11 #8 (possibly #7)
9. Air Force (4-10) ............. (4) at Fresno State, Wyoming, New Mexico, at Colorado State . 5-13 (or 6-12) #9
10. San Jose State (3-11) ... (4) Boise State, at Colorado State, at Utah State, UNLV .......... 3-15 #10
11. Wyoming (1-13) ........... (4) at Utah State, at Air Force, Nevada, at Fresno State .......... 1-17 #11
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 18, 2020 13:30:57 GMT -8
A couple of games tonight that should go a long way towards clarifying the MWCT seeding pecking order:
Nevada at New Mexico, and Colorado State at UNLV
Both are close in the betting lines (Nevada -1 and UNLV -1.5)
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Post by randiego on Feb 18, 2020 15:25:32 GMT -8
A couple of games tonight that should go a long way towards clarifying the MWCT seeding pecking order: Nevada at New Mexico, and Colorado State at UNLV Both are close in the betting lines (Nevada -1 and UNLV -1.5) Alford and Noodles return to Loboland. More cheers or boos? |
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 18, 2020 15:47:19 GMT -8
A couple of games tonight that should go a long way towards clarifying the MWCT seeding pecking order: Nevada at New Mexico, and Colorado State at UNLV Both are close in the betting lines (Nevada -1 and UNLV -1.5) Alford and Noodles return to Loboland. More cheers or boos? Oooh! Hadn't thought of that angle!  That could be fun to watch. |
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Post by docmm on Feb 18, 2020 15:54:45 GMT -8
A couple of games tonight that should go a long way towards clarifying the MWCT seeding pecking order: Nevada at New Mexico, and Colorado State at UNLV Both are close in the betting lines (Nevada -1 and UNLV -1.5) Alford and Noodles return to Loboland. More cheers or boos? The UNM board is somewhat split on how to receive the two of them. Most of the posters really appreciate how good they had it under Alfred although are a little bitter that he dumped them. But leaving for UCLA job is understandable to most of them. They feel differently about Noodles Neal. They feel that he tanked the program when he took it over and he will get a lot of boos. |
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Post by bagtec on Feb 18, 2020 16:40:29 GMT -8
A couple of games tonight that should go a long way towards clarifying the MWCT seeding pecking order: Nevada at New Mexico, and Colorado State at UNLV Both are close in the betting lines (Nevada -1 and UNLV -1.5) Alford and Noodles return to Loboland. More cheers or boos? cheers lobo fans are subs |
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 18, 2020 21:07:11 GMT -8
Nevada whomped New Mexico 88-74.
And UNLV is absolutely crushing Colorado State right now, 74-43 with about 8 minutes to play.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 18, 2020 21:14:50 GMT -8
UNLV is running CSU out of the gym. 39-18 advantage on the boards and a 31-pt lead with six minutes left.
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Post by AztecBill on Feb 18, 2020 23:01:21 GMT -8
UNLV is running CSU out of the gym. 39-18 advantage on the boards and a 31-pt lead with six minutes left. They kept saying Colorado state was one of the hottest teams in the Mountain West. They totally ignore schedule. Only two teams in the Mountain West top 6 have lost at home to a team other than San Diego State. Colorado state is one of those teams and it happened in the previous game. Only two teams in the top six other than San Diego State have won on the road against the top six. Colorado state is not one of those teams. Anything Colorado state has done special recently Is because of the timing of the schedule. CSU will likely be tied with UNLV And will lose the tiebreaker because Utah State swept them. |
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 18, 2020 23:17:52 GMT -8
UNLV is running CSU out of the gym. 39-18 advantage on the boards and a 31-pt lead with six minutes left. They kept saying Colorado state was one of the hottest teams in the Mountain West. They totally ignore schedule. Only two teams in the Mountain West top 6 have lost at home to a team other than San Diego State. Colorado state is one of those teams and it happened in the previous game. Only two teams in the top six other than San Diego State have won on the road against the top six. Colorado state is not one of those teams. Anything Colorado state has done special recently Is because of the timing of the schedule. CSU will likely be tied with UNLV And will lose the tiebreaker because Utah State swept them. That scenario hinges on if UNLV can beat Boise State when they visit the last game of the season. If they lose to Boise, then Boise State would likely move up into a tie for the #3 slot (unless they lose to New Mexico, in which case they would be tied with Colorado State) with UNLV remaining in the #6 slot. There will be a lot of very meaningful games to hash out the 3-6 spots down the stretch. |
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 19, 2020 6:40:49 GMT -8
More importantly, if USU runs the table through the MWC championship game and finishes the season with a 26-8 record, do they make the NCAA Tourney as an at-large? And what is their final NET ranking going into the Tourney? And how does that impact SDSU in a head-to-head comparison to the Zags?
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 19, 2020 9:08:00 GMT -8
More importantly, if USU runs the table through the MWC championship game and finishes the season with a 26-8 record, do they make the NCAA Tourney as an at-large? And what is their final NET ranking going into the Tourney? And how does that impact SDSU in a head-to-head comparison to the Zags? Utags sitting steady at 41 in NET... Palm has them in as an 11-seed, Lunardi as one of the last-four (also as an 11-seed, but in a play-in game). They have the tools to upset somebody in the first round if they get in. It's aso worth noting that if Nevada wins their next two, they could possibly advance far enough in NET (they're presently #80) and provide us with another Q1 win opportunity in Reno in two weeks. |
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