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Post by longtimebooster on Mar 10, 2020 7:33:59 GMT -8
It’s better to keep it a secret now anyway. No need in giving our opponents any more information than we have to. As of now, they’ll need to prepare game plans for him in the lineup and not in the lineup. Except that no one can currently prepare for Mensah because the brackets won't be out until Sunday afternoon/evening. By Monday, it will be pretty obvious whether or not Mensah will be in our lineup or not. And the games start on Thurs/Fri. Ergo, there's not much to gain by playing it close to the vest. Further, the shroud of secrecy would only help us in the #2/#15 game, not in any others down the road.
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Post by MontezumasRevenge on Mar 10, 2020 7:55:33 GMT -8
It’s better to keep it a secret now anyway. No need in giving our opponents any more information than we have to. As of now, they’ll need to prepare game plans for him in the lineup and not in the lineup. If he is able to play, making an official announcement that he will could help us in the eyes of the selection committee since they do factor in any returning players when evaluating a team.
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Post by longtimebooster on Mar 10, 2020 9:13:20 GMT -8
It’s better to keep it a secret now anyway. No need in giving our opponents any more information than we have to. As of now, they’ll need to prepare game plans for him in the lineup and not in the lineup. If he is able to play, making an official announcement that he will could help us in the eyes of the selection committee since they do factor in any returning players when evaluating a team. Don't think that's gonna matter, either. Maybe if we were battling for a 4, 5 or 6 seeding and our conference reputation might drop us to a 6, 7, 8. But that's not the case here. Mensah or no Mensah, we're pretty much locked into the 2-spot in the West, no matter what the Zags or anyone else does from here on out.
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Post by longtimebooster on Mar 10, 2020 9:57:22 GMT -8
If anyone's confused about how important Mensah is to this team, here's some enlightenment that should smack you right in the forehead.
I ran some rebounding numbers for Mensah and post-Mensah. And the numbers tell just about the entire story of this team late in the season. With Mensah, SDSU dominated both offensively and defensively. We routinely killed teams on the boards. Without Mensah, we were just an average rebounding team. Dutcher did his best to keep the ship afloat with duct tape and chewing gum, but the team was exposed over the final 8 or 9 games of the season. Our defense would clamp down and then spring leaks. Against USU, our rebounding deficiencies hurt us badly. USU had at least four shot-clock buzzer-beaters and/or put-backs made possible by an offensive rebound. Each of those was disheartening and back-breaking.
Here are the pre- and post- stats for rebounding:
Pre OR TR SDSU 9.92 35 OPP 6.92 28 Post SDSU 6.5 30 OPP 7.5 30
Pre OR: +3 TR: +7
Post OR: -1 TR: Even
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Post by AzTex on Mar 10, 2020 10:23:47 GMT -8
Dutcher said yesterday that Nathan went in for some final tests yesterday. His doctor was going to determine whether to wean him from his blood thinner regimen, which would in effect set a date for his return to competitive play. So, now that yesterday is today, what's the word? Listen closer to what Dutcher said. He said that Nathan had a doctor appointment yesterday (Monday) and has another today (Tuesday). So Monday wasn't the final test. I don't expect any definite news until next week.
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Post by Aztec Empire on Mar 10, 2020 10:24:57 GMT -8
If anyone's confused about how important Mensah is to this team, here's some enlightenment that should smack you right in the forehead. I ran some rebounding numbers for Mensah and post-Mensah. And the numbers tell just about the entire story of this team late in the season. With Mensah, SDSU dominated both offensively and defensively. We routinely killed teams on the boards. Without Mensah, we were just an average rebounding team. Dutcher did his best to keep the ship afloat with duct tape and chewing gum, but the team was exposed over the final 8 or 9 games of the season. Our defense would clamp down and then spring leaks. Against USU, our rebounding deficiencies hurt us badly. USU had at least four shot-clock buzzer-beaters and/or put-backs made possible by an offensive rebound. Each of those was disheartening and back-breaking. Here are the pre- and post- stats for rebounding: Pre OR TR SDSU 9.92 35 OPP 6.92 28 Post SDSU 6.5 30 OPP 7.5 30 Pre OR: +3 TR: +7 Post OR: -1 TR: Even I wish we could factor out the crappy ooc teams from those stats to get a better idea of true rebounding against real opponents.
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Post by aztech on Mar 10, 2020 10:26:43 GMT -8
If anyone's confused about how important Mensah is to this team, here's some enlightenment that should smack you right in the forehead. I ran some rebounding numbers for Mensah and post-Mensah. And the numbers tell just about the entire story of this team late in the season. With Mensah, SDSU dominated both offensively and defensively. We routinely killed teams on the boards. Without Mensah, we were just an average rebounding team. Dutcher did his best to keep the ship afloat with duct tape and chewing gum, but the team was exposed over the final 8 or 9 games of the season. Our defense would clamp down and then spring leaks. Against USU, our rebounding deficiencies hurt us badly. USU had at least four shot-clock buzzer-beaters and/or put-backs made possible by an offensive rebound. Each of those was disheartening and back-breaking. Here are the pre- and post- stats for rebounding: Pre OR TR SDSU 9.92 35 OPP 6.92 28 Post SDSU 6.5 30 OPP 7.5 30 Pre OR: +3 TR: +7 Post OR: -1 TR: Even It makes me wonder why J. Mensah and Norain can't get inside and fight for the rebounds. If they play hard, the officials will let it go in most cases. They seem to needlessly cause reach-in fouls after the ball is in the opponents' hands instead of fighting for the rebounds. Just my observation.
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Post by azteca on Mar 10, 2020 10:49:49 GMT -8
It will be interesting to see how many adjustments will be necessary in the NCAAs with regards to the officiating. It’s my experience that fewer fouls are called than the team experienced in conference play.
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Post by DeeMoney on Mar 10, 2020 11:28:57 GMT -8
It will be interesting to see how many adjustments will be necessary in the NCAAs with regards to the officiating. It’s my experience that fewer fouls are called than the team experienced in conference play. This is why UNM always under performed relative to their seed in march madness. They always got bailed out in conference play and were one of those teams that just flopped into you and got the call, all the while mauling defenders. Come March, they didn't get those whistles....and lost.
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Post by AzTex on Mar 10, 2020 11:32:48 GMT -8
If he is able to play, making an official announcement that he will could help us in the eyes of the selection committee since they do factor in any returning players when evaluating a team. Don't think that's gonna matter, either. Maybe if we were battling for a 4, 5 or 6 seeding and our conference reputation might drop us to a 6, 7, 8. But that's not the case here. Mensah or no Mensah, we're pretty much locked into the 2-spot in the West, no matter what the Zags or anyone else does from here on out.Maybe, maybe not. Gonzaga dropped from #2 in the Net rankings to #3, just one one spot ahead of our #4 Net ranking. When the seeding preview came out the committee was saying Gonzaga was ahead of us be very little. Since then they lost to BYU where we won. Posibilly we've move ahead based on that and the fact that some of their best wins don't look as good today. In addition, some of our best wins look even better.
Then there's the WCC Finals tonight with Gonzaga vs St. Marys. St. Marys wins and we might be a lock for that #1 in the West. March madness in full swing, anything can happen.
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Post by standiego on Mar 10, 2020 12:35:50 GMT -8
As has been the case for a while . Nathan will resume practice when the Medical and Risk management team ( to make sure there are no legal problems ) allow him to practice with contact - then evaluate from there . As Dutcher has said he Hopes Nathan will be able to practice then play when totally cleared .
Q for those who enjoy to speculate - chances that if Zags Lose to SMC that they could drop to a #2 seed ahead of us in the West ? Still a lot to be determined by other teams games
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Post by legkick on Mar 10, 2020 12:35:58 GMT -8
Against USU, our rebounding deficiencies hurt us badly. USU had at least four shot-clock buzzer-beaters and/or put-backs made possible by an offensive rebound. Each of those was disheartening and back-breaking. Those could easily be misleading numbers. You really want to not do total rebounding - you want to do expected rebounding, based on opportunities, like AztecBill does. For example, the Utah State game. Very cherry picking to identify four things made possible by an offensive rebound. The Aztecs had more offensive rebounds than USU did. Also, second chance points were the same - 10 to 10 (which means the Aztecs did a poorer job of converting 2nd chances than USU did, not that they rebounded worse). The Aztecs missed 40 shots and 2 free throws (both live). USU missed 27 shots and 1 free throw (which was a deadball). Based on a 70/30 split you would expect USU to have 36 or 37 rebounds and the Aztecs to have 32 or 33. That's exactly what it was - an evenly rebounded game. Yes, the Aztecs rebounded worse without Mensah. No, it didn't cost them the MWC championship game.
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Post by sdsuball on Mar 10, 2020 12:43:52 GMT -8
If anyone's confused about how important Mensah is to this team, here's some enlightenment that should smack you right in the forehead. I ran some rebounding numbers for Mensah and post-Mensah. And the numbers tell just about the entire story of this team late in the season. With Mensah, SDSU dominated both offensively and defensively. We routinely killed teams on the boards. Without Mensah, we were just an average rebounding team. Dutcher did his best to keep the ship afloat with duct tape and chewing gum, but the team was exposed over the final 8 or 9 games of the season. Our defense would clamp down and then spring leaks. Against USU, our rebounding deficiencies hurt us badly. USU had at least four shot-clock buzzer-beaters and/or put-backs made possible by an offensive rebound. Each of those was disheartening and back-breaking. Here are the pre- and post- stats for rebounding: Pre OR TR SDSU 9.92 35 OPP 6.92 28 Post SDSU 6.5 30 OPP 7.5 30 Pre OR: +3 TR: +7 Post OR: -1 TR: Even It makes me wonder why J. Mensah and Norain can't get inside and fight for the rebounds. If they play hard, the officials will let it go in most cases. They seem to needlessly cause reach-in fouls after the ball is in the opponents' hands instead of fighting for the rebounds. Just my observation. Rebounds Per 40 Minutes: Rk Player TRB 1 Nathan Mensah 13.5 2 Keshad Johnson 11.2 3 Yanni Wetzell 9.4 4 Aguek Arop 9.0 5 Nolan Narain 8.0 6 Matt Mitchell 7.5 7 Joel Mensah 6.2 8 Malachi Flynn 5.3 9 Jordan Schakel 5.2 10 KJ Feagin 4.3 11 Trey Pulliam 4.3 12 Adam Seiko 3.3 13 Caleb Giordano 1.6 14 Jared Barnett 0.0
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Post by sdsuball on Mar 10, 2020 12:57:18 GMT -8
Nathan Mensah should start after playing a game or two to dust off the rust. He is the second most valuable player on the team, and only him and Joel Mensah are capable of bringing a shot blocking dimension to our team. Arguably Joel Mensah deserves minutes as well. Our team did a lot better when we had Nathan or Joel providing a shot blocking dimension to our defense, as well as giving our starters more rest so that they could take over the game in the second half. Having big centers that can block shots wears down the opposing team and forces them into bad shots - shots that tend to not fall with tired legs in the second half of games. This is how we beat Iowa and Creighton, and the opposite happened to us against Utah State in the finals of the conference tournament.
Rk Player PER BLK% WS/40
1 Malachi Flynn 27.6 0.4 .278
2 Nathan Mensah 24.5 10.8 .230
3 Matt Mitchell 22.6 1.7 .229
4 Yanni Wetzell 21.9 2.9 .204
5 Jordan Schakel 17.7 0.3 .197
6 Aguek Arop 16.6 2.9 .152
7 Joel Mensah 14.0 11.4 .133
8 Adam Seiko 10.5 0.0 .132
9 KJ Feagin 12.3 1.2 .128
10 Trey Pulliam 10.5 0.5 .117
11 Caleb Giordano 10.1 0.0 .101
12 Keshad Johnson 12.2 1.2 .100
13 Nolan Narain 7.1 1.2 .071
14 Jared Barnett -10.6 0.0 -.136
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Post by fisherville on Mar 10, 2020 13:10:26 GMT -8
We actually had a higher offensive rebound % against Utah state than Utah state (29.3 vs 28.6), rebounding was not why we lost.
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Post by sdsuball on Mar 10, 2020 13:13:14 GMT -8
We actually had a higher offensive rebound % against Utah state than Utah state (29.3 vs 28.6), rebounding was not why we lost. Yeah, we lost because Flynn jacked up 20 shots, Jordan only got 3 and Mitchell went 1 of 7. But I think also part of that was we were playing a bunch of games in a row and our starters were running and shooting on tired legs. If we played a 9 or 10 man rotation for the mountain west tournament I bet our starters would have played better against Utah State in the tournament.
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Post by longtimebooster on Mar 11, 2020 5:50:38 GMT -8
If anyone's confused about how important Mensah is to this team, here's some enlightenment that should smack you right in the forehead. I ran some rebounding numbers for Mensah and post-Mensah. And the numbers tell just about the entire story of this team late in the season. With Mensah, SDSU dominated both offensively and defensively. We routinely killed teams on the boards. Without Mensah, we were just an average rebounding team. Dutcher did his best to keep the ship afloat with duct tape and chewing gum, but the team was exposed over the final 8 or 9 games of the season. Our defense would clamp down and then spring leaks. Against USU, our rebounding deficiencies hurt us badly. USU had at least four shot-clock buzzer-beaters and/or put-backs made possible by an offensive rebound. Each of those was disheartening and back-breaking. Here are the pre- and post- stats for rebounding: Pre OR TR SDSU 9.92 35 OPP 6.92 28 Post SDSU 6.5 30 OPP 7.5 30 Pre OR: +3 TR: +7 Post OR: -1 TR: Even I wish we could factor out the crappy ooc teams from those stats to get a better idea of true rebounding against real opponents. Ask, and ye shall receive. So, I filtered out the cr@ppy OOC teams and left in only the six big-boy teams that Mensah faced: BYU, Creighton, Iowa, San Jose St., Colo. St. and Utah. And the rebounding numbers are actually better (and, no, I'm not going to wonk out and do the actual vs. expected nonsense.) To wit: Pre OR TR SDSU 9.5 34 OPP 6.3 25 Post SDSU 6.5 30 OPP 7.5 30 Pre OR: +3.2 TR: +9 Post OR: -1 TR: Even
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Post by legkick on Mar 11, 2020 6:19:42 GMT -8
Actual v expected isn't nonsense, but burying your head in the sand and posting noncontextual raw numbers as if they mean much might be.
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Post by couldashoulda on Mar 11, 2020 6:48:02 GMT -8
I assume that if anybody had heard anything yesterday that it would have been reported. I follow Ziegler, and others that would be in the know, on Twitter and did not see any reports. Maybe today? My understanding was he was going to be examined by a doctor yesterday.
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Post by longtimebooster on Mar 11, 2020 7:06:22 GMT -8
Actual v expected isn't nonsense, but burying your head in the sand and posting noncontextual raw numbers as if they mean much might be. Actually, didn't mean to imply that it's nonsense because it isn't. Rather, I'm waaaaay to lazy to crunch all those numbers and do a wonky deep dive. Having said that, the numbers I did spend waaaay to much time downloading/calculating tell a pretty basic, black-and-white story. As Dutcher has said several times in interviews, before Mensah went down, SDSU was an elite rebounding team. Afterward, we were average. That's a big deal. And it goes a long way toward explaining some of the difficulties the team had down the stretch.
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