|
Post by moctezumaii on Nov 20, 2019 6:06:40 GMT -8
Good 'ol imperfect RPI has us at #20 right now. We already have one Q1 win on the books with our W at Provo. A 4-0 road/neutral court record between now and the start of conference play should give us another 1-2 Q1 wins and set us up with a good tournament resume if we can take care of business in Jan and Feb. We need all the help we can get and to avoid the usual-as-of-late annual toe stubbing. The Mountain West sans us and Utah St. is getting a train ran through it like we offended Alonzo Harris Our chances for an at-large would seem to hinge on next week's Vegas tournament. Can't take more than one loss and a sweep would be sweet.
|
|
|
Post by johnnyutah on Nov 20, 2019 8:26:52 GMT -8
We need all the help we can get and to avoid the usual-as-of-late annual toe stubbing. The Mountain West sans us and Utah St. is getting a train ran through it like we offended Alonzo Harris Our chances for an at-large would seem to hinge on next week's Vegas tournament. Can't take more than one loss and a sweep would be sweet. Agreed. Assuming we don't lose against teams we should beat (which has been an issue the last few years), if we could say beat Creighton, lose to Texas Tech and beat Utah, we'd have a pretty solid non-conference resume if BYU, Utah and Creighton go on to have successful years. We could use a couple quad 1 wins -- outside of Utah St (and maybe NM if they can win some games in the next 10 days) there's probably not going to be any once the conference season starts.
|
|
|
Post by docmm on Nov 21, 2019 7:17:21 GMT -8
According to Team Rankings we are now favored in every remaining scheduled game except for the two Utah State games. We just snuck up to 50.7% favored over Creighton as they have us at #40 team in the country ahead of #43 Creighton. Texas Tech is at #10. They have us as a 68% chance of making the NCAA Tournament now, up 8% from yesterday. If you sign up for this, they update everything in an email after every SDSU game. www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/san-diego-st-aztecs/projectionsKen Pom has at #66 now after starting the season at #81.
|
|
|
Post by mojo56 on Nov 21, 2019 8:07:58 GMT -8
According to Team Rankings we are now favored in every remaining scheduled game except for the two Utah State games. We just snuck up to 50.7% favored over Creighton as they have us at #40 team in the country ahead of #43 Creighton. Texas Tech is at #10. They have us as a 68% chance of making the NCAA Tournament now, up 8% from yesterday. If you sign up for this, they update everything in an email after every SDSU game. www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/san-diego-st-aztecs/projectionsKen Pom has at #66 now after starting the season at #81. I've always been a big fan of Team Rankings (and KenPom). Love getting my email after an Aztec victory.
|
|
|
Post by FULL_MONTY on Nov 21, 2019 8:19:24 GMT -8
According to Team Rankings we are now favored in every remaining scheduled game except for the two Utah State games. We just snuck up to 50.7% favored over Creighton as they have us at #40 team in the country ahead of #43 Creighton. Texas Tech is at #10. They have us as a 68% chance of making the NCAA Tournament now, up 8% from yesterday. If you sign up for this, they update everything in an email after every SDSU game. www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/san-diego-st-aztecs/projectionsKen Pom has at #66 now after starting the season at #81. www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi#45 CBI
|
|
|
Post by DeeMoney on Nov 21, 2019 8:31:49 GMT -8
Just to pile on, our SOR (Strength of Record) is #3 nationally. SOR is on the ESPN site, it is described as: "a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve."
|
|
|
Post by docmm on Nov 21, 2019 8:56:05 GMT -8
Just to pile on, our SOR (Strength of Record) is #3 nationally. SOR is on the ESPN site, it is described as: "a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve." Not sure how that criteria gives us the 3rd highest ranking in the country. Other than BYU game, we won the games that we should have won.
|
|
|
Post by namssa on Nov 21, 2019 9:00:13 GMT -8
It probably calculates the score too, as we have blown out every opponent outside of BYU.
|
|
|
Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 21, 2019 9:21:07 GMT -8
According to Team Rankings we are now favored in every remaining scheduled game except for the two Utah State games. We just snuck up to 50.7% favored over Creighton as they have us at #40 team in the country ahead of #43 Creighton. Texas Tech is at #10. They have us as a 68% chance of making the NCAA Tournament now, up 8% from yesterday. If you sign up for this, they update everything in an email after every SDSU game. www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/san-diego-st-aztecs/projectionsKen Pom has at #66 now after starting the season at #81. www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi#45 CBI and if you do a SOR sort, you will see that SDSU is #3 in the country which is compared to how SDSU has done versus how the average Top 25 team would do against the same schedule... Nice!
|
|
|
Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 21, 2019 9:22:02 GMT -8
Just to pile on, our SOR (Strength of Record) is #3 nationally. SOR is on the ESPN site, it is described as: "a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve." Not sure how that criteria gives us the 3rd highest ranking in the country. Other than BYU game, we won the games that we should have won. It is how the average Top 25 team would do against the schedule... They are saying we have played very well against the schedule we have.
|
|
|
Post by Sdsu4life on Nov 21, 2019 9:45:41 GMT -8
Sagarin Rankings Updated Through 11/20/2019
San Diego State #34 Total Ranked #194 Strength of Schedule
Still a little early to get a true feel for strength of schedule, though, ours is nothing to brag about.
|
|
|
Post by DeeMoney on Nov 21, 2019 11:37:47 GMT -8
Just to pile on, our SOR (Strength of Record) is #3 nationally. SOR is on the ESPN site, it is described as: "a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve." Not sure how that criteria gives us the 3rd highest ranking in the country. Other than BYU game, we won the games that we should have won. We have the 117th best SOS by their metric, and we are 4-0. The only undefeated team with a better SOS is Texas (they are ranked #1). Depaul has a worse SOS but are 5-0 (the difficulty of winning that extra game moves them up to #2). It doesn't take into account margin of victory, it doesn't balance out the early season sample size (and this early in the season one loss carries disproportionate weight). What this is basically showing is that of all the undefeated teams we have the second best SOS using their formula. Heck, we have the 10th best SOS for undefeated teams using Pomeroy's method- it has been a good start.
|
|
|
Post by DeeMoney on Nov 22, 2019 15:09:31 GMT -8
Now, #1 in SOR. Best SOS for an undefeated team.
|
|
|
Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 22, 2019 16:58:35 GMT -8
Now, #1 in SOR. Best SOS for an undefeated team. Saw that, tried to add a screen shot, but I am not that cool...
|
|
|
Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 22, 2019 16:59:18 GMT -8
Now, #1 in SOR. Best SOS for an undefeated team. Saw that, tried to add a screen shot, but I am not that cool... Also, while all the other metrics have data from last year, this metric is this year determined and shows how well the team s performed ytd...
|
|
|
Post by docmm on Nov 23, 2019 7:06:39 GMT -8
Latest rankings after LIU game: Ken Pom #65 Sagarin #35 Team Rankings #43
Team Rankings had the Aztecs at a 70% likelihood to make the NCAA Tournament before the LIU game. After beating LIU by 17 points, that likelihood went down to 67%. That just shows you how important it is to play a better schedule. When a P5 team beats another pretty good P5 team by 3 points, it makes them look so much better than us beating LIU by 17. But if we just keep winning, eventually you get put above the P5 teams with 3-4 losses that are probably better.
|
|
|
Post by aztecking on Nov 23, 2019 7:28:49 GMT -8
Latest rankings after LIU game: Ken Pom #65 Sagarin #35 Team Rankings #43 Team Rankings had the Aztecs at a 70% likelihood to make the NCAA Tournament before the LIU game. After beating LIU by 17 points, that likelihood went down to 67%. That just shows you how important it is to play a better schedule. When a P5 team beats another pretty good P5 team by 3 points, it makes them look so much better than us beating LIU by 17. But if we just keep winning, eventually you get put above the P5 teams with 3-4 losses that are probably better. These rankings systems take into account how much you win by versus what you were expected to win by. We were expected to win by more than 17 so in the rankings eyes we aren’t as good of a team as the system predicted.
|
|
|
Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 24, 2019 16:04:57 GMT -8
Up to #31
|
|
|
Post by azteccc on Nov 24, 2019 21:37:13 GMT -8
Latest rankings after LIU game: Ken Pom #65 Sagarin #35 Team Rankings #43 Team Rankings had the Aztecs at a 70% likelihood to make the NCAA Tournament before the LIU game. After beating LIU by 17 points, that likelihood went down to 67%. That just shows you how important it is to play a better schedule. When a P5 team beats another pretty good P5 team by 3 points, it makes them look so much better than us beating LIU by 17. But if we just keep winning, eventually you get put above the P5 teams with 3-4 losses that are probably better. It shows us how noisy statistical models are with a tiny sample size
|
|
|
Post by aztecking on Nov 25, 2019 8:47:26 GMT -8
Latest rankings after LIU game: Ken Pom #65 Sagarin #35 Team Rankings #43 Team Rankings had the Aztecs at a 70% likelihood to make the NCAA Tournament before the LIU game. After beating LIU by 17 points, that likelihood went down to 67%. That just shows you how important it is to play a better schedule. When a P5 team beats another pretty good P5 team by 3 points, it makes them look so much better than us beating LIU by 17. But if we just keep winning, eventually you get put above the P5 teams with 3-4 losses that are probably better. It shows us how noisy statistical models are with a tiny sample size In this instance that’s not the reason. The reason we went down is we won by less than we were expected to win by. So in the model’s eyes we are a slightly worse team than was predicted before we played the game.
|
|