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Post by legkick on Nov 25, 2019 9:18:43 GMT -8
In this instance that’s not the reason. The reason we went down is we won by less than we were expected to win by. So in the model’s eyes we are a slightly worse team than was predicted before we played the game. This early in the season, the model's expected margin of victory is likely also impacted by small sample size and other statistical noise.
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Post by azteccc on Nov 25, 2019 10:04:33 GMT -8
It shows us how noisy statistical models are with a tiny sample size In this instance that’s not the reason. The reason we went down is we won by less than we were expected to win by. So in the model’s eyes we are a slightly worse team than was predicted before we played the game. And why were we expected to win by X...? That site doesn’t detail their formula much at all, but does give us the following - “Based on our team power ratings, we predict the outcome of every remaining game in the season. Early in the season, the simulations are based heavily on our college basketball preseason ratings. Later in the year, those ratings will become less important, and actual team performance will take precedence.” What you’re saying in your response is exactly what noise is - and is a result of a small sample size (combined with imperfect and possibly bad preseason numbers). Check it... did we play yesterday? No. But our odds at an at-large went down 2.6%.
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Post by namssa on Nov 25, 2019 23:23:51 GMT -8
BYU beat UCLA today 78-63. That will help.
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Post by mactec on Nov 26, 2019 10:16:04 GMT -8
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Post by docmm on Nov 27, 2019 8:29:03 GMT -8
Yet, we've stayed at #65 and #66 for the last week in the Ken Pom. Sagarin Ratings however, have us at #28, which is considerably higher that Creighton @ #69 and Iowa @ #63.
Ken Pom still has 4-2 Michigan State(!)at #1 and Sagarin has Duke @ #1 even after losing to Stephan F Austin at home. The Blue Bloods get a whole lot of slack.
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Post by DeeMoney on Nov 27, 2019 10:43:40 GMT -8
Yet, we've stayed at #65 and #66 for the last week in the Ken Pom. Sagarin Ratings however, have us at #28, which is considerably higher that Creighton @ #69 and Iowa @ #63. Ken Pom still has 4-2 Michigan State(!)at #1 and Sagarin has Duke @ #1 even after losing to Stephan F Austin at home. The Blue Bloods get a whole lot of slack. Kenpom rankings take into account pre-season predicted team value and slowly reduces that for the first couple months. As of now that ranking is still a lot predicated on pre-season prediction
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Post by standiego on Nov 27, 2019 11:20:18 GMT -8
Bottom line our OOC games with Creighton and TT or /Iowa plus Utah determine our chances for at large bid for MM . need at least 2 wins .
Also could determine if MW is a 1 team conference again - USU
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Post by docmm on Nov 27, 2019 12:05:47 GMT -8
I’m not very afraid of Utah, especially on a neutral court. I figure we can beat either Creighton or Iowa.
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Post by standiego on Nov 27, 2019 13:48:33 GMT -8
We have not played a team as good as Creighton , or even Utah . .They are averaging about 80- points a game with guys that can score on a regular basis . Plus possibly TT who is a top 25 team - that grits it out . Iowa scores about 84 and has a high quality guy at the 5 .
Utah scores about 82 points , 44 rebounds, 16 assists a game and 50% FG but we play them later in December
Creighton has three scorers that shoot about 45% on threes
All teams that have experienced players
Have our guys really bought into playing D - hitting the boards and sharing the basketball - when some of our guys really enjoy shooting the three -even if they are not hitting them . We do not have the superstar so great need to play good team basketball .
The games in the Las Vegas T and Utah will be a challenge to say the least - define what kind of team we have - hope we are up to it
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Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 27, 2019 14:34:57 GMT -8
Bottom line our OOC games with Creighton and TT or /Iowa plus Utah determine our chances for at large bid for MM . need at least 2 wins . Also could determine if MW is a 1 team conference again - USU Agreed we need to win two of three...
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Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 27, 2019 14:46:11 GMT -8
We have not played a team as good as Creighton , or even Utah . .They are averaging about 80- points a game with guys that can score on a regular basis . Plus possibly TT who is a top 25 team - that grits it out . Iowa scores about 84 and has a high quality guy at the 5 . Utah scores about 82 points , 44 rebounds, 16 assists a game and 50% FG but we play them later in December Creighton has three scorers that shoot about 45% on threes All teams that have experienced players Have our guys really bought into playing D - hitting the boards and sharing the basketball - when some of our guys really enjoy shooting the three -even if they are not hitting them . We do not have the superstar so great need to play good team basketball . The games in the Las Vegas T and Utah will be a challenge to say the least - define what kind of team we have - hope we are up to it Sagarin SDSU #28, Iowa #63, BYU (road)#65, Creighton #69, Utah #88 ESPN BPI Iowa #34, SDSU #43, Creighton #46, BYU #53, Utah #134 KenPom Creighton #51, Iowa #56, SDSU #66, BYU #72, Utah 114 BYU on the road is as tough as any of the other games on a neutral site, except Texas Tech assuming we play them.
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Post by standiego on Nov 27, 2019 16:08:16 GMT -8
playing AT BYU is very difficult but think Creighton has a lot more talent ( BYU was also without one of their best players) and more difficult to beat major challenge they also added the USD assistant coach who knows how we play
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Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 28, 2019 22:06:46 GMT -8
KenPom now up to #47
Iowa at #42
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Post by aztec92 on Nov 28, 2019 22:41:26 GMT -8
Creightons KenPom Offense drops from #8 to #24
Our KenPom Defense rises from #41 to #22
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Post by docmm on Nov 29, 2019 6:11:46 GMT -8
Creighton and BYU will be getting back very important players before too long from suspension, injuries and transfer timelines; which should help their subsequent records which will help us.
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Post by mactec on Nov 29, 2019 8:07:01 GMT -8
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Post by KDub on Nov 29, 2019 9:13:53 GMT -8
Sagarin has us up to 15 after the Creighton beat down
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Post by mojo56 on Nov 29, 2019 9:21:07 GMT -8
Team Rankings has SDSU up to #27 with an 85% chance of making the tournament. Also: "We project the Aztecs with a 26% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen and a 5% chance to reach the Final Four." Seems like an overly optimistic forecast but I'd give my left nut to see it happen.
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Post by docmm on Nov 29, 2019 16:34:23 GMT -8
Sagarin has us up to 15 after the Creighton beat down That's #15 ahead of #18 Kentucky, #19 Utah State and #25 North Carolina. I know that's not an accurate placement but I don't care. It's just so cool to see San Diego State that high up on any board. Texas Tech dropped all the way to #32 with their loss so I know if or when we finally lose, we'll plummet fast and hard.
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Post by docmm on Nov 29, 2019 16:41:07 GMT -8
Team Rankings has SDSU up to #27 with an 85% chance of making the tournament. Also: "We project the Aztecs with a 26% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen and a 5% chance to reach the Final Four." Seems like an overly optimistic forecast but I'd give my left nut to see it happen. They now have us at 14-4 in conference with a 31% chance to win the conference. And even though they have us at 24.5-4.5 overall record, they say we have over a 50% to win every game on our schedule except the away game at Utah State. So I don't really understand how they pick that record for us if you have over a 50% chance of winning in every other game. It all doesn't really matter and all we have to do is just keep winning and everything will take care of itself. It's just so much fun speculating about the season.
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