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Post by Boise Aztec on Feb 8, 2016 20:25:18 GMT -8
According to RPI Forecast at 16-2 and 2-1 in MWCT we will be a 36 to 42 RPI and a likley 8 or 9 seed. I would be suprised if we end up a 12 seed. A 42 RPI, or a 42 on the S curve, would be an 11 seed. It's not that unlikely to be a 12. Except UL and SMU are already out moving the curve up to a 10 seed at 42, so I will stick with the 8 to 9 seed at 18-3 including the MWC tourney. I actually think we will go 20-1 and win the MWCT and get a 6 or 7 seed.
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Post by AztecBill on Feb 8, 2016 22:21:31 GMT -8
RPI Forecast's average RPI based upon record 28.7 18-0 37.2 17-1 47.7 16-2 58.3 15-3
We would still have the MWC Tournament to improve our RPI. Worse case there is if SJSU wins the play-in round and adds their stink to our RPI.
There are 2 more spots than the last time we had to worry about this. Two additional spots are open because SMU and Louisville are eligible this year.
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Post by AztecBill on Feb 8, 2016 22:29:34 GMT -8
A 42 RPI, or a 42 on the S curve, would be an 11 seed. It's not that unlikely to be a 12. Except UL and SMU are already out moving the curve up to a 10 seed at 42, so I will stick with the 8 to 9 seed at 18-3 including the MWC tourney. I actually think we will go 20-1 and win the MWCT and get a 6 or 7 seed. We have had an upper half seeding 5 years in a row. That is quite a record. It would be real nice to extend that. Louisville is one of the few (5) schools to do that. It would be even more exclusive at 6 in a row.
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Post by keepersdsu on Feb 8, 2016 23:25:48 GMT -8
A lot can happen over the next month. We are in a situation where we need to start rooting against teams that may be on the bubble as well. It may not come down to that if we go 18-0, or win the conference tourney. In any case, I'm so proud of our team regardless of what happens the rest of the way. For them to start off 11-0 and give us an opportunity to even talk about a possible at-large is amazing. 10-1 or 9-2 would still have us in first place, but an at large wouldn't even be in the picture. Talk about stepping up and playing like if your life depended on it.
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Post by csfoster on Feb 9, 2016 12:16:22 GMT -8
A lot can happen over the next month. We are in a situation where we need to start rooting against teams that may be on the bubble as well. It may not come down to that if we go 18-0, or win the conference tourney. In any case, I'm so proud of our team regardless of what happens the rest of the way. For them to start off 11-0 and give us an opportunity to even talk about a possible at-large is amazing. 10-1 or 9-2 would still have us in first place, but an at large wouldn't even be in the picture. Talk about stepping up and playing like if your life depended on it. How true! Play on Aztecs!!!
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Post by sdcoug on Feb 9, 2016 12:29:20 GMT -8
A lot can happen over the next month. We are in a situation where we need to start rooting against teams that may be on the bubble as well. It may not come down to that if we go 18-0, or win the conference tourney. In any case, I'm so proud of our team regardless of what happens the rest of the way. For them to start off 11-0 and give us an opportunity to even talk about a possible at-large is amazing. 10-1 or 9-2 would still have us in first place, but an at large wouldn't even be in the picture. Talk about stepping up and playing like if your life depended on it. Very true. We want 6 P12 teams to demolish the other 6, minimizing their bids. Heck, WSU could be our friend - any loss to them right now probably bursts a bubble or two (OSU, UW). We should be rooting against Monmouth (although hard to do w/ their bench antics), South Dakota, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Valpo, Akron, Cincy, Temple, Chattanooga & Stonybrook. The more they lose, the more room for error we have.
The only bubbles we probably don't want to root against are those we played, like AKLR or Cal.
LOVE this time of year. Things really start to get interesting around Mid-Feb.
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Post by northcountymike on Feb 9, 2016 13:38:17 GMT -8
When it's all said and done, we'll be an 8 seed. Believe it.
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Post by biotec on Feb 9, 2016 14:23:40 GMT -8
As of right now, we'd be in according to the Dance Card: www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htmDunno if you guys followed this site in the past but it's been pretty good in determining at-large bids. Interestingly, we're #34 in RPI under the old weighting system.
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Post by sdcoug on Feb 9, 2016 14:29:33 GMT -8
When it's all said and done, we'll be an 8 seed. Believe it. But is that what we want? : ) Would you rather be a 10, 11 or 12 and never have to face #1?
I'm with you (& Bill) - the higher the better. Think round 1 (vs. 2) first, and keep the streak alive!
IMO we'd need to win 19+ MW games for a shot at #8 (e.g. 16-2 + win conference tourney; 17-1 + 2, etc.). It could happen...
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Post by Lloyd on Feb 9, 2016 15:03:37 GMT -8
The Pac-12 will likely get 6 bids or so, but I don't think there are any really good teams in that conference.
Arizona has their worst team in 4 years. Oregon and USC have been playing well recently, but Oregon lost this year to Boise St. and UNLV, and barely beat Fresno State in Eugene. I will be surprised if any Pac-12 team gets past the Sweet 16 this year.
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Post by northcountymike on Feb 9, 2016 15:04:48 GMT -8
When it's all said and done, we'll be an 8 seed. Believe it. But is that what we want? : ) Would you rather be a 10, 11 or 12 and never have to face #1?
I'm with you (& Bill) - the higher the better. Think round 1 (vs. 2) first, and keep the streak alive!
IMO we'd need to win 19+ MW games for a shot at #8 (e.g. 16-2 + win conference tourney; 17-1 + 2, etc.). It could happen...
Agreed - I want better than #8 (and have to play a "good" #9 and then go right up against #1). I just feel we're a lot better than the current #12 that we are projected as on a few sites.
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Post by Boise Aztec on Feb 9, 2016 15:04:51 GMT -8
When it's all said and done, we'll be an 8 seed. Believe it. But is that what we want? : ) Would you rather be a 10, 11 or 12 and never have to face #1?
I'm with you (& Bill) - the higher the better. Think round 1 (vs. 2) first, and keep the streak alive!
IMO we'd need to win 19+ MW games for a shot at #8 (e.g. 16-2 + win conference tourney; 17-1 + 2, etc.). It could happen...
seed preference... 6, 7, 10,11,12,8,9
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Post by uncledougy on Feb 9, 2016 18:38:17 GMT -8
So you think we could be a 2 bid league if we don't win the conference tourney? If we win 16+1 or 2 in the tourney, or go 17-1 in conference, DEFINITELY. Right now I'd say there are 4 tiers, of which we'd be among the upper half of all the conferences easily. The MW is the #12 conference, and there aren't that many who are set to get more than 1 bid - maybe 9-10.
Tier 1 (7 conferences): Definite multi-bids bid conferences (Big 6 + A10)
Tier 2 (2 conferences): WCC & AAC (the latter is fading quickly IMO)
> The AAC has SMU winning the regular season, but not eligible. So Cincy & UConn are battling for the conference tourney; both are probably in now, but they have work to do (like us). The WCC has St. Mary's & Gonzaga; St Mary's was sitting strong, but probably less so now. My guess is both end up 15-3 & both do get a bid, but "work to do". The fly would be a BYU winning their tourney. My guess is it'd bump 1 of the other 2, more so than a 3rd bid. Like the MW last year.
Tier 3a (7 conferences): 1+ bid, where conference champ has a good shot. This includes MVC (Wichita), which probably has the strongest argument; MWC with SDSU; Horizon w/ Valpo; Metro w/ Monmouth; Southern w/ Chattanooga; Sun w/ AKLR; & MAC w/ Akron. Personally, I'd say our case is top 3-4 within this grouping right now.
Tier 3b (3 conferences): 1+ bid, BUT the conference champ is learning towards being on the outside looking in. This includes Colonial (William & Mary has a strong RPI case but they're currently in 2nd place in their own conference); Summit w/ other SDSU; Am-East w/ Stonybrook.
Tier 4 (13 conferences): 1 bid only for sure - BW, Ivy, CUSA, OVC, Patriot, Big S, WAC, ASUN, Big Sky, Southland, NE, SWAC, MEAC
So right now lets say Tier 4 & 3b both end up with just 1 team, which is currently the case. That's 16 bids, leaving 16 conferences & 52 more bids. As is, for us not to get an at-large, the WCC & AAC would both have to get 2 teams, and the P6+A10's would need to get 41 between them (6 on average), leaving 7 bids for the other 7 conferences. Possible, but I think unlikely as of today.
I think Tier 1 & Tier 2 end up with a combined total of 41-43 bids; 16 get 1 bid for sure, leaving anywhere from 9-11 bids for the 7 teams in the Tier 3a group. If all Tier 3a regular season champs win all 7 tourneys, then the P6 group expands. But as of today, I'd think there would need to be a lot of conference upsets from w/in the AAC, MVC, Horizon, AND Metro, where non top 50 teams would win, in order for us not to get a bid.
Again, that doesn't mean there's not work to do. This assumes we go 16-2+. But to say we don't have a shot at being an at-large & this being a 2-bid conference IMO is inaccurate. There's definitely a shot; a better shot than most conferences. Plus, given the parity today & the way teams are falling by the week, we could even sneak in at 15-3 + 2 conference tourney wins.
Isn't that 5 tiers?
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Post by CbLsD on Feb 9, 2016 19:28:32 GMT -8
I would much rather be a 12 seed than an 8 like last year if we are truly looking at making a run. I think we'd have a much better chance of beating a 5 and then a 4 rather than beating a 9 and then have to face a 1. I don't have any stats in front of me but I feel like a lot more 12 seeds end up in the sweet sixteen than 8's do. Data may prove me wrong but I bet this is true.
I brought this up the other day on a different thread but what if we ran the table? Where would we end up then? *knock on wood not to jinx. It may be a far fetched idea as we almost lost 2 home games last week but we do appear to be getting better. If Hemsley & Kell continue on their current upward trajectory and Pope finds his touch our offense will certainly continue to be more consistent. Of course there are a million variables as teams are going to lose and others will start winning but if we didn't lose again we'd go into the Dance having won 21 straight. Can't dismiss the terrible OOC results but where the hell would you seed a team that had won that many games in a row and is top 3 in the country in almost every defensive category?
I'm generally a pessimist so I find it hard to fathom this ever occurring but much stranger things have happened.....
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Post by Fishn'Aztec on Feb 28, 2016 7:18:24 GMT -8
Enough of us west siders around that we could have a nice caravan heading over the pass to Spokane. It would seem that the wheels of the caravan came off yesterday!! AZTECS need to win 5 to stay alive!!
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