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Post by Fishn'Aztec on Feb 8, 2016 15:45:39 GMT -8
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Post by sdmotohead on Feb 8, 2016 15:52:51 GMT -8
I hate to say it, but we are not guaranteed an at large bid. The only reason we are in any bracket right now is because we sit atop the MWC and the conference get's a spot for the tourney champion. So think of it more as a place holder for the winner of the tourney rather than taking it at face value.
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Post by mayham81 on Feb 8, 2016 15:57:32 GMT -8
I hate to say it, but we are not guaranteed an at large bid. The only reason we are in any bracket right now is because we sit atop the MWC and the conference get's a spot for the tourney champion. So think of it more as a place holder for the winner of the tourney rather than taking it at face value. Agreed, it's actually kind of annoying because it's not clear where these experts would have them otherwise. Next 4 out? next 4 out after that?
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Post by untitled on Feb 8, 2016 16:02:18 GMT -8
We're either going to be a dangerous 12 seed or not in the tourney at all.
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Post by 91aztec on Feb 8, 2016 16:03:12 GMT -8
Enough of us west siders around that we could have a nice caravan heading over the pass to Spokane.
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Post by Fishn'Aztec on Feb 8, 2016 16:06:15 GMT -8
Enough of us west siders around that we could have a nice caravan heading over the pass to Spokane. I had that thought too.
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Post by standiego on Feb 8, 2016 16:07:13 GMT -8
all the team can do is win as many games as possible to remain as bubble team. Bad OOC , that can mean more then MW conference hurt us . Also MW conference is terrible , no rated teams .
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2016 16:15:45 GMT -8
Enough of us west siders around that we could have a nice caravan heading over the pass to Spokane. I had that thought too. Saw some of you two years ago.
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Post by Fishn'Aztec on Feb 8, 2016 16:17:05 GMT -8
Win the conference, and take the tourney in Vegas is what it may take. Better not lose the tourney and leave your fate in the committee's hands! JMO
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Post by Fishn'Aztec on Feb 8, 2016 16:19:04 GMT -8
Saw some of you two years ago. It was nice to meet some of you prior to that terrible result vs. the huskies!
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Post by partytecs on Feb 8, 2016 17:02:52 GMT -8
If we go 18-0 in MWC then we are in & a higher seed than #12. if we go 18-0 in MWC, then we will be ranked around top 15-20. We will be able to with stand a loss in tourney.
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Post by sdcoug on Feb 8, 2016 17:26:50 GMT -8
I hate to say it, but we are not guaranteed an at large bid. The only reason we are in any bracket right now is because we sit atop the MWC and the conference get's a spot for the tourney champion. So think of it more as a place holder for the winner of the tourney rather than taking it at face value. I think that definitely was the case 2 weeks ago, but think it's less the case now. If the season ended today we'd have a legit RPI, would be conference champs (regular) & have played a tough schedule. We'd most likely be in, either way. We're the default only because you can't assume anyone else would win the conference tourney. The fact there's more games to play obviously means we're "not in yet", but you can say that about MANY teams. Many who lose 2-3 of their final 7-8 games could put themselves in peril.
Lunardi bases his bracketology off ESPN's BPI scores (not RPI), but as many have pointed out he's among the least accurate when it comes to predicting actual brackets. At least compared to several on bracketmatrix. A main reason we're not an 11 seed is because his computer formula has us lower (like Kenpom), which is greatly influenced by actual scores & score differential. RPI isn't.
We definitely have work to do. It'd be foolish to think we could even play .500 ball from now on & get in. However, if we go 16-2, + win 1-2 MWCT games we'll end up somewhere around an RPI under 50 (meaning 48 minus SMU & Louis), regular season conference champions, and have a strong NC SOS on our side. Anything better than a RPI around 45, or a BPI around 50-something we should be good. Bottom line - our only "freebie" from here thru the end of the regular season is at New Mex. Losing that & we'd get a pass. We can also get away with losing at FSU (or at Wyoming), but probably not both. Win both & finish 17-1 & it's a no brainer.
To paraphrase Fisher, we probably need to win our conference with room to spare. Do that & we should be golden.
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Post by sdmotohead on Feb 8, 2016 17:29:33 GMT -8
So you think we could be a 2 bid league if we don't win the conference tourney?
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Post by mfaulkhof2011 on Feb 8, 2016 17:38:28 GMT -8
Another factor in our favor is there are two more at large spots this year in theory. That is Louisville and SMU would be at large locks if they didn't win their respective tournaments and now they are out. Good for the Aztecs!
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Post by Boise Aztec on Feb 8, 2016 18:07:02 GMT -8
I hate to say it, but we are not guaranteed an at large bid. The only reason we are in any bracket right now is because we sit atop the MWC and the conference get's a spot for the tourney champion. So think of it more as a place holder for the winner of the tourney rather than taking it at face value. I think that definitely was the case 2 weeks ago, but think it's less the case now. If the season ended today we'd have a legit RPI, would be conference champs (regular) & have played a tough schedule. We'd most likely be in, either way. We're the default only because you can't assume anyone else would win the conference tourney. The fact there's more games to play obviously means we're "not in yet", but you can say that about MANY teams. Many who lose 2-3 of their final 7-8 games could put themselves in peril.
Lunardi bases his bracketology off ESPN's BPI scores (not RPI), but as many have pointed out he's among the least accurate when it comes to predicting actual brackets. At least compared to several on bracketmatrix. A main reason we're not an 11 seed is because his computer formula has us lower (like Kenpom), which is greatly influenced by actual scores & score differential. RPI isn't.
We definitely have work to do. It'd be foolish to think we could even play .500 ball from now on & get in. However, if we go 16-2, + win 1-2 MWCT games we'll end up somewhere around an RPI under 50 (meaning 48 minus SMU & Louis), regular season conference champions, and have a strong NC SOS on our side. Anything better than a RPI around 45, or a BPI around 50-something we should be good. Bottom line - our only "freebie" from here thru the end of the regular season is at New Mex. Losing that & we'd get a pass. We can also get away with losing at FSU (or at Wyoming), but probably not both. Win both & finish 17-1 & it's a no brainer.
To paraphrase Fisher, we probably need to win our conference with room to spare. Do that & we should be golden.
According to RPI Forecast at 16-2 and 2-1 in MWCT we will be a 36 to 42 RPI and a likley 8 or 9 seed. I would be suprised if we end up a 12 seed.
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Post by Boise Aztec on Feb 8, 2016 18:09:46 GMT -8
So you think we could be a 2 bid league if we don't win the conference tourney? Yes, more than likley. If we win the tournament then it will be a one bid league. My guess is that if we go into the conference semis witj an RPI of 35 or better or even in the final with a similar RPI Hair will be rooting (refs, um) for an SDSU loss.
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Post by uncledougy on Feb 8, 2016 18:21:12 GMT -8
Win the conference, and take the tourney in Vegas is what it may take. Better not lose the tourney and leave your fate in the committee's hands! JMO It looks like winning the conference regular season title will do zero for making the tournament. An at-large appears to be a long shot. Maybe going undefeated in conference can change that, but 3 games in March will be what it takes. And we all know how hard it's going to be to win the MWC tourney. I used to love the auto-bid for the conference tourney winners because it worked for us for so many years....now it's working against us....who woulda thunk it??
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Post by sdcoug on Feb 8, 2016 19:09:28 GMT -8
So you think we could be a 2 bid league if we don't win the conference tourney? If we win 16+1 or 2 in the tourney, or go 17-1 in conference, DEFINITELY. Right now I'd say there are 4 tiers, of which we'd be among the upper half of all the conferences easily. The MW is the #12 conference, and there aren't that many who are set to get more than 1 bid - maybe 9-10.
Tier 1 (7 conferences): Definite multi-bids bid conferences (Big 6 + A10)
Tier 2 (2 conferences): WCC & AAC (the latter is fading quickly IMO)
> The AAC has SMU winning the regular season, but not eligible. So Cincy & UConn are battling for the conference tourney; both are probably in now, but they have work to do (like us). The WCC has St. Mary's & Gonzaga; St Mary's was sitting strong, but probably less so now. My guess is both end up 15-3 & both do get a bid, but "work to do". The fly would be a BYU winning their tourney. My guess is it'd bump 1 of the other 2, more so than a 3rd bid. Like the MW last year.
Tier 3a (7 conferences): 1+ bid, where conference champ has a good shot. This includes MVC (Wichita), which probably has the strongest argument; MWC with SDSU; Horizon w/ Valpo; Metro w/ Monmouth; Southern w/ Chattanooga; Sun w/ AKLR; & MAC w/ Akron. Personally, I'd say our case is top 3-4 within this grouping right now.
Tier 3b (3 conferences): 1+ bid, BUT the conference champ is learning towards being on the outside looking in. This includes Colonial (William & Mary has a strong RPI case but they're currently in 2nd place in their own conference); Summit w/ other SDSU; Am-East w/ Stonybrook.
Tier 4 (13 conferences): 1 bid only for sure - BW, Ivy, CUSA, OVC, Patriot, Big S, WAC, ASUN, Big Sky, Southland, NE, SWAC, MEAC
So right now lets say Tier 4 & 3b both end up with just 1 team, which is currently the case. That's 16 bids, leaving 16 conferences & 52 more bids. As is, for us not to get an at-large, the WCC & AAC would both have to get 2 teams, and the P6+A10's would need to get 41 between them (6 on average), leaving 7 bids for the other 7 conferences. Possible, but I think unlikely as of today.
I think Tier 1 & Tier 2 end up with a combined total of 41-43 bids; 16 get 1 bid for sure, leaving anywhere from 9-11 bids for the 7 teams in the Tier 3a group. If all Tier 3a regular season champs win all 7 tourneys, then the P6 group expands. But as of today, I'd think there would need to be a lot of conference upsets from w/in the AAC, MVC, Horizon, AND Metro, where non top 50 teams would win, in order for us not to get a bid.
Again, that doesn't mean there's not work to do. This assumes we go 16-2+. But to say we don't have a shot at being an at-large & this being a 2-bid conference IMO is inaccurate. There's definitely a shot; a better shot than most conferences. Plus, given the parity today & the way teams are falling by the week, we could even sneak in at 15-3 + 2 conference tourney wins.
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Post by FinalFourJoe on Feb 8, 2016 19:58:39 GMT -8
Aztecs will become a major topic of discussion the more they keep winning. Two things: 1. Don't forget how many losses other teams will rack up in the next three weeks. 2. Don't underestimate perception. Aztecs have built up a lot of credit since 2009.
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Post by mySTRAS on Feb 8, 2016 20:07:34 GMT -8
I think that definitely was the case 2 weeks ago, but think it's less the case now. If the season ended today we'd have a legit RPI, would be conference champs (regular) & have played a tough schedule. We'd most likely be in, either way. We're the default only because you can't assume anyone else would win the conference tourney. The fact there's more games to play obviously means we're "not in yet", but you can say that about MANY teams. Many who lose 2-3 of their final 7-8 games could put themselves in peril.
Lunardi bases his bracketology off ESPN's BPI scores (not RPI), but as many have pointed out he's among the least accurate when it comes to predicting actual brackets. At least compared to several on bracketmatrix. A main reason we're not an 11 seed is because his computer formula has us lower (like Kenpom), which is greatly influenced by actual scores & score differential. RPI isn't.
We definitely have work to do. It'd be foolish to think we could even play .500 ball from now on & get in. However, if we go 16-2, + win 1-2 MWCT games we'll end up somewhere around an RPI under 50 (meaning 48 minus SMU & Louis), regular season conference champions, and have a strong NC SOS on our side. Anything better than a RPI around 45, or a BPI around 50-something we should be good. Bottom line - our only "freebie" from here thru the end of the regular season is at New Mex. Losing that & we'd get a pass. We can also get away with losing at FSU (or at Wyoming), but probably not both. Win both & finish 17-1 & it's a no brainer.
To paraphrase Fisher, we probably need to win our conference with room to spare. Do that & we should be golden.
According to RPI Forecast at 16-2 and 2-1 in MWCT we will be a 36 to 42 RPI and a likley 8 or 9 seed. I would be suprised if we end up a 12 seed. A 42 RPI, or a 42 on the S curve, would be an 11 seed. It's not that unlikely to be a 12.
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