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Post by legkick on Nov 26, 2015 11:50:45 GMT -8
The key teams in James' rooting list this week are South Florida (91% chance to win per espn.com); Western Michigan (29%), and UConn (17%).
All three basically must win in order to keep the long shot alive for following weeks ("upset" in every non-MWC championship game).
The approximate odds of all three of those teams winning is about 4.4%. Overall, the odds of everything falling the Aztecs' way are probably less than 1%.
so you're saying there's a chance. . .
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Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 26, 2015 12:33:22 GMT -8
We don't need WMU to win, any of the other three teams left alive not named Toledo needs to win the MAC.
Also, helpful if USF wins, but not needed if UCONN beats Temple. It is either or so the basic stats used to calculated the 4% won't work.
Example a three loss Temple team, assuming they lose and USF loses, beating UH/Navy will take care of the AAC.
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Post by namssa on Nov 26, 2015 15:08:51 GMT -8
Temple beat Penn State and we lost to them so I think they would be chosen over us. We need South Florida to win the AAC.
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Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 26, 2015 20:35:03 GMT -8
Temple beat Penn State and we lost to them so I think they would be chosen over us. We need South Florida to win the AAC. And Temple was at home amd they will have lost 3 out of 5 and we will be on a 9 game win streak and will be undefeated with our full roster. They CFC can use whatever criteria they want amd with how they handled OSU vs Baylor/TCU at the end last yeay I would like our chances.
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Post by legkick on Nov 27, 2015 8:37:45 GMT -8
We don't need WMU to win, any of the other three teams left alive not named Toledo needs to win the MAC. You don't even want Toledo in the championship game. It improves Bowling Green's resume if they were to beat Toledo, and in that case I would expect the Committee to take Bowling Green over SDSU. You want one of the other teams (NIU, CMU, WMU) in the final, and you want them to win it. So, I think James is right. I respectfully disagree. While the Committee has complete discretion in the factors it uses for a non-top 25 G5 representative, if there are two things the Committee has shown it cares about, it is strength of schedule and strength of wins. A three loss Temple team has both over a three loss SDSU team. I don't think the Committee cares about winning streaks; they look at body of work. The only thing that would help SDSU in that case is IF such a Temple team suffered a key injury or two and SDSU didn't in their respective championship games - the Committee does seem to care about that as well.
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Post by Boise Aztec on Nov 27, 2015 11:21:15 GMT -8
We don't need WMU to win, any of the other three teams left alive not named Toledo needs to win the MAC. You don't even want Toledo in the championship game. It improves Bowling Green's resume if they were to beat Toledo, and in that case I would expect the Committee to take Bowling Green over SDSU. You want one of the other teams (NIU, CMU, WMU) in the final, and you want them to win it. So, I think James is right. I respectfully disagree. While the Committee has complete discretion in the factors it uses for a non-top 25 G5 representative, if there are two things the Committee has shown it cares about, it is strength of schedule and strength of wins. A three loss Temple team has both over a three loss SDSU team. I don't think the Committee cares about winning streaks; they look at body of work. The only thing that would help SDSU in that case is IF such a Temple team suffered a key injury or two and SDSU didn't in their respective championship games - the Committee does seem to care about that as well. WMU win is our best option, with NIU winning the MAC title game. Now, I see your point on Temple and you could be right. No doubt that USF winning the AAC is our best option, but now that USF has won Temple has to win to make the title game and a 10-2 Temple that goes on to win the AAC will be selected before SDSU. Go UCONN!
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Post by legkick on Nov 27, 2015 11:28:19 GMT -8
]If Toledo loses the MAC championship game it will not matter what their resume says as they have to be a champion and they will not be. Correct, but Bowling Green would be, and their resume would almost certainly be more impressive than the Aztecs. Bowling Green played a brutal nonconference, and came away with two P5 wins - Maryland and Purdue. Their losses would be Tennessee, Memphis and Toledo (regular season). Beating Toledo in a championship game is more impressive than beating Air Force. I just don't think this is going to matter too much. I believe that Houston or Temple is going to win the AAC and it won't be an issue. Still fun for the time being to speculate. . . . but Toledo is losing to Western Michigan, so that is working out for now.
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