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Post by Ambivalent_Fan on Feb 20, 2015 23:56:42 GMT -8
It appears that the Aztecs are currently 20th in RPI and ranked 25/27...how dies this relate to a 29 on the S-curve?...is there another ranking that I'm missing here?
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 21, 2015 8:52:25 GMT -8
It appears that the Aztecs are currently 20th in RPI and ranked 25/27...how dies this relate to a 29 on the S-curve?...is there another ranking that I'm missing here? Because RPI, as well as the polls, are not the only input used by the 'bracketologists' - Sagarin ratings, Kenpom, SoS, etc., are alos factored in an attempt to predict how the selectin committee will seed the field. They do not necessarily directly correlate to a team's eventual seed. When you examine our record against the Top 25 in RPI (1-1) and Top 50 in RPI (2-3), combined with our OOC road record (0-2), you can see there's more to the number than just the two digit-score. That record will be examined by the selection committee more than our RPI ranking alone. RPI alone isn't the best indicator. Since they adjusted the formula (2005?), RPI has predicted teams to within 1 seed 69% of the time. Or in the immortal words of Brian Fontana, 69% of the time, it works every time. By comparison, since 1994, the (final) AP poll has predicted teams to within 1 seed of their actual seed over 84% of the time. That being said, provided we don't chit the bed tonight like an incontinent invalid, we should see ourselves a couple notches up the S-curve come Monday (26-28 IMO), even though our RPI wil actually drop with a dub in San Jose.
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Post by Ambivalent_Fan on Feb 21, 2015 9:24:11 GMT -8
It appears that the Aztecs are currently 20th in RPI and ranked 25/27...how dies this relate to a 29 on the S-curve?...is there another ranking that I'm missing here? Because RPI, as well as the polls, are not the only input used by the 'bracketologists' - Sagarin ratings, Kenpom, SoS, etc., are alos factored in an attempt to predict how the selectin committee will seed the field. They do not necessarily directly correlate to a team's eventual seed. When you examine our record against the Top 25 in RPI (1-1) and Top 50 in RPI (2-3), combined with our OOC road record (0-2), you can see there's more to the number than just the two digit-score. That record will be examined by the selection committee more than our RPI ranking alone. RPI alone isn't the best indicator. Since they adjusted the formula (2005?), RPI has predicted teams to within 1 seed 69% of the time. Or in the immortal words of Brian Fontana, 69% of the time, it works every time. By comparison, since 1994, the (final) AP poll has predicted teams to within 1 seed of their actual seed over 84% of the time. That being said, provided we don't chit the bed tonight like an incontinent invalid, we should see ourselves a couple notches up the S-curve come Monday (26-28 IMO), even though our RPI wil actually drop with a dub in San Jose. Diegan...thanks for your comments...but I'm not sure it really answered my question...how exactly did the OP place the Aztecs with a S-curve of 29...was it abitarary or is this number published somewhere?
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Post by standiego on Feb 21, 2015 9:27:14 GMT -8
So we can guess Gonzaga , Arizona , Utah will play in the North/ West/ in Seattle or Portland as 1,2, or 3 . Then is it Sooners , Baylor , or SMU , or OK State or Texas; preferring to play in the North West or in the Midwest (Omaha, Columbus,) or Mid South (Louisville ,) or what area? . Do not believe there are any sites near Texas .
Believe Selection Sunday 3/15 , other then play in games, most games start the 19 th / or 20 th . If Aztecs do not get a location in the NW , could be difficult travel for the team and fans .
Aztecs really need to sweep the remainder of the MW , plus at least one or two games in MW T for a decent location and seed .
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 21, 2015 9:52:05 GMT -8
Because RPI, as well as the polls, are not the only input used by the 'bracketologists' - Sagarin ratings, Kenpom, SoS, etc., are alos factored in an attempt to predict how the selectin committee will seed the field. They do not necessarily directly correlate to a team's eventual seed. When you examine our record against the Top 25 in RPI (1-1) and Top 50 in RPI (2-3), combined with our OOC road record (0-2), you can see there's more to the number than just the two digit-score. That record will be examined by the selection committee more than our RPI ranking alone. RPI alone isn't the best indicator. Since they adjusted the formula (2005?), RPI has predicted teams to within 1 seed 69% of the time. Or in the immortal words of Brian Fontana, 69% of the time, it works every time. By comparison, since 1994, the (final) AP poll has predicted teams to within 1 seed of their actual seed over 84% of the time. That being said, provided we don't chit the bed tonight like an incontinent invalid, we should see ourselves a couple notches up the S-curve come Monday (26-28 IMO), even though our RPI wil actually drop with a dub in San Jose. Diegan...thanks for your comments...but I'm not sure it really answered my question...how exactly did the OP place the Aztecs with a S-curve of 29...was it abitarary or is this number published somewhere? Ahhh... my bad. In that case, I dunno... I believe there are S-curves independently published by bracketologists that are about as set in stone as their respective pre-selection brakets. What gets me is the variability in published RPI - Live RPI and Realtime RPI both have us at 18, while ESPN has us at 20.
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Post by keepersdsu on Feb 21, 2015 10:38:50 GMT -8
Pitt ahead on the road @ Syracuse. 53-42 with 8 min left. Would be another good win for Pitt.
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Post by OldSlowWhiteBaller on Feb 21, 2015 12:21:56 GMT -8
great stuff! thank you. i would think a win at SJSU is greater than 99% though. Never count dem chickens before............
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Post by AzTex on Feb 21, 2015 12:35:42 GMT -8
great stuff! thank you. i would think a win at SJSU is greater than 99% though. Never count dem chickens before............ ...... the frying pan's hot.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 21, 2015 13:30:40 GMT -8
#22 OSU lost today - at home - and #19 Butler got cornholed at Xavier.
Some good opportunities to climb a notch or two despite the RPI hit we'll incur (just by showing up) at Sharta.
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Post by thepapacy on Feb 23, 2015 11:38:57 GMT -8
Updated S Curve and games to keep an eye on the next couple of days...
I don't know if we'll be able to catch the 4 seeds, but it is possible, especially if they drop a game or two they shouldn't.
And obviously a huge Saturday for us - DP back in action, vs. Boise for inside MW solo title track, and seeding ramifications vs. a top 50 team.
I've been using bracketmatrix.com, which takes the average of 50 or 60 brackets and is the most accurate. About half of them haven't updated since the weekend games, so I'd guess we are actually a line or two higher than 27 - jumping Oklahoma State and (maybe) Butler.
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If we win out, a 4 is possible.
If we win out, a 5 is more likely.
If we lose one to Boise/UNLV and win out (including MW tourney), I'd guess we're a 6, but could also be a 7.
Lose to Boise AND UNLV and we're on the 8/9 line.
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Post by sdcoug on Feb 24, 2015 17:25:18 GMT -8
::Will update as we move along:: Current Tourney Resume 02/24/2015:Current RPI: 25 Current SOS: 82 Current Record: 21-6 Current Conf Record: 12-3 Last 10 games: 8-2 Expected Record vs RPI 1-25: 1-1 Expected Record vs RPI 26-50: 2-3 Expected Record vs RPI 51-100: 4-1 Expected Record vs RPI 101-200: 6-1 Expected Record vs RPI 200+: 9-1 REMAINING GAMESFinal Record Expected RPI Probability 24-6 20.4 43.18% 23-7 24.9 44.60% 22-8 30.2 11.92% 21-9 43.9 0.29% Opponent Location Outcome Prob(W) Spread Boise St. H 69% 5.3 UNLV A 64% 3.9 Nevada H 97% 20.9 S-CURVE13 Maryland vs. Wisconsin 2/24 14 North Carolina vs. NC State 2/24 15 Louisville 16 Baylor (4) @ Iowa St. 2/25 17 Northern Iowa (5) vs. Evansville 2/25 18 Wichita State @ Indiana St. 2/25 19 Arkansas vs. Texas A&M 2/24 20 VCU (5) @ Richmond 2/25 21 Butler (6) vs. Marquette 2/25 22 West Virginia vs. Texas 2/24 23 Georgetown 24 SMU (6) 25 Providence (7) @ Villanova 2/24 26 Oklahoma State 27 SDSU28 Indiana (7) @ Northwestern 2/25 29 Mich. State (8) 30 Ohio State 31 Xavier Loss @ St. Johns 2/2332 Ole Miss (8)33 Texas (9) 34 Dayton 35 Colorado State 36 Iowa Some big games tonight. Seems to me we'd want: - Texas over West Virginia (#22 in curve; don't think Texas jumps us with win) - Villanova beating Providence (#25 above) - NCST over UNC (#14) - Wisky over #13 Maryland - TAM over #19 Ark - Pitt over BC (RPI boost)
And from a short term perspective, NM over Boise, but long-term I think Boise winning helps us more (assuming we win Saturday).
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Post by thepapacy on Feb 25, 2015 19:50:21 GMT -8
Updated... Man, with a win this weekend we'd be in a great position to get into the 6 seed line. Also in our favor - none of the teams close to us on the curve have a stake in wanting to play in the West
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Post by chris92065 on Feb 25, 2015 20:00:10 GMT -8
I really want the 4th seed. BAD. Most upsets happen with the 6th and 5th seeds....
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Post by thepapacy on Feb 26, 2015 12:52:14 GMT -8
HUGE Saturday coming up, I can't wait.
Biggest game of the year vs. the Boise State Marks'.
North Carolina lost at home earlier this week to NC State, and have to go to U of Miami this weekend. Could start to tumble.
Northern Iowa and Wichita State play each other... Both directly ahead of us. If either lose two on the way out, we easily pass.
Arkansas, only six or seven spots above us on the S Curve, play AT Kentucky.
VCU already lost @ Richmond yesterday, now has to go to Dayton. We might already hop them, with two losses its a guarantee.
Georgetown is three slots ahead of us but looking shaky, going TO St. John's.
Also shaky SMU, barely in front of us, goes TO an improved Memphis team.
Directly ahead of us, Providence already got RUN by Nova.
West VA, though they might have to lose a couple more to be near us, have to go TO Baylor (who just won AT Iowa St.)
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TLDR; teams to root for this weekend are in bold. Let's run the table on these, could be a GREAT weekend for SDSU hoops!
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Post by aztecking on Feb 26, 2015 13:38:09 GMT -8
HUGE Saturday coming up, I can't wait. Biggest game of the year vs. the Boise State Marks'. North Carolina lost at home earlier this week to NC State, and have to go to U of Miami this weekend. Could start to tumble. Northern Iowa and Wichita State play each other... Both directly ahead of us. If either lose two on the way out, we easily pass. Arkansas, only six or seven spots above us on the S Curve, play AT Kentucky. VCU already lost @ Richmond yesterday, now has to go to Dayton. We might already hop them, with two losses its a guarantee. Georgetown is three slots ahead of us but looking shaky, going TO St. John's. Also shaky SMU, barely in front of us, goes TO an improved Memphis team. Directly ahead of us, Providence already got RUN by Nova. West VA, though they might have to lose a couple more to be near us, have to go TO Baylor (who just won AT Iowa St.) -- TLDR; teams to root for this weekend are in bold. Let's run the table on these, could be a GREAT weekend for SDSU hoops! The Arkansas game doesn't matter, they won't move regardless of what happens. I guarantee they won't be punished for losing ON THE ROAD to the best team in the nation. If we hoped to pass them we really needed them to lose to Texas A&M.
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Post by sdcoug on Feb 26, 2015 13:42:21 GMT -8
HUGE Saturday coming up, I can't wait. Biggest game of the year vs. the Boise State Marks'. North Carolina lost at home earlier this week to NC State, and have to go to U of Miami this weekend. Could start to tumble. Northern Iowa and Wichita State play each other... Both directly ahead of us. If either lose two on the way out, we easily pass. Arkansas, only six or seven spots above us on the S Curve, play AT Kentucky. VCU already lost @ Richmond yesterday, now has to go to Dayton. We might already hop them, with two losses its a guarantee. Georgetown is three slots ahead of us but looking shaky, going TO St. John's. Also shaky SMU, barely in front of us, goes TO an improved Memphis team. Directly ahead of us, Providence already got RUN by Nova. West VA, though they might have to lose a couple more to be near us, have to go TO Baylor (who just won AT Iowa St.) -- TLDR; teams to root for this weekend are in bold. Let's run the table on these, could be a GREAT weekend for SDSU hoops! The Arkansas game doesn't matter, they won't move regardless of what happens. I guarantee they won't be punished for losing ON THE ROAD to the best team in the nation. If we hoped to pass them we really needed them to lose to Texas A&M. Initially thought the same thing, BUT they could lose at SC or vs. LSU, even at home. Plus, they don't win their conference tourney. If they beat Kentucky there's NO SHOT at ever passing them, even if they lose out IMO. But if they lose to Kentucky, and then lose 1-2 more it's a possibility, especially if it's a blowout loss to Kentucky at home.
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Post by thepapacy on Feb 26, 2015 13:47:46 GMT -8
The Arkansas game doesn't matter, they won't move regardless of what happens. I guarantee they won't be punished for losing ON THE ROAD to the best team in the nation. If we hoped to pass them we really needed them to lose to Texas A&M. Not really all that accurate... Brackets aren't made yet, so it isn't a "punishment" situation. Maybe you're right if talking about rankings. Agree to disagree.
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Post by thepapacy on Feb 26, 2015 13:48:38 GMT -8
The Arkansas game doesn't matter, they won't move regardless of what happens. I guarantee they won't be punished for losing ON THE ROAD to the best team in the nation. If we hoped to pass them we really needed them to lose to Texas A&M. Initially thought the same thing, BUT they could lose at SC or vs. LSU, even at home. Plus, they don't win their conference tourney. If they beat Kentucky there's NO SHOT at ever passing them, even if they lose out IMO. But if they lose to Kentucky, and then lose 1-2 more it's a possibility, especially if it's a blowout loss to Kentucky at home.
+1 I was going to write this, and then thought he probably didn't want to hear it from me Thanks!
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Post by standiego on Feb 26, 2015 13:50:29 GMT -8
agree they are not going to ding teams that lose in P5 conferences on the road or to other top 10 teams . that is why we really need to beat BSU at home . A Need To Win Game for us . But BSU also knows could be game breaking win for them . What team can out execute the other wins . Do need a full and involved crowd for SDSU .
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Post by AztecBill on Feb 26, 2015 14:05:34 GMT -8
agree they are not going to ding teams that lose in P5 conferences on the road or to other top 10 teams . that is why we really need to beat BSU at home . A Need To Win Game for us . But BSU also knows could be game breaking win for them . What team can out execute the other wins . Do need a full and involved crowd for SDSU . Dammit, who told them? We need to have better security.
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