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Post by thepapacy on Feb 18, 2015 12:52:59 GMT -8
::Will update as we move along:: Current Tourney Resume 02/28/2015:
Current RPI: 23 Current SOS: 83 Current Record: 21-6 Current Conf Record: 12-3 Last 10 games: 8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25: 1-1 Expected Record vs RPI 26-50: 3-3 Expected Record vs RPI 51-100: 3-1 Expected Record vs RPI 101-200: 7-1 Expected Record vs RPI 200+: 9-0
REMAINING GAMES
Final Record Expected RPI Probability 24-6 20.7 44.49% 23-7 24.2 44.16% 22-8 30.1 11.04% 21-9 45.3 0.30%
Opponent Location Outcome Prob(W) Spread Boise St. H 69% 5.3 UNLV A 66% 4.4 Nevada H 98% 20.8
S-CURVE
16 North Carolina (4) Loss vs. NC State 2/24 17 Northern Iowa (5) Loss @ Wichita St. 2/28 18 Wichita State 19 Arkansas Loss @ Kentucky 2/28 20 West Virginia (5) Loss @ Baylor 2/28 21 VCU (6) Loss vs. Dayton 2/28, Loss @ Richmond 2/25 22 Butler 23 Georgetown Loss @ St. Johns 2/28 24 SMU (6) 25 Providence (7) Loss @ Villanova 2/24 26 SDSU 27 Oklahoma State Loss @ Texas Tech 2/28 28 Michigan State (7) Loss vs. Minnesota 2/26 29 Indiana (8) Loss @ Northwestern 2/25 30 Ohio State 31 Xavier Loss vs. Villanova 2/28, Loss @ St. Johns 2/23 32 Ole Miss (8) Loss @ LSU 2/28 33 Colorado State (9) 34 Iowa 35 St. Johns 36 Dayton
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Post by aztecttcas on Feb 18, 2015 13:01:26 GMT -8
Good stuff only we're 21-6, not 20-6
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Post by thepapacy on Feb 18, 2015 13:02:44 GMT -8
Good stuff only we're 21-6, not 20-6 NCAA Committee looks only at D1 games.
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Post by hoobs on Feb 18, 2015 13:14:23 GMT -8
And then there's the "soft" or more subjective data...
Good wins: Utah (home), Pitt (neutral), Colorado St (home) Bad losses: Fresno St (away; Fresno currently RPI# 215, forecast to be #207)
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 18, 2015 13:26:49 GMT -8
And if we run the table in the Vegas Invitational and finish at 27-6?
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 18, 2015 13:34:18 GMT -8
Being the #1 8-seed on the curve puts us only four spots from a geogrpahically "protected" 7-seed.
Damn, I've come to love this time of year...
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2015 14:01:18 GMT -8
BYU should win their next 2 games - at home against USD, on the road at Portland. They finish up on the road at Gonzaga, which should be a loss. IF BYU takes care of business the next 2 games, they are forecasted to finsih inside the top 50 at around 43, which we want to happen to pad our wins against the Top 50.
God, forgive me for I am about to sin... LET'S GO BYU!
We also need to win against Boise St at home for another top 50 win. If UNLV can pull off a couple tough wins, they should finish in the top 100 as well, which is a bit helpful for our SOS. If we win out and UNLV, BYU and a couple other schools we played along the way do their part, things can align for us to get a 5. That loss at FSU is the difference between us being a 4 and a 5/6. Based on the RPI simulator, if we win out the regular season we will finish at 21. If we would have beaten FSU and we win out, we would have finished at 14.
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Post by mayham81 on Feb 18, 2015 14:04:22 GMT -8
And if we run the table in the Vegas Invitational and finish at 27-6? May be just me, but it seems like the conf tourney games don't affect much. The committee has teams laid out while games are going on that weekend and I don't think they move teams around too much if they win their conf tourney games. Maybe in the case of a team on the bubble but not with teams safely in the field.
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Post by standiego on Feb 18, 2015 14:35:00 GMT -8
Think it is important to win out at least through the conference play . But those on MM selection group do not value the MW , it is ranked pretty low , so don't count on too much of a bump . they realize that all the wins CSU and Slow Pokes had over OOC lowly rated teams does not cut it. Do think Aztecs have some credibility . Utah win sure helps also BYU and Pitt, plus both the AD of Utah and BYU are members of that group so could gain the Aztecs some value . All the Aztecs can control is winning their games - so go out and do it .
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Post by thepapacy on Feb 19, 2015 14:27:35 GMT -8
Updated 2/19
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 19, 2015 18:06:38 GMT -8
Indiana is about to go down to Purdue.
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Post by sdcoug on Feb 20, 2015 10:25:56 GMT -8
Indiana goes down.
If we win out there's no way both Wichita & N Iowa stay above us, and Butler as a #5 is ridiculous. In fact the whole #5 seed line is pretty bad.
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Post by thepapacy on Feb 20, 2015 11:22:01 GMT -8
Updated to include important 2/21 games and some of the teams right behind us on the S Curve
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Post by Dave L on Feb 20, 2015 11:26:50 GMT -8
Being the #1 8-seed on the curve puts us only four spots from a geogrpahically "protected" 7-seed. Damn, I've come to love this time of year... This is the second time in 24 hours that someone has mentioned a geographically protected #7 seed to me. I have always thought it was top four. I have just searched for 10 minutes on this and pretty much only found articles from 2013. Most mentioned top four and one mentioned top five. Not trying to prove everyone wrong...I just want to know the correct answer. Does anyone have a current link to the correct answer? Perhaps things have changed for the upcoming tournament? If it really is seven and I flew Southwest a lot...I would be much more comfortable booking Portland and Seattle right now.
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Post by standiego on Feb 20, 2015 15:04:03 GMT -8
If the sites for the 64 teams in MM are Jacksonville FL , Louisville KY , Pittsburgh PA , Portland OR , Charlotte NC , Columbus OH , Omaha NE , Seattle WA.?
For Gonzaga , Utah and Arizona most likely get 1 , 2 ,3 seeds in Seattle or Portland .
For teams now 17-36 .SDSU would also hope for those two cities , You have teams in the South West: Texas , SMU , and OK State, what location would they prefer , is it the same or Omaha or ?
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Post by MarshallU on Feb 20, 2015 15:17:54 GMT -8
great stuff! thank you. i would think a win at SJSU is greater than 99% though.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 20, 2015 18:49:03 GMT -8
Being the #1 8-seed on the curve puts us only four spots from a geogrpahically "protected" 7-seed. Damn, I've come to love this time of year... This is the second time in 24 hours that someone has mentioned a geographically protected #7 seed to me. I have always thought it was top four. I have just searched for 10 minutes on this and pretty much only found articles from 2013. Most mentioned top four and one mentioned top five. Not trying to prove everyone wrong...I just want to know the correct answer. Does anyone have a current link to the correct answer? Perhaps things have changed for the upcoming tournament? If it really is seven and I flew Southwest a lot...I would be much more comfortable booking Portland and Seattle right now. The "S-curve" refers to the separation into each seed into four sub-categories, e.g., the 1st-ranked 6-seed, the 2nd-highest 6 seed, the 3rd-highest 6 seed, and the 4th-highest 6-seed. This ranking is done for every seed, 1-16. Then, as I understand it, the highest ranked seed (for each seed) is sent to destinations closer to home. That's why the brackets that had us as the highest-ranked 8-seed had us playing up the coast. But it will be intersting to see come next week a) where we lie on the S-curve and b) where the bracketologists have us playing... as if we have moved a spot or two up the S-curve (to the 3rd or 4th-ranked 7-seed), then we might see ourselves shipped out to another region. With regards to the 1-4 seeds, and again, as I understand it, each 1-4 seed is regionally protected - at least as much as possible - in the first weekend. Protection in the regional finals though might be limited to the top two of each seed... I'm not sure about that myself.
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Post by Lloyd on Feb 20, 2015 20:08:37 GMT -8
The Aztecs are up to a 7 seed in Jerry Palm's current projection at CBS Sports, and the top-rated 8 seed at bracketmatrix.com
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Post by mactec on Feb 20, 2015 21:01:23 GMT -8
Being the #1 8-seed on the curve puts us only four spots from a geogrpahically "protected" 7-seed. Damn, I've come to love this time of year... This is the second time in 24 hours that someone has mentioned a geographically protected #7 seed to me. I have always thought it was top four. I have just searched for 10 minutes on this and pretty much only found articles from 2013. Most mentioned top four and one mentioned top five. Not trying to prove everyone wrong...I just want to know the correct answer. Does anyone have a current link to the correct answer? Perhaps things have changed for the upcoming tournament? If it really is seven and I flew Southwest a lot...I would be much more comfortable booking Portland and Seattle right now. Well we played in Ohio as a #6, so there's that.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 20, 2015 23:24:10 GMT -8
This is the second time in 24 hours that someone has mentioned a geographically protected #7 seed to me. I have always thought it was top four. I have just searched for 10 minutes on this and pretty much only found articles from 2013. Most mentioned top four and one mentioned top five. Not trying to prove everyone wrong...I just want to know the correct answer. Does anyone have a current link to the correct answer? Perhaps things have changed for the upcoming tournament? If it really is seven and I flew Southwest a lot...I would be much more comfortable booking Portland and Seattle right now. Well we played in Ohio as a #6, so there's that. Perfect example... The other 6-seeds were UNLV, Murray St., and Cincinatti, with an RPI (going into the tournament) of 18, 22, and 42, respectively. Our RPI going into the tourney was 26. UNLV played in friendly confines at the Pit - the closest venue to home. Murray St. more-or-less stayed at home at Louisville. Cinci played 280 miles away in Nashville, but they had just taken down #2 Syracuse and #15 Georgetown in the Big East tourney before losing to (#17) Louisville in the championship. Of the four, we were the lowest 6-seed and thus traveled the farthest.
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