Interesting Facts on "Stars" and P5 offers

[fowl]

We know that both Super Bowl teams don't have any 5* players but 20 starters were 2* or less.

Then there is this:

@brucefeldmancfb: Of the 6 players who received NFL MVP votes this season, 4 didn't have a single scholarship offer from a Power5 program out of HS.

[fisherville]

And yet the pac 5 continues to beat up on everyone else in CFB, sure there will always be outliers, but for the most part the stars say a lot.

[Old School]

The 5 stars peak in college sometimes.

Oldie Out

[OCEOTL]

2014 = 10-2 2015 = 13-0
5* are juniors in high school.
Also top teams do not get first choice in drafts.

[OCEOTL]

2014 = 10-2 2015 = 13-0
Texas 5* are 18 0r 19 because many hold their kids back.

California 4* are most likely 17 or 18.

What part of sour grapes do people not understand?

denigration of star "estimates" is only applicable for football since we can't yet get primos.

Approval of stars in basketball rules since we are in contention.

[Deleted]

the stars thing is way over hyped the service do even agree with each other except on the very top recruits. Football has something like a million kids playing it. Nobody can see even 15 percent of them. Basketball is a lot easier to judge these kids play all year long.In basketball youhav eplenty opportunities to shine. If your an olineman in Bumluck New Mexico, then forget it unless your 6'9 350.
The recruiting gurus do not take in to account how a certain athletes skills might uniquely match a certain teams schemes.

[sdcoug]

Jan 31, 2015 20:47:14 GMT -8 fowl said:

We know that both Super Bowl teams don't have any 5* players but 20 starters were 2* or less.

Then there is this:

@brucefeldmancfb: Of the 6 players who received NFL MVP votes this season, 4 didn't have a single scholarship offer from a Power5 program out of HS.

That's strictly due to it being a numbers game. 5 star players represent less than 1% of all HS D1 recruits, of which some have injuries or do jail time, etc. So the odds of NFL rosters being filled with 5-stars is small.

However, relative to other star ratings, players who are 4 and/or 5 star players in HS are SIGNIFICANTLY more likely to be drafted, especially in the 1st round, and it's not even close. 4/5 star recruits typically represent about 10% of all HS D1 recruits every year, yet represent over 50% of the players drafted in the 1st round. On the flipside, 2-stars/unranked represent over half of each years class, yet represent less than 10% of the players drafted in the first round, and 28% of those who get drafted period. Again, the latter is strictly a numbers game - there aren't enough 4/5 star recruits to fill an entire draft without nearly every one panning out.

Other factors - 4/5 star recruits are more likely to contribute EARLIER in their college careers, and there hasn't been a #1 college team in the past decade + I believe without a 5-star recruit on its roster.

There are definitely a ton of gems in the 3-star & 2-star categories, as some of those players develop & mature later. However, the odds of a 2-star being a great player vs. a 5-star are substantially lower, simply because there are 2000+ 2-star/non-rated recruits. So 20-30 of 2000 is a lot different than 10-20 out of 30 5-star recruits.

Also keep in mind that many if not most of the contributing NFL players today were recruited into college in 2009 or before. Since then you have a) the significant advancement of the recruiting services (e.g. fewer are being missed during the recruiting process), and b) the widening gap between the P5 & B5 schools, given the TV contracts. In 2009 the BSU's, SDSU's, FSU's would win the occasional battle with mid-tier Pac 10 schools and win a fair share of battles against the WSU's & OSU's, who didn't have super stadiums and/or FOB's. NOT THE CASE TODAY. Although a few rare kids will seek PT at a B5 school (e.g. Rypien to Boise), the majority are obsessed with the "Now" culture, and see the brand new/upgraded stadiums, all the new FOB's around the P12, and significantly greater TV exposure. Plus, the odds of playing in bigger/better bowls is significantly higher. So now you see the rosters of MW & other B5 teams loaded with 2-3 star recruits. Yes, some can becomes superstars/play in the Super bowl, but the odds of a 4-5 star having that same success is significantly higher.