|
Post by standiego on Oct 24, 2014 11:01:39 GMT -8
Bottom line IMO Shrigley was not able to make 3 point shots at a consistent rate , the lowest of the four players in the chart during MW play . How he compares to Polee , Kell , Pope this year we will find out . I also believe it is more important to get the guys down low involved in the offense /production then waiting for Shrigley or others to get hot from three point land . Bill feel confident you can come up with a chart showing the % of rebounds or follow up points for the Aztecs on threes vs missed shots taken down low . Also think Sky and the guys down low could create some positive scoring opportunities near the basket that other teams may find difficult to match up with . Also feel if Sky and the guys feel involved in the offense would really boost the whole Aztec offensive production UNLV , and UNM lost some strong guys down low , did replace them with speed .
|
|
|
Post by AztecBill on Oct 24, 2014 11:08:40 GMT -8
Bottom line IMO Shrigley was not able to make 3 point shots at a consistent rate , the lowest of the four players in the chart during MW play . How he compares to Polee , Kell , Pope this year we will find out . I also believe it is more important to get the guys down low involved in the offense /production then waiting for Shrigley or others to get hot from three point land . Bill feel confident you can come up with a chart showing the % of rebounds or follow up points for the Aztecs on threes vs missed shots taken down low . Also think Sky and the guys down low could create some positive scoring opportunities near the basket that other teams may find difficult to match up with . Also feel if Sky and the guys feel involved in the offense would really boost the whole Aztec offensive production UNLV , and UNM lost some strong guys down low , did replace them with speed . That is an interesting stat that I wish I had. Are 3 point shots or 2 point shots rebounded more often by the offense? I don't know. I can imagine arguments for either one but without stats, it is unknown. It is important, if the difference is significant, in comparing the value of 3 point shooting versus 2 point shooting. The one big advantage that 2 point shooting already has built-in is getting fouled and shooting free throws. I looked and found this very interesting article. The coaches should be asked to look at it. courtvisionanalytics.com/where-do-rebounds-go/It states that inside shots are rebounded at a much higher percentage by the offense than jump shots. Another good reason to attack the basket. But it also shows where the hot spots are for rebounding based upon where the shot is taken. That should be used. You can dribble too much You can shoot too much You can even pass too much But you can Never, Never Rebound too much.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2014 12:12:24 GMT -8
You can dribble too much You can shoot too much You can even pass too much But you can Never, Never Rebound too much.[/quote]
I agree. You can, however, have too many offensive rebound chances. Obviously, that is a function off missed shots.
|
|
|
Post by sdsustoner on Oct 24, 2014 13:57:59 GMT -8
Bill has some great analytical skills.
|
|
|
Post by smoothcat on Oct 25, 2014 16:28:39 GMT -8
Shrigley is my local guy from here in Carlsbad, I root for him to succeed.
That said, everyone at the wing positions is going to be fighting for minutes and some guys are no doubt going to be disappointed in their lack of minutes.
To me, it isn't only shooting Shrigley needs to improve on, it is also playing a more consistent overall game and not just being a designated sniper.
|
|
|
Post by longtimebooster on Oct 25, 2014 16:58:26 GMT -8
Shrigley shot 41% on 3s from the open of the season to game 16 (16 Games) on January 15 against Fresno State. Shrigley missed 14 3 point shots in a row from game 17 through game 20 (4 Games). Aztecs won all those games. Shrigley shot 40% on 3s for the rest of the season (17 Games). As I pointed out many times during the season last year, Shrigs tanked about as hard as a shooter could tank during the middle third of the season. He not only missed 14 treys in a row, he was something like 3-for-32 at one point during his slump. He finished fairly strong, but that mid-season nosedive was about as bad a shooting slump as I've seen at SDSU. If Shrigs is going to be a go-to catch-and-shoot guy, we need him shooting 43%+ from the outside consistently.
|
|
|
Post by AztecBill on Oct 25, 2014 20:53:41 GMT -8
Shrigley shot 41% on 3s from the open of the season to game 16 (16 Games) on January 15 against Fresno State. Shrigley missed 14 3 point shots in a row from game 17 through game 20 (4 Games). Aztecs won all those games. Shrigley shot 40% on 3s for the rest of the season (17 Games). As I pointed out many times during the season last year, Shrigs tanked about as hard as a shooter could tank during the middle third of the season. He not only missed 14 treys in a row, he was something like 3-for-32 at one point during his slump. He finished fairly strong, but that mid-season nosedive was about as bad a shooting slump as I've seen at SDSU. If Shrigs is going to be a go-to catch-and-shoot guy, we need him shooting 43%+ from the outside consistently. 43% is 129 points per 100 possessions. 120 was the value for the best offense in the NCAA last year. 43% would be great but we don't "need" that. 38% would be fine. Shrigley's slump was 2-22. The game before he was 3-6 and the game after he was 4-7. The majority of the slump was 3 consecutive games going 0-4. The slump started 1-3 and ended 1-3. So it really was a 0-16 slump over 6 games one of which he didn't attempt a shot. So 5 games, 2 of which were only 0-2. It really is just the 3 0-4 games in a row.
|
|
|
Post by Aztec For Life on Oct 26, 2014 12:38:29 GMT -8
So many of those shots during that slump were good looks that were half way down before popping out. I remember thinking it was just terrible luck and glad coach let him shoot out of the slump.
|
|
|
Post by aztech on Oct 26, 2014 13:49:10 GMT -8
Shrigley shot 41% on 3s from the open of the season to game 16 (16 Games) on January 15 against Fresno State. Shrigley missed 14 3 point shots in a row from game 17 through game 20 (4 Games). Aztecs won all those games. Shrigley shot 40% on 3s for the rest of the season (17 Games). As I pointed out many times during the season last year, Shrigs tanked about as hard as a shooter could tank during the middle third of the season. He not only missed 14 treys in a row, he was something like 3-for-32 at one point during his slump. He finished fairly strong, but that mid-season nosedive was about as bad a shooting slump as I've seen at SDSU. If Shrigs is going to be a go-to catch-and-shoot guy, we need him shooting 43%+ from the outside consistently. Jesus, give the kid a break. This is only his 2nd season which is when most guys make their stride.
|
|
|
Post by standiego on Oct 26, 2014 17:46:52 GMT -8
2014 -15 season , so everyone gets a brand new start . My basic thought is prefer move movement with out the ball by all the guys and would really enjoy it if the offense actually included both the center and PF , so they were more involved in the offense .. Usually that means a higher FG% , more follow up shots for baskets, fouls on the other team . Working to get open near the basket . There are not many teams in the MW, that can match up with Spencer / Chol/ JJ-O / Cheatham, if they are working at scoring near the basket. If they are a threat then it opens it up for our other scorers/shooters as well .
|
|
|
Post by sdsustoner on Oct 27, 2014 5:58:13 GMT -8
So many of those shots during that slump were good looks that were half way down before popping out. I remember thinking it was just terrible luck and glad coach let him shoot out of the slump. Some of his shots were awful too. I think his confidence waned a little during the slump. He got out of it and made some big shots for us later on. I think he will get better. It was his freshman season. That being said, every Aztec who doesn't produce is in danger of having minutes reduced. Not just Shrigs.
|
|
|
Post by longtimebooster on Oct 27, 2014 18:07:01 GMT -8
43% would be great but we don't "need" that. 38% would be fine. Actually, we do. Maybe not 43%, but at least 40%+. That's what the catch-and-shoot guys on the big-boy teams do. Furthermore, it isn't just about scoring. It's about keeping the defense honest. When you have a guy who can make outside shots, it stretches the D and clears room in the paint so guys can maneuver, pass, drive and rebound. It's a big deal. We've sucked at outside shooting for the most part over the past 5 years. It'd be nice if we could knock down more of those buckets. We'd then be a ridiculously difficult team to defend.
|
|
|
Post by AztecBill on Oct 27, 2014 20:18:50 GMT -8
43% would be great but we don't "need" that. 38% would be fine. Actually, we do. Maybe not 43%, but at least 40%+. That's what the catch-and-shoot guys on the big-boy teams do. Furthermore, it isn't just about scoring. It's about keeping the defense honest. When you have a guy who can make outside shots, it stretches the D and clears room in the paint so guys can maneuver, pass, drive and rebound. It's a big deal. We've sucked at outside shooting for the most part over the past 5 years. It'd be nice if we could knock down more of those buckets. We'd then be a ridiculously difficult team to defend. My problem is that I take the definition of words literally.
|
|
|
Post by fisherville on Oct 27, 2014 20:45:15 GMT -8
43% would be great but we don't "need" that. 38% would be fine. Actually, we do. Maybe not 43%, but at least 40%+. That's what the catch-and-shoot guys on the big-boy teams do. Furthermore, it isn't just about scoring. It's about keeping the defense honest. When you have a guy who can make outside shots, it stretches the D and clears room in the paint so guys can maneuver, pass, drive and rebound. It's a big deal. We've sucked at outside shooting for the most part over the past 5 years. It'd be nice if we could knock down more of those buckets. We'd then be a ridiculously difficult team to defend. Sure, and three point shooters that shoot 38% on high volume keep defenses honest, and hopefully kell does same and shoots a nice % as a freshman. Kentucky made the title game without anyone shooting over 36% from three.
|
|
|
Post by standiego on Oct 28, 2014 10:04:01 GMT -8
Seem to hear Coach Fisher say numerous times . "Scorer or Score the basketball". Personally prefer guys that can score almost 50% of the time they shoot . Yes it does spread the guys out if an opponent can be quality 3 point shooter hitting 40 % from there , but it also helps our guys if we have a reliable threat or two down low ,so the other team has to keep players down low and free up our wings or outside shooters , so it works both ways . Spencer , Chol, JJ -O , Cheatham would also draw fouls and that on the Bill- O - Metrics also increases our point totals and fouls on them . Also on another chart was the likely hood of rebounds on the shots near the basket . Do not really care as much where we Score from but just that we score more often and per possession. Also enjoy when we move more without the ball , see more passes and get more guys involved then a catch and shoot three , when there is over 25 seconds on the clock .
|
|
|
Post by AztecBill on Oct 28, 2014 10:59:03 GMT -8
Seem to hear Coach Fisher say numerous times . "Scorer or Score the basketball". Personally prefer guys that can score almost 50% of the time they shoot . Yes it does spread the guys out if an opponent can be quality 3 point shooter hitting 40 % from there , but it also helps our guys if we have a reliable threat or two down low ,so the other team has to keep players down low and free up our wings or outside shooters , so it works both ways . Spencer , Chol, JJ -O , Cheatham would also draw fouls and that on the Bill- O - Metrics also increases our point totals and fouls on them . Also on another chart was the likely hood of rebounds on the shots near the basket . Do not really care as much where we Score from but just that we score more often and per possession. Also enjoy when we move more without the ball , see more passes and get more guys involved then a catch and shoot three , when there is over 25 seconds on the clock . Shooting 2 point baskets (inside) is better in two ways that weighted shooting percentages don't show. 1. More offensive rebounds. 2. More free throws. The best offensive player the Aztecs will likely face this season is a guard who shot 22% from 3 point range.
|
|
|
Post by standiego on Oct 28, 2014 11:24:55 GMT -8
Utah's D.Wright, 6'5" Guard, is a projected NBA first round selection. As noted 15.5 PPG , 56% FG , 80, % FT , only 22 % 3P% . Also averaged 7 rebounds , 5 assists, 2 steals and 2 TO's per game last year. They do have B. Taylor who is a 40% 3PT shooter .
|
|