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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 8:50:21 GMT -8
Counting stars may be more beneficial than wishing on them but it's a pretty elementary way of comparing recruiting classes. Want to thoroughly compare recruiting classes? Check the 247Sports composite to get a numerical score*, check the number of offers from P5 schools and G5 schools** and check recruits' "Phil Steele number" to see how his composite ranked them according to the position played. Although time consuming, it really isn't difficult to do that.
* For the statistically challenged, consider this. The scouting services give ratings of 1-5 stars. In theory. Since no FBS recruits ever receive just one star, the system is therefore really one of 2, 3, 4 or 5 stars. In contrast, the 247 system gives FBS recruits ratings of 70-100 thereby providing vastly more specificity.
** Granted, there are always diamonds in the rough. However, in this day and age, they're few and far between. Therefore, recruits with no other FBS offers even from G5 schools have to be viewed with skepticism.
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Post by standiego on Sept 10, 2014 9:30:31 GMT -8
As gundoaztec and I have stated your QB can be your game breaker especially when you get to crunch time - for a tight game . OSU had a good highly rated QB last year and he is back with even more experience then QK this year . How many quality QB's beat the Aztecs last year , even the first game of the Aztec OOC season last year. Comes down to better athleticism and decision making . NC 's QB rose to the occasion plus their other skill players on both sides of the ball and under pressure. Other then blow outs football can boil down to 4th quarter games, does not matter who dominated the game but who dominates the end of the game.
It seems that the higher rated players or *'s , are better athletes to start their college careers and able to make contributions earlier . How many true Freshman have been able to contribute to the Aztec program , DP did but how many others? The quality P5 schools get more 4 and 5 star guys and they make a difference . NC and OSU do not get that many but they still get a couple and it does add up , especially later in the game when players wear down and you may need to be playing more of your reserves .
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 10, 2014 10:06:32 GMT -8
I guess I will have to retract my statement that we are close to Oregon State in recruiting. Well, if you look at the class of 2014, you will see that we are indeed close. The two previous Beaver classes were better than the '14 one.
But I will definitely stick to my basic theory, which is that the star rating system is generally a pretty good indication of how one player stacks up with another. Sure, Joe Muscles rated at 5.4 points (2 stars) by Rivas may in the final analysis be just as good as . . . or better than . . . Cory Crackback rated at 5.5 (3 stars). But it's exceedingly unlikely that either will prove to be as good as Stanley Starman rated 6.1 (5 stars). We could have, and should have beaten Oregon State last year and North Carolina this year. Both were winnable games.
But even in those winnable games we fell short at a . . . many would say THE . . . most critical position. P5 schools generally do not have to rely on walk-ons to play QB. We have been lucky in that our former walk-on has played pretty well most of the time. But to win these close games against P5 schools, we will need to recruit more 3-stars athletles, and at least a few 4-star men, as well.
Speaking of recruiting the level of QB that we need, look at this list from NFL.com, August 20 of this year. Notice that ALL the top 10 prospects come from P5 schools. You have to look at the also-to-be-watched supplementary list find a guy from a G5 school.
NFL.com Aug. 20th, 2014
1. James Winston Fla St.
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon
3. Brett Hundley, UCLA
4. Bryce Petty, Baylor
5. Sean Mannion, Oregon St.
6. Connor Cook, Michigan St.s
7. Kevin Hogan, Stanford
8. Christian Hackenberg, Penn St.
9. Jared Goff, Cal
10. Anthony Jennings, LSU
Others to watch: Devin Gardner, Michigan; Taylor Kelly, Arizona State;
Chuckie Keeton, Utah State; Jacob Coker, Alabama
SDSU is so much better than 8-10 years ago. But we're not there yet. Right now, with our current roster, I doubt we would win more than 2 conference games if we were in the Pac-12, the ACC, etc. Maybe not even 2.
How to remedy the situation? Somehow, some way, we have to win the next few games against P5 schools. Okay, how about winning more than one? Or at least one?
AzWm
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 10:26:23 GMT -8
If not for a few poorly timed TOs/play calling and a blown coverage by our secondary for the 91 yard TD, we would've beat the snot out of a UNC team that has significantly more "stars" on their roster then we do. Stars matter for sure, but matching talent to scheme and building a strong culture are extremely important as well(Guess what Rocky did...).
We may not have the depth to play a P5 schedule and come out on the other end bowl eligible yet.....but we do have the talent to do what Boise spent the last decade doing, taking advantage of the 1 to 2 big games they had every year and winning the rest that they should. We are so close I can taste it....this is good a distraction while we wait to play OSU but until we run the table and go to an Access bowl or get the call up from a P5 our recruiting wont change much.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 11:10:54 GMT -8
I guess I will have to retract my statement that we are close to Oregon State in recruiting. Well, if you look at the class of 2014, you will see that we are indeed close. The two previous Beaver classes were better than the '14 one. But I will definitely stick to my basic theory, which is that the star rating system is generally a pretty good indication of how one player stacks up with another. Well, I'll say this. Rocky Long's persistent insistence that the ratings services don't know their head from a hole in the ground is simply incorrect. As an example, I can't seem to find a linked article I thought I had bookmarked but about a year and a half ago a writer went to the trouble of analyzing what percentage of 4- and 5-star HS recruits were drafted in comparison to 2- and 3-star recruits and the difference was vast. |
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Post by aztech on Sept 10, 2014 18:27:07 GMT -8
It's really not as much about where these kids were rated out of HS, as the difference between a 3* and a 2* is neglible. The big difference is in how they have developed (read coaching) in their first couple of years at the D-1 level. As long as we continue to promote graduate assistants to position coaches, and retreads as coordinators, I would question the development of our kids compared to any Pac-12 school (who can pay to get the best available coaching talent). I'm siding with Rocky who says he doesn't recruit to the stars. I also feel that a 3* signed by a P5 school is a 2* signed by a G5 school. The reason is these recruiting services cater to P5 fans. They're the ones who subscribe and buy the rags based on sheer numbers. JMO |
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 11, 2014 15:58:08 GMT -8
If not for a few poorly timed TOs/play calling and a blown coverage by our secondary for the 91 yard TD, we would've beat the snot out of a UNC team that has significantly more "stars" on their roster then we do. Stars matter for sure, but matching talent to scheme and building a strong culture are extremely important as well(Guess what Rocky did...). We may not have the depth to play a P5 schedule and come out on the other end bowl eligible yet.....but we do have the talent to do what Boise spent the last decade doing, taking advantage of the 1 to 2 big games they had every year and winning the rest that they should. We are so close I can taste it....this is good a distraction while we wait to play OSU but until we run the table and go to an Access bowl or get the call up from a P5 our recruiting wont change much.
That's like saying: Well other than John Wilkes Booth's unscheduled cameo appearance, the evening at Ford's Theater was a resounding success. The fact is that those crucial errors WERE made. QK is good, but not great. Might a 4 or 5 star QB have avoided at least one . . . JUST ONE . . . of those crucial errors? Had either of the two big ones, the TD int and the last int, not been made, we would have left North Carolina with that much sought after win.
I think it's clear this program has gotten to the stage at which a super effort can get us very, very close to a big win. But that's the problem; even with a super effort we just are not really up to the level of Top-25 teams. We will have arrived when we are strong enough so that it does not take a super effort to win games against the elite schools.
Frankly, I think we were stronger, vis a vis contemporary college teams, in the 1970s. And how about the game against USC in 1992? We should have won that one for sure, but the fact that we had to settle for a tie cannot be attributed to inferior players. I think that objective observers probably felt that the Aztecs' personnel were just as good as the Trojan's that day.
The point is just this; we still have a long way to go to line up on more or less equal terms with teams such as North Carolina.
(Question; who was the best Aztec QB since 1980? Maybe posters could list their top 5 QBs.)
AzWm
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 11, 2014 16:04:01 GMT -8
It's really not as much about where these kids were rated out of HS, as the difference between a 3* and a 2* is neglible. The big difference is in how they have developed (read coaching) in their first couple of years at the D-1 level. As long as we continue to promote graduate assistants to position coaches, and retreads as coordinators, I would question the development of our kids compared to any Pac-12 school (who can pay to get the best available coaching talent). I'm siding with Rocky who says he doesn't recruit to the stars. I also feel that a 3* signed by a P5 school is a 2* signed by a G5 school. The reason is these recruiting services cater to P5 fans. They're the ones who subscribe and buy the rags based on sheer numbers. JMO But a 3-star recruit who might not be much if at all better than a 2-star at SDSU, is almost certainly well below a 5-star guy with USC, Ohio State, or Alabama. Again I say, the star system is definitely imperfect, but is probably not too far off base most of the time. We need to recruit very few 2s, mostly 3s, and a few 4s. When that happens, and provided that we have a really good staff, then the big wins will start coming. And wins against CSU, New Mexico, etc., will be routine. AzWm |
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 11, 2014 16:08:33 GMT -8
Here's something that might be worth a look. Go to Rivals.com and check out recent recruiting classes for some Top-25 type teams. Then check out some classes at Idaho, Eastern Michigan, New Mexico State, and Florida International. Then check out the recruits for FCS schools such as Texas Southern or Southern Utah. You won't even find many 2-star recruits among that last group.
AzWm
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Post by aztech on Sept 11, 2014 16:10:15 GMT -8
I'm siding with Rocky who says he doesn't recruit to the stars. I also feel that a 3* signed by a P5 school is a 2* signed by a G5 school. The reason is these recruiting services cater to P5 fans. They're the ones who subscribe and buy the rags based on sheer numbers. JMO But a 3-star recruit who might not be much if at all better than a 2-star at SDSU, is almost certainly well below a 5-star guy with USC, Ohio State, or Alabama. Again I say, the star system is definitely imperfect, but is probably not too far off base most of the time. We need to recruit very few 2s, mostly 3s, and a few 4s. When that happens, and provided that we have a really good staff, then the big wins will start coming. And wins against CSU, New Mexico, etc., will be routine. AzWm I recall several years ago we had a DB who signed as a 2* and decided to go to one of the Oregon schools. He got upgraded to 3* when it was announced. Coincidence? NOT! |
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Post by HollywoodAztec on Sept 19, 2014 9:05:53 GMT -8
I think we stack up well and can be competitive against the bottom half of the PAC12. Yea we just feast off them right now padding our record. Be serious. the P10 is way above our level including the dregs. See UNC last Saturday. Heck they're in the ACC and we couldn't beat them. I was serious when I said "competitive" (against the bottom half of the PAC12). I'm not sure if you simply misinterpreted my remark but do you really think that we were not "competitive" against UNC? However, I certainly hope you weren't serious when you stated that the dregs of the PAC12 are way above our level. |
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