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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 9, 2014 10:32:01 GMT -8
We are about to play Oregon State, a team that many if not most Aztec fans think we can beat. I'm one of them, but I thought that last year, too, and we all know what happened. But that got me thinking (again) about how we stack up against schools that are members of P5 conferences. One way to evaluate the quality of players a school is recruiting is to examine what the recruiting services thought of them as they were leaving H.S. I am using Rivals.com as my source.
First, let's look at the class of '14 for two P5 schools, one ranked near the top most years (i.e., Top-15) and one that has been down for a long time. I am listing the number of players for each school who were rated 4-star athletes, 3-star athletes, etc.
USC: class of 2014 5 stars = 2 4-stars = 9 3-stars = 8 2-stars = 0 Not rated = 0
Purdue : class of 2014 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 1 3-stars = 8 2-stars = 10 Not rated = 0
Now, let's look at the recruiting classes of 2012, 2013, and 2014 of both SDSU and Oregon State.
Oregon St. 2014 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 18 2-stars = 9
2013 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 1 3-stars = 21 2-stars = 3
2012 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 2 3-stars = 16 2-stars = 5
San Diego State 2014 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 10 2-stars = 14 Not rated = 1
2013 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 8 2-stars = 15 Not rated = 0
2012 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 6 2-stars = 14 Not rated = 2 (one of whom was Derek Largent)
We seem to match up fairly well with the Beavers. At least we are close. And note that the 2014 Oregon State class isn't quite as impressive star-wise as the previous two, while our classes are slowly improving in that regard. Of course, we are galaxies away from USC; But consider Purdue; they are rock bottom in the Big-10 but are still slightly ahead of us.
Please, let's not have any posts telling me that the star system is meaningless. It is not. Imperfect, yes. Meaningless, no. Sure, there will always be a few late bloomers or really good players who fall through the cracks. And players with modest talent can become serious contributors with the proper coaching. But overall the more stars the better.
That's why agonizing losses to a North Carolina or an Oregon State hurt so badly. Consistently win those games and we will see more 3-stars guys and maybe a few 4-stars come our way.
AzWm
PS: By the way, Craft actually did get a number of 4-star recruits, but I'm not sure how many ended up helping us.
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Post by RockNFish on Sept 9, 2014 10:40:05 GMT -8
If you have time, could you post UNC's numbers - would be interesting to see.
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Post by standiego on Sept 9, 2014 10:50:15 GMT -8
The most important guy on the field is the QB . Do not know how many stars the OSU QB was , but he can easily be the difference maker .
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Post by HollywoodAztec on Sept 9, 2014 10:57:30 GMT -8
I think we stack up well and can be competitive against the bottom half of the PAC12.
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Post by Sdsu4life on Sept 9, 2014 11:10:29 GMT -8
We are about to play Oregon State, a team that many if not most Aztec fans think we can beat. I'm one of them, but I thought that last year, too, and we all know what happened. But that got me thinking (again) about how we stack up against schools that are members of P5 conferences. One way to evaluate the quality of players a school is recruiting is to examine what the recruiting services thought of them as they were leaving H.S. I am using Rivals.com as my source. First, let's look at the class of '14 for two P5 schools, one ranked near the top more years and one that has been down for a long time. I am listing the number of players for each school who were rated 4-star athletes, 3-star athletes, etc. USC: class of 2014 5 stars = 2 4-stars = 9 3-stars = 8 2-stars = 0 Not rated = 0 Purdue : class of 2014 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 1 3-stars = 8 2-stars = 10 Not rated = 0 Now, let's look at the recruiting classes of 2012, 2013, and 2014 of both SDSU and Oregon State. Oregon St.2014 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 18 2-stars = 9 2013 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 1 3-stars = 21 2-stars = 3 2012 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 2 3-stars = 16 2-stars = 5 San Diego State2014 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 10 2-stars = 14 Not rated = 1 2013 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 8 2-stars = 15 Not rated = 0 2012 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 6 2-stars = 14 Not rated = 2 (one of whom was Derek Largent) We seem to match up fairly well with the Beavers. At least we are close. And note that the 2014 Oregon State class isn't quite as impressive star-wise as the previous two, while our classes are slowly improving in that regard. Of course, we are galaxies away from what USC; But consider Purdue; they are rock bottom in the Big-10 but are still slightly ahead of us. Please, let's not have any posts telling me that the star system is meaningless. It is not. Imperfect, yes. Meaningless, no. Sure, there will always be a few late bloomers or really good players who fall through the cracks. And players with modest talent can become serious contributors with the proper coaching. But overall the more stars the better. That's why agonizing losses to a North Carolina or an Oregon State hurt so badly. Consistently win those games and we will see more 3-stars guys and maybe a few 4-stars come our way. AzWm PS: By the way, Craft actually did get a number of 4-star recruits, but I'm not sure how many ended up helping us. Good work. But, based on purely the star system, we do not match up well at all with the Beavers. In the past 3 years, while the have signed 3 four stars and 55 three stars, we have only signed 24 three stars. So, based purely on the star system, they blow us out of the water.
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Post by darksidereturns on Sept 9, 2014 11:16:58 GMT -8
The most important guy on the field is the QB. If you were to make this your signature, you wouldn't have to type it in every post. Would save you 15-20 minutes a day easy.
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Post by sdcoug on Sept 9, 2014 11:26:16 GMT -8
We are about to play Oregon State, a team that many if not most Aztec fans think we can beat. I'm one of them, but I thought that last year, too, and we all know what happened. But that got me thinking (again) about how we stack up against schools that are members of P5 conferences. One way to evaluate the quality of players a school is recruiting is to examine what the recruiting services thought of them as they were leaving H.S. I am using Rivals.com as my source. First, let's look at the class of '14 for two P5 schools, one ranked near the top more years and one that has been down for a long time. I am listing the number of players for each school who were rated 4-star athletes, 3-star athletes, etc. USC: class of 2014 5 stars = 2 4-stars = 9 3-stars = 8 2-stars = 0 Not rated = 0 Purdue : class of 2014 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 1 3-stars = 8 2-stars = 10 Not rated = 0 Now, let's look at the recruiting classes of 2012, 2013, and 2014 of both SDSU and Oregon State. Oregon St.2014 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 18 2-stars = 9 2013 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 1 3-stars = 21 2-stars = 3 2012 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 2 3-stars = 16 2-stars = 5 San Diego State2014 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 10 2-stars = 14 Not rated = 1 2013 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 8 2-stars = 15 Not rated = 0 2012 5 stars = 0 4-stars = 0 3-stars = 6 2-stars = 14 Not rated = 2 (one of whom was Derek Largent) We seem to match up fairly well with the Beavers. At least we are close. And note that the 2014 Oregon State class isn't quite as impressive star-wise as the previous two, while our classes are slowly improving in that regard. Of course, we are galaxies away from what USC; But consider Purdue; they are rock bottom in the Big-10 but are still slightly ahead of us. Please, let's not have any posts telling me that the star system is meaningless. It is not. Imperfect, yes. Meaningless, no. Sure, there will always be a few late bloomers or really good players who fall through the cracks. And players with modest talent can become serious contributors with the proper coaching. But overall the more stars the better. That's why agonizing losses to a North Carolina or an Oregon State hurt so badly. Consistently win those games and we will see more 3-stars guys and maybe a few 4-stars come our way. AzWm PS: By the way, Craft actually did get a number of 4-star recruits, but I'm not sure how many ended up helping us. Good work. But, based on purely the star system, we do not match up well at all with the Beavers. In the past 3 years, while the have signed 3 four stars and 55 three stars, we have only signed 24 three stars. So, based purely on the star system, they blow us out of the water. Was going to say the same thing. The stats seem to contradict the finding. OSU has significantly more higher rated players. As for star ratings, I actually do think they're relatively meaningless when you're talking 2-star & 3-star talent. Where I do think you see meaning is in the # of 4-star & especially 5-star players. Name the last national champion who didn't have 5-star talent? 2 & 3-star are all players who are "developing" or mid-tier - it's easy to miss on those, and you see several 2-star who prove critics wrong and are simply late bloomers. Especially along the lines. That doesn't mean we can't compete with OSU; we proved we could (at home) last year, so don't need to analyze the stars to figure that out. However, another key stat which is just as important if not MORE important is experience. Steele ranks OSU at #51 nationally in combined experience; SDSU is #104. OSU has more senior-level experience, and return more players from last year's match-up. They will be the best team we face all year IMO. If you have equal talent then typically maturity & experience play into deciding the game. Ultimately, we can act immaturely - we need to win the TO battle or we don't have a prayer. Manning can't sit in the pocket.
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Post by thetruth on Sept 9, 2014 11:39:36 GMT -8
It's really not as much about where these kids were rated out of HS, as the difference between a 3* and a 2* is neglible. The big difference is in how they have developed (read coaching) in their first couple of years at the D-1 level. As long as we continue to promote graduate assistants to position coaches, and retreads as coordinators, I would question the development of our kids compared to any Pac-12 school (who can pay to get the best available coaching talent).
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Post by FULL_MONTY on Sept 9, 2014 11:48:57 GMT -8
Scout is the better service for football.
State 2011 (0) 4* (13) 3* (10) 2* 2012 (0) 4* (6) 3* (14) 2* 2013 (0) 4* (8) 3* (15) 2* 2014 (0) 4* (10) 3* (15) 2*
Oregon State 2011 (0) 4* (7) 3* (6) 2* 2012 (2) 4* (16) 3* (5) 2* 2013 (1) 4* (21) 2* (3) 2* 2014 (0) 4* (17) 3* (9) 2*
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Post by kozy on Sept 9, 2014 11:54:08 GMT -8
I think we stack up well and can be competitive against the bottom half of the PAC12. Yea we just feast off them right now padding our record. Be serious. the P10 is way above our level including the dregs. See UNC last Saturday. Heck they're in the ACC and we couldn't beat them.
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 9, 2014 15:06:01 GMT -8
Here are the stats for the North Carolina recruiting classes of 2012-2014.
2012
5 stars = 0 4 stars = 2 3 stars =14 2 stars = 1
2013
5 stars = 0 4 stars = 2 3 stars =13 2 stars = 1
2014
5 stars = 1 4 stars = 3 3 stars =13 2 stars = 1
Obviously, being a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference enables one to get carloads of above average recruits. We can't come close to what UNC is doing in that area.
AzWm
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 9, 2014 15:07:51 GMT -8
By the way, would anyone care to explain the difference between Rivals and Scout? I use Rivals, but perhaps more from habit than anything else.
AzWm
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Post by FULL_MONTY on Sept 9, 2014 15:52:57 GMT -8
Rivals is good for basketball recruting and poor for football reporting.
Just my experience.
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Post by aztec70 on Sept 9, 2014 16:27:41 GMT -8
It's really not as much about where these kids were rated out of HS, as the difference between a 3* and a 2* is neglible. The big difference is in how they have developed (read coaching) in their first couple of years at the D-1 level. As long as we continue to promote graduate assistants to position coaches, and retreads as coordinators, I would question the development of our kids compared to any Pac-12 school (who can pay to get the best available coaching talent). Have you noticed the team is better now than when Chuck Long was coach?
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Post by podpeople on Sept 9, 2014 16:55:16 GMT -8
It's really not as much about where these kids were rated out of HS, as the difference between a 3* and a 2* is neglible. The big difference is in how they have developed (read coaching) in their first couple of years at the D-1 level. As long as we continue to promote graduate assistants to position coaches, and retreads as coordinators, I would question the development of our kids compared to any Pac-12 school (who can pay to get the best available coaching talent). this a true sentiment. Just look at Dillon Baxter. He came out of highschool the player of the year, won all sorts of awards, and rarely saw the field. This all had to do with coaching... albeit more likely due to his high school coaching.
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Post by Gundo on Sept 10, 2014 1:49:08 GMT -8
The game is going to be a match between Mike Riley an Rocky Long. The difference maker is Sean Mannion, count all the stars you want. Mannion is a 1st to 3rd round NFL pick and we have QK. Otherwise we're at a dead heat, with a tad better defense. This game is won and lost on the sidelines and at the QB position. We can't continue to turn the ball over against pressure D.
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Post by HighNTight on Sept 10, 2014 7:39:42 GMT -8
The game is going to be a match between Mike Riley an Rocky Long. The difference maker is Sean Mannion, count all the stars you want. Mannion is a 1st to 3rd round NFL pick and we have QK. Otherwise we're at a dead heat, with a tad better defense. This game is won and lost on the sidelines and at the QB position. We can't continue to turn the ball over against pressure D. Just a reminder about last year ... same sidelines, same QBs as this year -- but unlike you, I expect different results SAN DIEGO -- Sean Mannion threw three touchdowns and Oregon State scored three times in the fourth quarter to come from behind and defeat San Diego State 34-30 on Saturday night. After Mannion hit Terron Ward for a 10-yard score to pull Oregon State within 30-28, cornerback Steven Nelson intercepted Quinn Kaehler's pass and returned it 16 yards to give the Beavers the lead with 2:38 remaining in the game. Kaehler, who was making his first career start, was intercepted again on the next possession by Ryan Murphy to seal the win for the Beavers. It's their second win in five games against the Aztecs. Mannion completed 38 of 55 attempts for 367 yards, and the Oregon State rushing game was held to just 2 yards. Ward ran 10 times for 25 yards, but Mannion lost 23 yards on four attempts. Kaehler completed 16 of 24 passes for 251 yards and two touchdowns after taking over the starting job when Adam Dingwell injured his back last week against Ohio State. Adam Muema rushed a career-high 28 times for 71 yards and a touchdown.
San Diego State jumped out to an early lead by scoring on the opening possession of the game. Kaehler hit Donnel Pumphrey on a 23-yard pass to put the Aztecs on top 7-0 with 11:44 remaining in the first quarter. Oregon State answered with a 1-yard run from Ward to even the score at 7-7 and widened the lead to 14-7 on a 2-yard pass from Mannion to tight end Kellen Clute. The Aztecs tied the score on the ensuing possession when Kaehler threw an 80-yard touchdown to Colin Lockett on the first play of the drive. They took a 27-14 lead after Wes Feer added a pair of field goals, including a career-long 45-yarder, and Muelma scored on a 4-yard run. Beavers head coach Mike Riley made his return to Qualcomm Stadium after having coached the San Diego Chargers from 1999-2001. He finished with a 14-34 record as head coach in San Diego.
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Post by aztecfankrishnan on Sept 10, 2014 7:49:09 GMT -8
By the way, would anyone care to explain the difference between Rivals and Scout? I use Rivals, but perhaps more from habit than anything else. AzWm IMO Nationally the player ratings are better on Scout, but for Aztec coverage it is not even close. Rivals blows away Scout when it comes to reporting on the Aztecs. Scout doesn't even have a writer assigned to SDSU. I think Ruben does a fantastic job covering both football and basketball.
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 10, 2014 7:55:10 GMT -8
I think we stack up well and can be competitive against the bottom half of the PAC12. Yea we just feast off them right now padding our record. Be serious. the P10 is way above our level including the dregs. See UNC last Saturday. Heck they're in the ACC and we couldn't beat them. Wouldn't you say we "stack up well" against UNC ? I wouldn't say the bottom half...maybe the bottom third: OSU WSU Colorado Cal Is that the bottom third? To get to half we have to add two of the middle third: Washington Arizona Arizona State Utah I guess we could match up OK. The top 3rd would take a perfect storm to beat: UCLA USC Oregon Stanford
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Post by matteosandiego on Sept 10, 2014 8:44:36 GMT -8
Great information on the recruiting.
One thing (amongst many) that factors into all this, just backs up how much our coaches are coaching their @$$ OFF! Developing players, teaching the players the schemes, and having the RIGHT scheme to begin with are all part of coaching philosophies.
Coach Rocky & staff have done a great job in raising the overall quality of young athletes to the program, and his philosophies in scheme are effective that we are consistently competitive against better rated athletes. Keep raising the bar slowly but surely and SDSU is bound to breakout and break into that upper echelon player.
And lastly... All those bottom half PAC12 teams steal away many California kids (San Diego kids). If we can keep 1 or 2 of our California kids from each team, over time SDSU will be soo much better. I believe.
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