Missouri game in 2010. Good idea or bad?

[AztecWilliam]

I have very mixed feelings about the Missouri game next year that appears to be close to being a done deal. Sure, the money would be good (but only if it's well above half a mil), and a win there would be huge.

But let's be realistic. Beating Missouri will be very, very tough to do back there. It's a 3 to 1 probable loss in my view. How would that loss affect the Aztecs' chances to go to a bowl next year? I will assume wins over Nicholls State and New Mexico State (though NM St. may not be chopped liver by next season). If we hope to reach 7 wins next year, which is what we should be shooting for, a 2-2 non-conference record means that we would have to go 5-3 in the MWC.

Where would we get those 5 wins in conference play? I will begin with the assumption that we probably will not beat any of the top three in '10. We will have to play BYU and TCU (a team that loses only about a dozen players) in Provo and Ft. Worth. Utah comes here and of the three may be our best chance for a W, though it will be very tough to pull off.

Assuming that we lose to BYU, TCU, and Utah, we would have to beat everybody else to reach 5 wins in conference and 7 over all.. What are the odds that we will be able to beat AFA, CSU, Wyoming, New Mexico, and UNLV all in the same year? 50/50 maybe? Maybe not even odds that good. Could happen, but that trick may be nearly as hard as beating one of the Big Three.

So 4 conference wins may be a our best expectation in the MWC in 2010. All that adds up to another 6-6 season (and even that assumes Ws over Wyoming and UNLV this year).

I realize that the money is important, but achieving a winning season is just huge. 6-6 this year and next would mean TWELVE consecutive non-winning seasons. Furthermore, two .500 seasons would take a bit of bloom off the Hoke rose, and we do NOT want another coach to begin losing support in the community.

As I said, I hope Mizu is going to unload a ton of cash on us.

AzWm

[aztecx]

Nevada was not going to be a pushover next year. They have a great coach and an awesome returing QB.
I like Mizzou next year because of the money.
We still will have a resaonable chance of going 3-1 OCC next year.

[aztecwin]

Nevada was going to be just about as tough a game as Missouri minus the payout. We just might be good enough to give them a game and that would be a great step for us.

[AztecWilliam]

My face is red! I now realize that my arithmetic was faulty. Even with Missouri we will have three winnable games in non-conference next year. Those would be Utah State (the opponent I was forgetting), Nicholls State, and New Mexico State. I continue to believe that New Mexico State may not be so easy to beat next year. For that matter, Utah State is not a sure thing, either. . . certainly not compared with Nicholls State. (As you can see from their current record, the Colonels are a good stand-in for Southern Utah.

09/05/09 at Air Force L, .................72-0
09/12/09 vs. Duquesne W, .........14-7
09/19/09 at Louisiana Tech L, ........48-13
09/26/09 vs. Jacksonville State L, ...60-10
10/10/09 at Sam Houston State L, ..44-21
10/17/09 vs. Texas State L, ...........34-28
10/24/09 at Central Arkansas L, ......42-13
10/31/09 vs. Mcneese State L, ........38-17
11/07/09 at Stephen F. Austin L, .....31-27
11/14/09 vs. Northwestern State
11/19/09 at Southeastern Louisiana )

3-1 is doable in non-conference next year. But that's what I said about this year, as well. Anyway, if we can win the 3 winnable games in non-conference and then break even in the MWC, we will have achieved what has eluded the Aztecs since 1998. . . a SEVEN WIN SEASON. Whoo whoo!

AzWm