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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2013 15:11:28 GMT -8
Sure thing, Bill. LOL.
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Post by rockshow on Nov 25, 2013 16:21:56 GMT -8
I'm fine with Venable and Denorfia platooning in right field. That's a top 10 right field situation in my mind and probably a strength in our offense. Especially if they just produce like last season. We need CF and 1B production, especially power numbers, IMO.
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 25, 2013 18:02:59 GMT -8
Continue to show your ignorance if you want. Will had 113 AB with RSIP and you take that as gospel. That is not enough ABs to make a decision that he can't hit with runners in scoring position. He hit .353 with RISP in 2012. Maybe his 85 ABs in 2012 with RISP wasn't enough ABs. How many does it take? Was his 146 ABs leading off an inning in 2012 enough? He hit .209. Did that "prove" he can't leadoff? In 2013 he hit .304 leading off. Hitting with RISP is too small a sample size to prove anything. Players difference in hitting with RISP over the years is the same as would be seen with simple variance due to chance. Statisticians have shown this to be true. The skill of hitting with RISP is the skill hitting - period.
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 25, 2013 18:07:30 GMT -8
I'm fine with Venable and Denorfia platooning in right field. That's a top 10 right field situation in my mind and probably a strength in our offense. Especially if they just produce like last season. We need CF and 1B production, especially power numbers, IMO. Venable was given the chance to hit against lefties and did well. I think he deserves a chance to play full time and show what he can do.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2013 18:47:47 GMT -8
Continue to show your ignorance if you want. Will had 113 AB with RSIP and you take that as gospel. That is not enough ABs to make a decision that he can't hit with runners in scoring position. He hit .353 with RISP in 2012. Maybe his 85 ABs in 2012 with RISP wasn't enough ABs. How many does it take? Was his 146 ABs leading off an inning in 2012 enough? He hit .209. Did that "prove" he can't leadoff? In 2013 he hit .304 leading off. Hitting with RISP is too small a sample size to prove anything. Players difference in hitting with RISP over the years is the same as would be seen with simple variance due to chance. Statisticians have shown this to be true. The skill of hitting with RISP is the skill hitting - period. Where did I say he was a bad hitter with RISP? Go back and read it. I said he was abysmal last season with RISP. He was. And? For his career he is a decent .263 AVG with a .746 OPS. We were discussing last seasons stats, I provided a few.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2013 18:50:41 GMT -8
Continue to show your ignorance if you want. Will had 113 AB with RSIP and you take that as gospel. That is not enough ABs to make a decision that he can't hit with runners in scoring position. He hit .353 with RISP in 2012. Maybe his 85 ABs in 2012 with RISP wasn't enough ABs. How many does it take? Was his 146 ABs leading off an inning in 2012 enough? He hit .209. Did that "prove" he can't leadoff? In 2013 he hit .304 leading off. Hitting with RISP is too small a sample size to prove anything. Players difference in hitting with RISP over the years is the same as would be seen with simple variance due to chance. Statisticians have shown this to be true. The skill of hitting with RISP is the skill hitting - period. Situational hitting is important to any franchise. Hitting with RISP, among other things. Last year, Venable wasn't productive in a lot of these situations. That could change in 2013. You've consistently proven yourself inferior intellectually in a baseball conversation, why should this be any different?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2013 18:53:54 GMT -8
I'm fine with Venable and Denorfia platooning in right field. That's a top 10 right field situation in my mind and probably a strength in our offense. Especially if they just produce like last season. We need CF and 1B production, especially power numbers, IMO. Venable was given the chance to hit against lefties and did well. I think he deserves a chance to play full time and show what he can do. His success vs. lefties last season we can agree on. Him and Denorfia had almost identical OPS. Though, Denorfia had 85 more AB's vs. lefties, so he has a bigger sample size. Prior to 2013, Venable had struggled some vs. LHP
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Post by rockshow on Nov 25, 2013 20:47:41 GMT -8
Venable was given the chance to hit against lefties and did well. I think he deserves a chance to play full time and show what he can do. His success vs. lefties last season we can agree on. Him and Denorfia had almost identical OPS. Though, Denorfia had 85 more AB's vs. lefties, so he has a bigger sample size. Prior to 2013, Venable had struggled some vs. LHP Didn't realize that. Yeah I'm not opposed to giving Venable a chance full time. If he doesn't repeat last years second half performance, then you cut ties and go younger or a FA.
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 26, 2013 10:00:37 GMT -8
Situational hitting is important to any franchise. Hitting with RISP, among other things. Last year, Venable wasn't productive in a lot of these situations. That could change in 2013. You've consistently proven yourself inferior intellectually in a baseball conversation, why should this be any different? You said he had issues and listed hitting with RISP as one. I am glad you now changed you tune. Hitting with RISP is not a skill. Any difference between that and BA is most all luck.
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Post by rockshow on Nov 26, 2013 10:34:47 GMT -8
Situational hitting is important to any franchise. Hitting with RISP, among other things. Last year, Venable wasn't productive in a lot of these situations. That could change in 2013. You've consistently proven yourself inferior intellectually in a baseball conversation, why should this be any different? You said he had issues and listed hitting with RISP as one. I am glad you now changed you tune. Hitting with RISP is not a skill. Any difference between that and BA is most all luck. I think I disagree. Obviously I didn't play beyond high school do my experience isn't a good indicator, but when there are RISP, there is more to think about/more pressure. Sometimes it's harder to lay off that breaking ball or at least for me, my swing would change a little trying to drive the ball to the outfield for a sac fly. I don't know. There has to be some hitters who are consistently more clutch. Stats are important, but there is also a mental toughness/focus aspect to the game that I can't deny exists.
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 26, 2013 11:05:52 GMT -8
You said he had issues and listed hitting with RISP as one. I am glad you now changed you tune. Hitting with RISP is not a skill. Any difference between that and BA is most all luck. I think I disagree. Obviously I didn't play beyond high school do my experience isn't a good indicator, but when there are RISP, there is more to think about/more pressure. Sometimes it's harder to lay off that breaking ball or at least for me, my swing would change a little trying to drive the ball to the outfield for a sac fly. I don't know. There has to be some hitters who are consistently more clutch. Stats are important, but there is also a mental toughness/focus aspect to the game that I can't deny exists. Players in the major leagues don't take at bats off. If they did they would have been weeded out long before getting to the major leagues. Statistical studies have shown no correlation from year to year in the difference between BA and BA/RISP for individual players. Players who lead the league one year are at the bottom the next. For instance, the player who caused this discussion went from .358 to .209 in one year. Last year I posted the 10 leaders in BAwRISP-BA in the NL during 2011 and the stats showing 6 of the 10 had a lower BAwRISP than BA in 2012. It is luck. Last year someone brought up Joey Votto who for 3 years had a better BAwRISP than his overall BA. My response was that there would be players like that since it is luck. You can flip 3 heads in a row. That doesn't mean your chance of another heads is higher. Joey Votto last year had a lower BAwRISP than otherwise. The coin came up tails.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2013 13:19:15 GMT -8
Situational hitting is important to any franchise. Hitting with RISP, among other things. Last year, Venable wasn't productive in a lot of these situations. That could change in 2013. You've consistently proven yourself inferior intellectually in a baseball conversation, why should this be any different? You said he had issues and listed hitting with RISP as one. I am glad you now changed you tune. Hitting with RISP is not a skill. Any difference between that and BA is most all luck. I did? Here's my quote: He was abysmal with RISP (.204 with a .528 OPS) and even worse with RISP and 2 outs (.172 and .486 OPS). Read more: www.aztecmesa.proboards.com/thread/33757/padres-sign-josh-johnson?page=2#scrollTo=607587#ixzz2lmwz4StIHe WAS awful with RISP last year. And in my opinion (and many others), situational hitting including hitting with RISP is a skill. It's not blind luck, random chance, etc. Is there luck and other factors involved? Yes. No problem, we can agree to disagree. As I said, that piece to it is MY opinion.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2013 14:14:56 GMT -8
For discussion: www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/wp/2013/11/05/matt-williamss-favorite-stat-risp-batting-average/“My favorite stat right now and always has been the stat of hitting with runners in scoring position,” Williams said. “Because batting average and on-base percentage and all of those things are great, but who is doing damage and how can they hit with guys in scoring position? I don’t know if I can help guys with that, but that’s the stat that I’m most concerned with, that I like the most. So do, I care whether a guy’s hitting .250 as opposed to .280? No, I care whether he can drive a run in. And there’s more than one way to do that. Given guys’ talents and what they can do, I’m a proponent of the safety squeeze, I’m a proponent of the squeeze play, I’m a proponent of the double steal and taking advantage of that opportunity if given. Those type of things present themselves during the course of a game.”
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2013 14:18:12 GMT -8
That's from former Giant, Indian, and Diamondback Matt Williams. New Nationals manager. A guy most would say is pretty tuned in with major league baseball. Just one guys take. beyondthescorecard.blogspot.com/2013/09/batting-with-runners-in-scoring-position.html"The top 5 teams in baseball in number of base runners will be playing in October and the worst playoff-bound teams in terms of base runners are Atlanta (17th) and Pittsburgh (18th). It's a two-way street--teams need to get runners on base and then have them score. It's no coincidence that some of the best at hitting with RISP just happen to be among the best hitters PERIOD--the two very much go hand in hand."
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Post by rockshow on Nov 26, 2013 15:35:02 GMT -8
Yeah. Situational hitting is a skill. Why would every hitter be coached at it. If I know there is a runner on third with less than two outs, I'm gonna try to hit a fly ball. Some hitters are better at that than others.
I choose to believe there are hitters who can lock in and hit a line drive with runners on and the team needs it most. I just think that some players (typically the better hitters) can do that. Now if a .220 hitter hits .300 with RISP it might be a fluke. But if a .265 hitter consistently hits .300 w RISP I think there's something to it. And if a .280 hitter seems to always hit .200 w/ RISP, I choose to believe there is an extra level of focus. There is a "clutch" factor in all of sports. Every athlete in a team sport will tell you that.
It's a gene. A personality trait. It's cliche but some people really do want the responsibility when everything is on the line and some people don't.
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 26, 2013 18:28:30 GMT -8
Yeah. Situational hitting is a skill. Why would every hitter be coached at it. If I know there is a runner on third with less than two outs, I'm gonna try to hit a fly ball. Some hitters are better at that than others. I choose to believe there are hitters who can lock in and hit a line drive with runners on and the team needs it most. I just think that some players (typically the better hitters) can do that. Now if a .220 hitter hits .300 with RISP it might be a fluke. But if a .265 hitter consistently hits .300 w RISP I think there's something to it. And if a .280 hitter seems to always hit .200 w/ RISP, I choose to believe there is an extra level of focus. There is a "clutch" factor in all of sports. Every athlete in a team sport will tell you that. It's a gene. A personality trait. It's cliche but some people really do want the responsibility when everything is on the line and some people don't. Statisticians took every players difference between BA and BAwRISP over 30 years of data and ran correlations for players across years. They found no correlation. Players do not have the ability to suddenly hit better with RISP. You can feel that something must be so but statistics proves you wrong. When you look at lifetime numbers the difference between BA and BAwRISP become much closer. The noise of individual seasons is gone. For instance: Tony Gwynn lifetime BA .335 Tony Gwynn lifetime BAwRISP .335 Just because "some people really do want the responsibility" doesn't mean they do any better in those instances. I invite you to find the player who you think is better with RISP. There have been studies in basketball and "clutch" doesn't exist. Supposed "clutch" players are no better during those "clutch" moments. That includes Michael Jordon.
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 26, 2013 19:27:18 GMT -8
I remember Padres fans so excited about how clutch Mark Loretta was.
Lifetime
.300 BA .297 BA with RISP
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 26, 2013 19:41:13 GMT -8
RISP is pretty lame stuff. Virtually all experts agree it is luck. The real fireworks start when a study says hitting streaks or the hot hand in basketball doesn't exist. I don't go that far. Studies have come down on both sides of the issue. I tend to believe hot streaks are real and not statisical inevitabilities.
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Post by Section T(urn Up) on Nov 26, 2013 21:22:54 GMT -8
My only thought is that there's a difference between predictive statistics and evaluative statistics. RISP tells *what* happened. It doesn't lie about productivity (like pitcher Wins do), but it doesn't *predict* whether a guy will be a better hitter or not. Either way, it's a pretty silly debate to get into IMO. Good players play well. The Padres don't do well because their players haven't been good enough to play well. It has nothing to do with RISP moving forward.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2013 9:01:32 GMT -8
Yeah. Situational hitting is a skill. Why would every hitter be coached at it. If I know there is a runner on third with less than two outs, I'm gonna try to hit a fly ball. Some hitters are better at that than others. I choose to believe there are hitters who can lock in and hit a line drive with runners on and the team needs it most. I just think that some players (typically the better hitters) can do that. Now if a .220 hitter hits .300 with RISP it might be a fluke. But if a .265 hitter consistently hits .300 w RISP I think there's something to it. And if a .280 hitter seems to always hit .200 w/ RISP, I choose to believe there is an extra level of focus. There is a "clutch" factor in all of sports. Every athlete in a team sport will tell you that. It's a gene. A personality trait. It's cliche but some people really do want the responsibility when everything is on the line and some people don't. Good post. Furthermore, I would say situational hitting requires plate discipline and smarts. If you have a man on third and less than two outs, you do want that fly ball or at least a grounder to the right side (if the infield is not in). That doesn't mean you can get that done even the majority of the time, but there is a skill involved for better hitters.
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