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Post by AztecBill on Nov 20, 2013 11:18:51 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2013 12:05:37 GMT -8
I really like this signing. Obviously Johnson has had health issues for years now, but if he can get right he has front of the rotation ability. If I am not mistaken, he won the NL ERA title 4 or 5 years ago pitching for the Marlins. Also, if he makes less than 7 starts the Pads have a $4M option on him.
I think SD has quality pitching depth going into 2014. The rotation and bullpen could be really good, TBD on the offense.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2013 12:10:32 GMT -8
"The Padres likewise can reap the benefits of augmenting an already-deep rotation with a potential top-flight starter. Where Johnson will slot among Padres pitchers depends on his return from an Oct. 1 surgery to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, but with Ian Kennedy, Andrew Cashner, Eric Stults, Tyson Ross, Robbie Erlin, Burch Smith and the rehabbing Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland, both returning from Tommy John surgery, San Diego could head into the year with a surfeit of starters – or perhaps dangle one in a trade for a bat." sports.yahoo.com/news/josh-johnson-signs-one-year-deal-with-padres-050033908.html"The upside for the Padres is enormous. Should Johnson recapture his success of years past – his career ERA is 3.40, even after the unsightly 6.20 last year – he becomes one of three things: an important piece of a contending San Diego team, a great trade chip come July or a player worthy of a qualifying offer who fetches San Diego a draft pick if he signs elsewhere"
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Post by Section T(urn Up) on Nov 20, 2013 12:44:04 GMT -8
Never hate a one-year deal, but this one does look particularly sweet for the Pads. Read on MLBTR that Johnson's agent approached the Giants and Padres because he lives out west and he wanted a one-year deal to reestablish his value on the market. Obviously the Giants and Padres have fantastic parks for pitchers; I'm surprised this hasn't happened more often.
Whether anybody else believes it, I think the Padres front office thinks they're ready to compete now. I really don't think they're far away if the pitching depth doesn't get decimated again.
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 20, 2013 13:47:15 GMT -8
Johnson will turn 30 early next year. He has had a number of years with less than 100 innings due to injuries - 2005, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2013. Signing is a gamble but well worth the chance. In years he was able to pitch over 100 innings his stats are real nice. | Starts | Innings | ER | BB | SO | W | L | WAR | WHIP | ERA | 2006 | 24 | 157 | 54 | 68 | 133 | 12 | 7 | 3.6 | 1.30 | 3.10 | 2009 | 33 | 209 | 75 | 58 | 191 | 15 | 5 | 6.4 | 1.16 | 3.23 | 2010 | 28 | 183.2 | 47 | 48 | 186 | 11 | 6 | 6.8 | 1.11 | 2.30 | 2012 | 31 | 191.1 | 81 | 65 | 165 | 8 | 14 | 3.1 | 1.28 | 3.81 | Avg/Sum | 116 | 741 | 257 | 239 | 675 | 46 | 32 | 4.98 | 1.21 | 3.11 |
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Post by aztecmusician on Nov 20, 2013 14:56:08 GMT -8
Another injury prone starter? He should fit right in. Hopefully this doesn't blow all of the free agent budget, the everyday lineup still needs a few more quality hitters.
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Post by Section T(urn Up) on Nov 20, 2013 23:39:56 GMT -8
Another injury prone starter? He should fit right in. Hopefully this doesn't blow all of the free agent budget, the everyday lineup still needs a few more quality hitters. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.htmlThere's the list. Who do you want them to get? Grandal/Hundley aren't bad options at catcher, and with Austin Hedges potentially ready to take over in 2015 it seems silly to blow their cash on someone like Saltalamacchia. McCann would be interesting as an option to move to 1B upon Hedges' arrival, but Alonso is pretty good and getting better. That should eliminate options like Kendrys Morales (if sacrificing your first round pick doesn't bother you enough already). After Cano, the next best second baseman is Omar Infante and Gyorko is significantly better than him. Headley plays 3B, but if he didn't I doubt you'd get too excited over Juan Uribe or a 35-year-old Kevin Youklis. Everth Cabrera is the Padres guy at SS; I don't love him but Stephen Drew and no 1st round pick isn't worth the gamble to me. Johnny Peralta should have been in my notes about 3B really, but he's not worth the money that will be thrown at a SS in this market either. As the game moves back to a pitching/defense mold, shortstops are no longer a dime a dozen because teams are realizing they would rather have the Jose Iglesias' than the Johnny Peraltas. In my book, Maybin is the center fielder and deserves a shot at a healthy season. Obviously Ellsbury and Granderson would be improvements over him, and I would fully support an effort to sign one of those guys (as would every single other team). I think the reality is that you would vastly overpay for either of them, but Granderson could be a sneaky good signing for someone who doesn't mind bailing on the Ellsbury sweepstakes. Venable and Denorfia are a pretty good platoon in RF, and Quentin is in left. Are we at the point where a bad contract for a 33-year-old Nelson Cruz is what we are begging for over decent production from Venable/Deno? I've been saying for a while, the Padres are a lot closer to competing than the fans think. If your stance is Ellsbury or bust, fine I guess. However it seems silly to throw around the same old accusations when, if you look at this team, there's really not *that* many missing pieces. They've done a nice job building up to the point where they should be competitive over the next few seasons--and they can loosen the purse strings to keep around the core. If they don't do that, which would be typical for the Padres, *then* you can complain about not spending money. But it's not 2002 any more and there aren't a ton of options on the market that are better than the young core the Padres have.
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Post by rockshow on Nov 20, 2013 23:52:12 GMT -8
Shin Soo Choo would be a solid option for CF. Bring Maybin back and have them compete for the starting job. If Maybin proves he can play, move Choo to left when Quentin inevitably gets hurt.
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Post by Section T(urn Up) on Nov 21, 2013 0:41:13 GMT -8
Shin Soo Choo would be a solid option for CF. Bring Maybin back and have them compete for the starting job. If Maybin proves he can play, move Choo to left when Quentin inevitably gets hurt. Agree to an extent. I don't think Choo is a center fielder, whereas I think Maybin has the tools to be an elite contributor defensively. I do think Quentin is good for 80-100 games and is, honestly, the player I would be most ok with the Padres moving in order to improve. As much as Deno/Venable is a good platoon, a Deno/Maybin/Venable outfield is very weak. Choo could play a full season rotating between all the positions in the outfield without it being an issue I imagine, but it's tough to go out and sign a guy who will cost you north of 5 years and $100 million without being sure where you're playing him. It's definitely a way I hadn't considered for them to improve though. I fear the Padres have Fuentes in mind as a backup option if Maybin falls through. He's a fish out of water in centerfield and is, in my opinion, a fifth outfielder/fringe major leaguer.
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Post by rockshow on Nov 21, 2013 1:01:17 GMT -8
Shin Soo Choo would be a solid option for CF. Bring Maybin back and have them compete for the starting job. If Maybin proves he can play, move Choo to left when Quentin inevitably gets hurt. Agree to an extent. I don't think Choo is a center fielder, whereas I think Maybin has the tools to be an elite contributor defensively. I do think Quentin is good for 80-100 games and is, honestly, the player I would be most ok with the Padres moving in order to improve. As much as Deno/Venable is a good platoon, a Deno/Maybin/Venable outfield is very weak. Choo could play a full season rotating between all the positions in the outfield without it being an issue I imagine, but it's tough to go out and sign a guy who will cost you north of 5 years and $100 million without being sure where you're playing him. It's definitely a way I hadn't considered for them to improve though. I fear the Padres have Fuentes in mind as a backup option if Maybin falls through. He's a fish out of water in centerfield and is, in my opinion, a fifth outfielder/fringe major leaguer. 5 years- 100 million? I must be out of touch. I was thinking he could be had for something like 4 years 45 mil. Being a padre fan, I don't keep a close eye on how much spending is going on in the free agent market.
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Post by Section T(urn Up) on Nov 21, 2013 1:21:24 GMT -8
Agree to an extent. I don't think Choo is a center fielder, whereas I think Maybin has the tools to be an elite contributor defensively. I do think Quentin is good for 80-100 games and is, honestly, the player I would be most ok with the Padres moving in order to improve. As much as Deno/Venable is a good platoon, a Deno/Maybin/Venable outfield is very weak. Choo could play a full season rotating between all the positions in the outfield without it being an issue I imagine, but it's tough to go out and sign a guy who will cost you north of 5 years and $100 million without being sure where you're playing him. It's definitely a way I hadn't considered for them to improve though. I fear the Padres have Fuentes in mind as a backup option if Maybin falls through. He's a fish out of water in centerfield and is, in my opinion, a fifth outfielder/fringe major leaguer. 5 years- 100 million? I must be out of touch. I was thinking he could be had for something like 4 years 45 mil. Being a padre fan, I don't keep a close eye on how much spending is going on in the free agent market. Ha, fair enough. He's listed as MLBTRs #3 overall free agent. He's a stat-head darling in that he's 31 with a career slash line of .288/.389/.465. They predict he'll sign with the Tigers and say he deserves better than Hunter Pence's 5-years, 90M deal with the Giants.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2013 13:09:24 GMT -8
As a lifelong Tribe fan, I'm very familiar with Choo. Great plate discipline, decent pop, and can steal bags. Great outfield arm.
That being said, his downside is he is abysmal vs. lefties. I think I read his average was like .215 vs. lefties last year with zero of his homers coming against the southpaws. He may be just a few years away from being a full time platoon player.
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Post by rockshow on Nov 21, 2013 13:46:31 GMT -8
As a lifelong Tribe fan, I'm very familiar with Choo. Great plate discipline, decent pop, and can steal bags. Great outfield arm. That being said, his downside is he is abysmal vs. lefties. I think I read his average was like .215 vs. lefties last year with zero of his homers coming against the southpaws. He may be just a few years away from being a full time platoon player. Play Maybin and Quentin against lefties. Problem solved!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2013 18:31:57 GMT -8
Choo will get FAR too much money to be a platoon guy. No shot.
He's a Boras guy and figures like 5 years, $100M have been floated. Doesn't mean he'll get that, but I doubt the final number is far off from that.
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 22, 2013 9:03:37 GMT -8
Another injury prone starter? He should fit right in. Hopefully this doesn't blow all of the free agent budget, the everyday lineup still needs a few more quality hitters. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.htmlThere's the list. Who do you want them to get? Grandal/Hundley aren't bad options at catcher, and with Austin Hedges potentially ready to take over in 2015 it seems silly to blow their cash on someone like Saltalamacchia. McCann would be interesting as an option to move to 1B upon Hedges' arrival, but Alonso is pretty good and getting better. That should eliminate options like Kendrys Morales (if sacrificing your first round pick doesn't bother you enough already). After Cano, the next best second baseman is Omar Infante and Gyorko is significantly better than him. Headley plays 3B, but if he didn't I doubt you'd get too excited over Juan Uribe or a 35-year-old Kevin Youklis. Everth Cabrera is the Padres guy at SS; I don't love him but Stephen Drew and no 1st round pick isn't worth the gamble to me. Johnny Peralta should have been in my notes about 3B really, but he's not worth the money that will be thrown at a SS in this market either. As the game moves back to a pitching/defense mold, shortstops are no longer a dime a dozen because teams are realizing they would rather have the Jose Iglesias' than the Johnny Peraltas. In my book, Maybin is the center fielder and deserves a shot at a healthy season. Obviously Ellsbury and Granderson would be improvements over him, and I would fully support an effort to sign one of those guys (as would every single other team). I think the reality is that you would vastly overpay for either of them, but Granderson could be a sneaky good signing for someone who doesn't mind bailing on the Ellsbury sweepstakes. Venable and Denorfia are a pretty good platoon in RF, and Quentin is in left. Are we at the point where a bad contract for a 33-year-old Nelson Cruz is what we are begging for over decent production from Venable/Deno? I've been saying for a while, the Padres are a lot closer to competing than the fans think. If your stance is Ellsbury or bust, fine I guess. However it seems silly to throw around the same old accusations when, if you look at this team, there's really not *that* many missing pieces. They've done a nice job building up to the point where they should be competitive over the next few seasons--and they can loosen the purse strings to keep around the core. If they don't do that, which would be typical for the Padres, *then* you can complain about not spending money. But it's not 2002 any more and there aren't a ton of options on the market that are better than the young core the Padres have. I like Venable in CF. That allows the Padres to trade for a stud RF. My sites are on Giocarlo Stanton of Miami. We have the pieces to get him. I would be willing to give up some of the furture for two years of Stanton.
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Post by Section T(urn Up) on Nov 22, 2013 12:37:58 GMT -8
1. Grandal/Hundley aren't bad options at catcher, and with Austin Hedges potentially ready to take over in 2015 it seems silly to blow their cash on someone like Saltalamacchia. 2. Alonso is pretty good and getting better. That should eliminate options like Kendrys Morales (if sacrificing your first round pick doesn't bother you enough already). 3. Everth Cabrera is the Padres guy at SS 4. In my book, Maybin is the center fielder and deserves a shot at a healthy season. 5. Venable and Denorfia are a pretty good platoon in RF, 6. and Quentin is in left. 7. I've been saying for a while, the Padres are a lot closer to competing than the fans think. 8. if you look at this team, there's really not *that* many missing pieces. 1. Hundley is fine IF we get a ML power hitter into one of the corner positions. Grandal is a waste of time. Hedges has no bat. 2. Alonso has no power. It might get better, but right now his numbers look like Wally Joyner's. This would be fine, again, IF we had power elsewhere. (I'm running out of times to be able to allow for this "if.") 3. I don't see it with Cabrera. His lifetime stats don't parallel the good half season he had; plus he might have to get off steroids and that won't help his numbers either. 4. Maybin isn't gonna happen. It's easy to like him and his crooked hat and all but I just don't see it. 5. Who was the last championship team to have a platoon in the outfield? The 1975 Reds? (Now watch, someone will name one from two years ago. 6. Quentin, like all other no-trade, "San Diego discount" guys, isn't the answer until he can get to 500 AB, which will never happen. 7. If you say it long enough, sooner or later you'll be right that Padres are ready to "compete." Even so, I want a front office who wants to win championships and who's willing to do their best to field one. 8. I see lots of missing pieces. Furthermore, some people think we have an upper-level rotation but all I see is a bunch of washups, never-were's, and dudes with sore arms. It isn't that I disagree with a lot of what you're saying, it's that the upgrades you want just aren't worth the price tag. For instance, Alonso at 1B. You're right that he doesn't have tons of pop--probably a 60 bat with 50 power and that would be fine in LF or at 2B, but who are you going to get to upgrade at 1B, and at what price? I think the Padres need a few guys to be significantly better than they've been, but you don't want to take someone perfectly "useful" and try to upgrade for another 30 points of OPS and 5 more homers in a season. Also, the game is changing entirely. You're right that Hedges has no bat at this point. Yadier Molina at Low-A as a 19-year-old slashed .280/.330/.381. Austin Hedges at Low-A as a 19-year-old slashed .279/.334/.451. Hedges did better in a day and age where offense is down. I'm not saying he'll be Yadier Molina, but Hedges *is* the future at catcher. He has a legit, NL All-Star caliber projection. Overall, I'm not predicting the Padres will be a playoff team or anything like that, but they're much closer to being the As, Orioles, Royals, Pirates than they are Miami, Minnesota, Chicago(s), Houstons of the world.
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Post by Section T(urn Up) on Nov 22, 2013 12:41:38 GMT -8
www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.htmlThere's the list. Who do you want them to get? Grandal/Hundley aren't bad options at catcher, and with Austin Hedges potentially ready to take over in 2015 it seems silly to blow their cash on someone like Saltalamacchia. McCann would be interesting as an option to move to 1B upon Hedges' arrival, but Alonso is pretty good and getting better. That should eliminate options like Kendrys Morales (if sacrificing your first round pick doesn't bother you enough already). After Cano, the next best second baseman is Omar Infante and Gyorko is significantly better than him. Headley plays 3B, but if he didn't I doubt you'd get too excited over Juan Uribe or a 35-year-old Kevin Youklis. Everth Cabrera is the Padres guy at SS; I don't love him but Stephen Drew and no 1st round pick isn't worth the gamble to me. Johnny Peralta should have been in my notes about 3B really, but he's not worth the money that will be thrown at a SS in this market either. As the game moves back to a pitching/defense mold, shortstops are no longer a dime a dozen because teams are realizing they would rather have the Jose Iglesias' than the Johnny Peraltas. In my book, Maybin is the center fielder and deserves a shot at a healthy season. Obviously Ellsbury and Granderson would be improvements over him, and I would fully support an effort to sign one of those guys (as would every single other team). I think the reality is that you would vastly overpay for either of them, but Granderson could be a sneaky good signing for someone who doesn't mind bailing on the Ellsbury sweepstakes. Venable and Denorfia are a pretty good platoon in RF, and Quentin is in left. Are we at the point where a bad contract for a 33-year-old Nelson Cruz is what we are begging for over decent production from Venable/Deno? I've been saying for a while, the Padres are a lot closer to competing than the fans think. If your stance is Ellsbury or bust, fine I guess. However it seems silly to throw around the same old accusations when, if you look at this team, there's really not *that* many missing pieces. They've done a nice job building up to the point where they should be competitive over the next few seasons--and they can loosen the purse strings to keep around the core. If they don't do that, which would be typical for the Padres, *then* you can complain about not spending money. But it's not 2002 any more and there aren't a ton of options on the market that are better than the young core the Padres have. I like Venable in CF. That allows the Padres to trade for a stud RF. My sites are on Giocarlo Stanton of Miami. We have the pieces to get him. I would be willing to give up some of the furture for two years of Stanton. I like Maybin's ceiling a lot more than Venable. I am not ready to give up on him; right handed hitters often take longer to develop and his track record through the minors is really much better than people probably think. And I don't think Miami will trade Stanton without a team overpaying. Power is at a premium, but I think if the Marlins were going to take something reasonable for him, they would have done it already.
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 22, 2013 15:39:43 GMT -8
I like Venable in CF. That allows the Padres to trade for a stud RF. My sites are on Giocarlo Stanton of Miami. We have the pieces to get him. I would be willing to give up some of the furture for two years of Stanton. I like Maybin's ceiling a lot more than Venable. I am not ready to give up on him; right handed hitters often take longer to develop and his track record through the minors is really much better than people probably think. And I don't think Miami will trade Stanton without a team overpaying. Power is at a premium, but I think if the Marlins were going to take something reasonable for him, they would have done it already. What a lot of people don't realize about Venable is that he is a late to the game player. His basketball career slowed his development right through college. He is just getting to the point of showing what he can do and is showing very well. Whne a 30 year old has a "career year", it is usually not a sure sign of things to come, but with late developers it often is. .268 .312 .484 .796 with good defense and speed makes him a valuable CF.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2013 20:09:08 GMT -8
Will Venable is what he is. He has value as a 4th OF, but if he's your every day guy you're probably going to have some issues. I like him just fine as a ballplayer, but let's call a spade a spade.
He is a 31 year old with a career .753 OPS who just had his best season. At his age, it's not as if he just hit his prime and we can expect an upward trend. Could he be better next season? Sure, but I doubt it.
He was abysmal with RISP (.204 with a .528 OPS) and even worse with RISP and 2 outs (.172 and .486 OPS).
His 2.9 WAR was slightly better than his 2012 number of 2.4.
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Post by AztecBill on Nov 25, 2013 14:04:17 GMT -8
Will Venable is what he is. He has value as a 4th OF, but if he's your every day guy you're probably going to have some issues. I like him just fine as a ballplayer, but let's call a spade a spade. He is a 31 year old with a career .753 OPS who just had his best season. At his age, it's not as if he just hit his prime and we can expect an upward trend. Could he be better next season? Sure, but I doubt it. He was abysmal with RISP (.204 with a .528 OPS) and even worse with RISP and 2 outs (.172 and .486 OPS). His 2.9 WAR was slightly better than his 2012 number of 2.4. RISP numbers are well known to be statistical flukes. Will got a late start in baseball is just finding his game. He has a much better chance to continue to improve than most 30 year olds.
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