Ian Kennedy at Petco versus Chase Field v Pads.

[AztecBill]

Ian Kennedy versus Padres at Chase Field (2011-2013)

3.64 ERA, 5 HR

Ian Kennedy versus Padres at Petco Park (2011-2013)

1.13 ERA, 0 HR

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The Padres hope the Petco Park will be very good for Ian Kennedy. He is a major fly ball pitcher:

Year	GB	FB	GB/FB
2010	222	340	0.65
2011	255	382	0.67
2012	255	384	0.66
2013	147	235	0.63

It is encouraging that his strikeout rate hasn't dropped:

	Innings	Ks	Ks/Inn
2010	194	168	86.6%
2011	222	198	89.2%
2012	208.33	187	89.8%
2013	124	108	87.1%

In 2011 he was 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA in 222 innings at 26 years old. He can get back to that level and better if Petco Park does its magic. He is a potential Ace.

[K2Aztec73]

That's pretty much what I was thinking when I heard they traded for him.
His "internal" numbers have always been good, even through his struggles the past couple of years. Moving from a major hitter's park to a major pitcher's park, especially one where fly balls aren't nearly as damaging as in Zonieland, could be the perfect catalyst to get him back in the groove. Case in point: Eric Stults... another flyball oriented pitcher. He's been outstanding at home, struggled on the road.
Kennedy, with much better "stuff" and a fairly high K/9 ratio, shouldn't have nearly as much falloff on the road, while being helped significantly at home. Definite Ace potential.

[Section T(urn Up)]

Aug 8, 2013 9:54:27 GMT -8 AztecBill said:

Ian Kennedy versus Padres at Chase Field (2011-2013)

3.64 ERA, 5 HR

Ian Kennedy versus Padres at Petco Park (2011-2013)

1.13 ERA, 0 HR

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The Padres hope the Petco Park will be very good for Ian Kennedy. He is a major fly ball pitcher:

Year	GB	FB	GB/FB
2010	222	340	0.65
2011	255	382	0.67
2012	255	384	0.66
2013	147	235	0.63

It is encouraging that his strikeout rate hasn't dropped:

	Innings	Ks	Ks/Inn
2010	194	168	86.6%
2011	222	198	89.2%
2012	208.33	187	89.8%
2013	124	108	87.1%

In 2011 he was 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA in 222 innings at 26 years old. He can get back to that level and better if Petco Park does its magic. He is a potential Ace.

Using the term "ace" extraordinarily loosely here in my opinion. Even if you don't subscribe to the notion that there's only 10-15 "aces" in baseball, I wouldn't say Ian Kennedy has much chance (1-2%) at becoming James Shields. I guess it's a matter of projection, but I think Kennedy is a solid #4 starter going forward. Maybe a 3. He'll eat innings and give the team a chance to win most nights. There's nothing wrong with that. I think the Padres did very well in the deal, but trying to pimp Kennedy as a potential ace is just setting him up for failure.

[AztecBill]

Aug 8, 2013 13:45:10 GMT -8 Section T(urn Up) said:

Using the term "ace" extraordinarily loosely here in my opinion. Even if you don't subscribe to the notion that there's only 10-15 "aces" in baseball, I wouldn't say Ian Kennedy has much chance (1-2%) at becoming James Shields. I guess it's a matter of projection, but I think Kennedy is a solid #4 starter going forward. Maybe a 3. He'll eat innings and give the team a chance to win most nights. There's nothing wrong with that. I think the Padres did very well in the deal, but trying to pimp Kennedy as a potential ace is just setting him up for failure.

When he was 26 he posted a 21-4 record with a 2.88 ERA pitching in a major hitters park. At 26 he was one of the top pitchers in baseball not in the 10-15 range but the 1-5 range. At 29 there is no reason he can't do as well, unless he lost something. There is no indication that he lost anything. 1%-2% chance of being what he was in 2011? I place it much higher than that.

I'll bet Kennedy has a better ERA next year than Peavy had for the White Sox during his 5 years there.

[Section T(urn Up)]

Aug 8, 2013 16:35:19 GMT -8 AztecBill said:

Aug 8, 2013 13:45:10 GMT -8 Section T(urn Up) said:

Using the term "ace" extraordinarily loosely here in my opinion. Even if you don't subscribe to the notion that there's only 10-15 "aces" in baseball, I wouldn't say Ian Kennedy has much chance (1-2%) at becoming James Shields. I guess it's a matter of projection, but I think Kennedy is a solid #4 starter going forward. Maybe a 3. He'll eat innings and give the team a chance to win most nights. There's nothing wrong with that. I think the Padres did very well in the deal, but trying to pimp Kennedy as a potential ace is just setting him up for failure.

When he was 26 he posted a 21-4 record with a 2.88 ERA pitching in a major hitters park. At 26 he was one of the top pitchers in baseball not in the 10-15 range but the 1-5 range. At 29 there is no reason he can't do as well, unless he lost something. There is no indication that he lost anything. 1%-2% chance of being what he was in 2011? I place it much higher than that.

Ignoring any baseball analysis, you could conclude that baseball people wouldn't trade an ace for a 70th pick, a situational lefty and a guy who, ideally, will be a late inning guy. The Rays got Wil Myers and more for Shields.

And if you're looking for reasons to doubt him you could look at his other 600 innings in the majors when he hasn't been nearly as good. At Petco his numbers will undoubtedly improve, but that won't change the fact that he's still not a guy you want pitching in game 1 or 2 of a playoff series.

[Section T(urn Up)]

Aug 8, 2013 17:00:31 GMT -8 John, Your Pal said:

Aug 8, 2013 16:35:19 GMT -8 AztecBill said:

At 29 there is no reason he can't do as well, unless he lost something. There is no indication that he lost anything.

There's at least ONE indication that he "lost something." The D-Bags traded him.

Still he's been good in the past and it's a good trade for the Padres.

And that's ignoring the whole "watching" thing.

[Deleted]

I like the trade fine, but always be suspicious when a team moves a valuable or once considered valuable piece for next to nothing. See: Braves send Tommy Hanson to Angels for Jordan Walden (they knew Hansons arm was dead), or Marlins send Cameron Maybin to the Padres for Edward Mujica.

Funny to see Mujica having big success in St. Louis right now as their closer.

[AztecBill]

Aug 9, 2013 20:18:39 GMT -8 @josh said:

I like the trade fine, but always be suspicious when a team moves a valuable or once considered valuable piece for next to nothing. See: Braves send Tommy Hanson to Angels for Jordan Walden (they knew Hansons arm was dead), or Marlins send Cameron Maybin to the Padres for Edward Mujica.

Funny to see Mujica having big success in St. Louis right now as their closer.

Teams make trade mistakes.

The "A"s traded Tyson Ross (born 4/22/87) to the Padres for Andy Parrino and Andrew Warner (born 2/25/87. 2 months older than Ross).

Andy Parrino is hitting .225 .306 .326 632 in "AAA".
Andrew Warner has 23 starts in "AAA" with a 6.16 ERA.

Hitters are hitting .185 .274 .238 .512 off Tyson Ross in his 8 starts. In those 8 starts he has a 2.08 ERA. Below are his 5 starts since rejoining the rotation:

I R
6 1
8 0
6 2
7 1
7 1
----
34 5 = 1.32 ERA

Teams make trade mistakes.

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I was at the game last night and really enjoyed watching Tyson Ross pitch. He topped out at 96 MPH but what really impressed me was his delivery. The batters must have a terrible time "picking up" the ball. Tyson is half way through his motion toward the plate before his hand is revealed from behind his back. Batters seem to not see the ball very well. I guess that is why he has only given up 17 hits in the 34 innings since his return to the starting rotation.

[Deleted]

Aug 16, 2013 13:05:11 GMT -8 AztecBill said:

Aug 9, 2013 20:18:39 GMT -8 @josh said:

I like the trade fine, but always be suspicious when a team moves a valuable or once considered valuable piece for next to nothing. See: Braves send Tommy Hanson to Angels for Jordan Walden (they knew Hansons arm was dead), or Marlins send Cameron Maybin to the Padres for Edward Mujica.

Funny to see Mujica having big success in St. Louis right now as their closer.

Teams make trade mistakes.

The "A"s traded Tyson Ross (born 4/22/87) to the Padres for Andy Parrino and Andrew Warner (born 2/25/87. 2 months older than Ross).

Andy Parrino is hitting .225 .306 .326 632 in "AAA".
Andrew Warner has 23 starts in "AAA" with a 6.16 ERA.

Hitters are hitting .185 .274 .238 .512 off Tyson Ross in his 8 starts. In those 8 starts he has a 2.08 ERA. Below are his 5 starts since rejoining the rotation:

I R
6 1
8 0
6 2
7 1
7 1
----
34 5 = 1.32 ERA

Teams make trade mistakes.

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I was at the game last night and really enjoyed watching Tyson Ross pitch. He topped out at 96 MPH but what really impressed me was his delivery. The batters must have a terrible time "picking up" the ball. Tyson is half way through his motion toward the plate before his hand is revealed from behind his back. Batters seem to not see the ball very well. I guess that is why he has only given up 17 hits in the 34 innings since his return to the starting rotation.

That scenario doesn't really exemplify what I was referring to. Obviously some trades work out better for teams than others.

I was referring to trading pieces generally well known among baseball fans, as "top prospects" or well known names for what appears to be a bargain. Buyer beware.