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Post by AztecBill on Jan 3, 2013 12:35:43 GMT -8
| Team | 12--4 | 11--5 | 10--6 | 9--7 | | Wyo | 7.4 | 10.3 | 14.1 | 19.3 | | SDSU | 11.9 | 16.4 | 22.3 | 29.6 | | UNLV | 13.7 | 18.3 | 23.9 | 30.5 | | UNM | 8 | 10.6 | 14.3 | 18.9 | | CSU | 12.8 | 17.4 | 23.3 | 30.5 | | BSU | 13 | 17.5 | 23.5 | 30.6 |
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Post by aztectone on Jan 3, 2013 12:50:28 GMT -8
hmm interesting. Would be sad to see a 9-7 boise team get snubbed but I think there is no way we get 6 teams in.
I would think we get 5 teams in the dance if non of the top 3 (sdsu, unlv, unm) wins the mw tourney
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 3, 2013 13:36:03 GMT -8
hmm interesting. Would be sad to see a 9-7 boise team get snubbed but I think there is no way we get 6 teams in. I would think we get 5 teams in the dance if non of the top 3 (sdsu, unlv, unm) wins the mw tourney If all 6 win all their home games and don't lose to the bottom 3, the worst RPI (all at 11-5) is projected to be #18. WOW. Our OOC results are really amazing. |
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Post by DeeMoney on Jan 3, 2013 14:20:41 GMT -8
Bill, I don't know how easy or hard it is for you to do this; but could you also add on the projected RPI for the Aztecs (at the various win totals) if they win the conference tourney?
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Post by aztec92 on Jan 3, 2013 14:29:54 GMT -8
Bill, I don't know how easy or hard it is for you to do this; but could you also add on the projected RPI for the Aztecs (at the various win totals) if they win the conference tourney? That's a little tough, you would need to predict who they play in the tournament. I suppose you could use the projected conf W-L to project the bracket, and assume the team with better conf record always win (excepting that SDSU always wins.) |
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 3, 2013 16:47:29 GMT -8
Bill, I don't know how easy or hard it is for you to do this; but could you also add on the projected RPI for the Aztecs (at the various win totals) if they win the conference tourney? That's a little tough, you would need to predict who they play in the tournament. I suppose you could use the projected conf W-L to project the bracket, and assume the team with better conf record always win (excepting that SDSU always wins.) Those projections are not mine but are RPI Forecast projections. RPI Forecast adds projections with conference tournaments a little later every year. When they appear, I will share.
The great thing about the MWC tournament is that the first game will not kill your RPI. Many conference top teams are killed by playing the bottom of the conference teams who have a very bad record. Our bottom teams records won't be near .500 but they won't be 4-24 either. If you are a #3 seed (in MWC tounament) you would play the #6 seed which would most likely be a team with a record around 19-9. That is an RPI boost while most teams in your situation will be playing RPI killers in the first round of their tournaments. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 4, 2013 16:12:06 GMT -8
The MWC is projected to be the #1 conference in RPI OOC and the #2 conference in RPI overall. The Big Ten is .0013 ahead of us in the latest projection of final conference RPIs. But Purdue hosts West Virgina on 1/19. If West Virgina wins it would move the Big 10 down enough so the MWC would again be projected to be the #1 overall RPI conference.
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Post by keepersdsu on Jan 4, 2013 16:34:32 GMT -8
How much money would the conference get if we got 6 teams in the tournament?
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Post by aztec92 on Jan 4, 2013 16:36:27 GMT -8
How much money would the conference get if we got 6 teams in the tournament? It depends on how many games they win. |
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Post by 1611Luginbill on Jan 4, 2013 16:37:34 GMT -8
How much money would the conference get if we got 6 teams in the tournament? It depends on how far each team goes. The MWC, historically, doesn't go far, so it's not a lot of money. |
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Post by aztec92 on Jan 4, 2013 16:40:03 GMT -8
How much money would the conference get if we got 6 teams in the tournament? It depends on how far each team goes. The MWC, historically, doesn't go far, so it's not a lot of money. Each game a team plays in they get 1 credit. A credit is worth somewhere around $200k. So the minimum they would earn is 1.2 million, paid over 6 years. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 7, 2013 11:23:06 GMT -8
It depends on how far each team goes. The MWC, historically, doesn't go far, so it's not a lot of money. Each game a team plays in they get 1 credit. A credit is worth somewhere around $200k. So the minimum they would earn is 1.2 million, paid over 6 years. The value of the credits goes up every year. It is paid over 6 years. So the value of each credit earned this year is around $2.6M over the 6 year period. For us the value is $0M, unless something changes. If 5 teams get in and 1 goes to the sweet 16 and one to the elite 8, it is $2.6M*10 = $26M (over 6 years). |
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Post by aztec92 on Jan 7, 2013 12:38:22 GMT -8
Each game a team plays in they get 1 credit. A credit is worth somewhere around $200k. So the minimum they would earn is 1.2 million, paid over 6 years. The value of the credits goes up every year. It is paid over 6 years. So the value of each credit earned this year is around $2.6M over the 6 year period. For us the value is $0M, unless something changes. If 5 teams get in and 1 goes to the sweet 16 and one to the elite 8, it is $2.6M*10 = $26M (over 6 years). I totally misunderstood how this works. I still don't entirely get it, but here's a decent write up. rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=ys-forbes-final_four_trip_worth_millions_031412 |
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 7, 2013 15:35:34 GMT -8
Updated | Team | 12--4 | 11--5 | 10--6 | 9--7 | | Wyo | 5.1 | 10.0 | 13.7 | 18.9 | | UNM | 10.7 | 14.4 | 18.9 | 24.7 | | SDSU | 11.0 | 15.3 | 20.7 | 28.2 | | CSU | 13.2 | 17.9 | 23.9 | 31.6 | | UNLV | 14.7 | 19.4 | 25.5 | 32.9 | | BSU | 24.5 | 31.9 | 40.5 | 50.1 |
The BSU numbers are wrong since RPIForcast doesn't include their home game against Wyoming. Wyoming and SDSU have got a little better and the rest a little worse. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 7, 2013 16:05:11 GMT -8
Texas Southern has gone 2-0 in conference play.
Texas Southern OOC 1-12 = .0769 Win Ratio
Texas Southern Now 3-12 = .2000 Win Ratio
Difference = .1231 win ratio
Texas Southern is one of 12 teams we have played So their Win Ratio is 1/12th our Opponents W/L Ratio.
.1231 / 12 = .0103
Opponents win % is 2/3rd of SOS
(.0103 / 3) * 2 = .0069
Texas Southern's two wins were worth an increase in SOS of .0069 points.
Jan 2: SDSU #163 in SOS
Jan 6: SDSU #120 in SOS
Arizona won two games over the weekend and our SOS didn't budge. That is because they had a 100% winning percentage and still do. The worse a team's W/L record, the more they help when they win. The better a team's W/L record, the less they help when they win.
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 7, 2013 16:18:26 GMT -8
Taking each team we have played and using their OOC records versus their projected final records and calculating the change that would affect in our SOS and therefore RPI is shown in the table below. | Team | SOS Change | | Texas Southern | .0100 | | Arkansas Pine Bluff | .0058 | | UCSB | .0049 | | Cal State Bakersfield | .0021 | | Missouri State | .0019 | | San Francisco | .0003 | | Indiana State | -.0008 | | USC | -.0008 | | USD | -.0011 | | UCLA | -.0016 | | Syracuse | -.0022 | | Arizona | -.0036 | | Overall SOS | .0150 | | Overal RPI | .0112 |
.0150 SOS points is enough to move our current #120 SOS to #87. .0112 RPI points is enough to move our current #42 RPI to #31. That is the effect they have on the full season...not just the OOC SOS and RPI. The change in just the OOC numbers would be about double the calculations above. |
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